It’s the energy and the economy, stupid

[4dsc]

I believe energy will be the biggest challenge of the 21st century.



The 21st century will likely be defined by three overarching forces: climate change, Peak Oil, and macroeconomics. The twin issues of climate change and Peak Oil are intertwined variables, and each represent extremely important phenomena that have slowly gained some public awareness. However, the third issue, macroeconomics, and more specifically the global trends regarding multiple petrocurrencies remains essentially unreported by the five US corporate media conglomerates.

Despite the general lack of public debate, the geopolitical landscape of this young century is increasingly being driven by escalating competition for energy supplies before global oil production peaks, and the erosion of dollar hegemony with the emergence of new petrocurrency alignments. The hypothesis outlined in Petrodollar Warfare; Oil, Iraq and the Future of the Dollar, is that the tragic war in Iraq is in many ways the first oil-depletion and oil-currency war of the 21st century. <2>

Indeed, the geostrategic drivers behind the current “Iran crisis” are essentially the same as the previous “Iraq crisis,” including: structural imbalances in the global economy, which is being exacerbated by the weak US dollar, and the emerging liquid fuel energy crisis that will inexorably follow the peak in global oil production. The fact is that the post-World War II status of the US dollar as premier world reserve currency is quietly but assuredly eroding. <3> There are three key variables to analyze concerning the changing status of the dollar’s reserve role in the global financial system:

1. Central banks may shift their reserves out of dollars (e.g. into euros, Asian currencies, etc.)
2. The Asian currencies could end their pegs to the US currency (e.g. China circa July 2005)
3. We could witness a breakdown in the pricing of commodities in dollars (e.g. a “basket of currencies” for global oil trade including the dollar, euro, ruble, renminbi and perhaps rial).

http://www.energybulletin.net/24172.html

[jwirr]

1. I am not good at understanding all the ramifications of this but

it made me think of something James Howard Kunstler said in his book "The Long Emergency". He said we need to use what remains of fossil based energy to establish other alternative forms because producing most of the equipment needed will be done using current energy forms. It is similair to the idea in the 70s regarding land use issues. With the dollar tanking this is probably even more important.

[4dsc]

2. Think of this

From the article: Little thought and planning have been given to how to transition to the realities of the 21st Century when petroleum and natural gas resources will become depleted.

What an eye opener.. We are not preparing for our children's future.

[jwirr]

3. Or even our own futures - did I hear some say lemmings?