Karabakh Ceasefire Under Strain

[Aidoneus]

Karabakh Ceasefire Under Strain
An upsurge in shooting incidents across the Armenian-Azerbaijani armistice line is worrying international negotiators.
By Thomas de Waal in Stepanakert (CRS No. 190, 07-Aug-03)

Karine, who runs a café in Stepanakert, capital of Nagorny Karabakh, said she was worried about the news from Baku.

"Is it true that Aliev is dying?" she asked with a nervous laugh. "We've just done up the café and we don't want another war."

As Azerbaijan prepares for a presidential election in October and an expected change of regime due to the ill health of President Heidar Aliev, the region is bracing itself for new tensions in the unresolved Armenian-Azerbaijani dispute over Nagorny Karabakh. President Aliev flew to the United States on August 6 for more medical treatment.

Since the two sides signed a ceasefire in May 1994, the Armenians have had control of the territory of Nagorny Karabakh and its surrounding regions. Armenian and Azerbaijani armed forces have faced each other across a "line of contact". Unlike in the nearby disputes over Abkhazia or South Ossetia, there is no outside peacekeeping force monitoring the Karabakh ceasefire, which means that it is basically self-regulating.

That means that the level of tension across the ceasefire line acts as a kind of weathervane for the state of the peace process and also a kind of early warning system for the possibility of another war. The nightmare scenario for the Karabakh conflict is that, at a time of political instability in both Azerbaijan and Armenia, a small flare-up on the ceasefire line could escalate into a serious bout of new fighting.

And the last two months have seen some of the worst violence for many years.

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