Jeff Masters weighs in on the 2007 hurricane season

[phantom power]

The SST forecast
What can we expect SSTs to do in the coming months? NOAA's SST forecast (Figure 3) for the peak months of hurricane season (August, September, and October) projects a continuation of the above-normal SSTs at about 0.5 ºC above normal. This is a lot of extra energy to fuel intense hurricanes, but not nearly as extreme as the 1-2 ºC above normal SSTs observed in 2005. Long range forecasts of SST are not very reliable, but this forecast appears to be a reasonable one. It would take a major reduction in the trade winds over the coming months to allow SSTs to climb to levels seen in 2005 (slower trade winds reduce the amount of evaporative cooling, resulting in increased SSTs). While it is impossible to predict what the trade winds might do over the next few months, a sustained weakening of the trade winds for many months is an event that is unlikely. The best guess right now is that SSTs will be above normal this hurricane season, but nothing like observed in 2005. Based on this expectation, plus the demise of El Nino, and the fact we are in an active hurricane period that began in 1995, I am expecting a hurricane season perhaps 50% above average in number of storms and intense storms--but not a repeat of 2005.


The steering pattern forecast
The next key question is--what will the steering pattern be for 2007? Will there be a trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. that recurves storms out to sea, as happened in 2006? Or, will a ridge of high pressure set up, steering hurricanes into the Caribbean, Florida, and U.S. Gulf coast, as happened in 2004 and 2005? I won't have a speculation on that until late May.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=632&tstamp=200703

[soothsayer]

1. well, they blew it last year, so....who knows?