Is it possible that we could run out of the worst fossil fuels...

[ZRB]

before climate change reaches its most devastating levels? Is there a chance that running out of oil could actually save us from the most catastrophic climate changes? Everyone always seems to assume, when talking about global warming, that we'll still be burning fossil fuels at the same or a higher rate by the late 21st century, but isn't that impossible given the limited supplies of oil? I'm aware that there are many other sources of C02 emissions in our societies, but wouldn't the end of gasoline burning heavily reduce those levels? Cars are the worst culprits in global warming, are they not? Forgive me if I'm way off base--I'm no scientist--but I'm desperate for some hope to cling on to.

Thoughts?

[phantom power]

1. Unfortunately, the worst fossil fuel of all is probably coal...

and we've got gobs of it. Plenty enough to continue turning all the climate-change knobs up to 11, for at least a hundred years.

[ZRB]

2. Well let me throw something else out there then

If we start seeing many more "Katrina" type events, and the climate change gets bad enough to wipe out large portions of the human population, would it even be possible to continue to pollute as this rate? Could global warming, in effect, check itself, before the runaway feedback mechanisms take effect? I imagine it would be quite difficult to run many coal plants effectively when trying to avoid death by resource wars, horrendous weather events, drought, etc, Not a very hopeful scenario I know...

[phantom power]

4. The positive feedback has already begun.

Albedo is decreasing in the arctic. Arctic peat bogs are melting and releasing methane. Forests are dying from warming-related problems like bark-beetles, drought and fires. Those dying trees represent a release of CO2.

I'm not sure how much difference a massive human die-off will make at this point, although I consider it to be on the short-list of likely possibilities sometime this century.

[htuttle]

6. That's a more likely possibility

When Greenland melts, the oceans rise 20+ feet or so. If the WAIS goes, that's at least another 20ft. Something like 2/3 or 3/4 of humanity lives on the coasts, along with most of our industrial capabilities, etc... There's no way we'll be able to build levees that tall quickly enough to save coastal civilization. That is likely to disrupt world economics catastrophically, if not destroy it entirely as we know it today, and would probably slow our greenhouse gas emissions quite a bit.

However, it's looking more and more that we are too late to avoid drastic changes, even if humans stopped emitting CO2 altogether right this minute. The big question in my mind, is will it get warm enough to melt those deposits of frozen methane on the bottom of the oceans. If those go, there is little hope of saving most higher mammals in the short term, I'd think.

I'd like to think there was some remediation we could do in a case like that, to scrub the methane quickly enough to make some sort of difference, but any plans I might dream up would require an amount of global cooperation that has never been seen before. If the oceans' food chain collapses, we'd have only a few decades to come up with something REALLY smart to get things going again. Worst case, it's back to anerobic life, and it seems doubtful it would get very far again before the sun burned out. Game over.

[ZRB]

9. FUCKFUCKFUCK

I dare say this post is the most depressing thing I have ever read. Sweet mother of holy Christ! FUCK!

[Dead_Parrot]

10. welcome to my world. nt

[flyingfysh]

5. my grandfather used to own a coal mine

It went bankrupt during the Depression. He told me there was enough coal in Arkansas alone to meet all the needs of the country for 100 years.

[lutherj]

3. This idea was put forward about a 2 years ago by Colin Campbell

and ASPO.

The article can be found here:

http://www.newscientist.com/article.ns?id=dn4216


'Too little' oil for global warming

October 03, New Scientist : "Oil and gas will run out too fast for doomsday global warming scenarios to materialise, according to a controversial analysis presented this week at the University of Uppsala in Sweden ."
( CNN Oct 2, 2003 , NewScientist Oct 2, 2003 )

[Dead_Parrot]

7. I'm filing that...

...in my "magic beans and fairy dust" section.

[lutherj]

8. Actually, I agree with you. I don't buy it either. I suspect we're

already hitting the tipping point in global warming. But sometimes this stuff gets so overwhelming that you take whatever good news you can get (however dubious) just to get you through the day.