Palestinians on verge of total chaos - report

[cali]

13 Jun 2006 11:20:47 GMT
Source: Reuters


By Dean Yates


JERUSALEM, June 13 (Reuters) - The Palestinian territories are in a state of near civil war and just one act of violence, such as a high-profile assassination, could trigger total mayhem, an international think tank said on Tuesday.

The International Crisis Group also said President Mahmoud Abbas's determination to hold a referendum on July 26 on a statehood proposal that implicitly recognises Israel risked igniting more fighting with the ruling Hamas militant group.

Abbas and the Hamas government have been locked in a bitter power struggle since the Islamists took office after trouncing the president's Fatah movement in January elections.

"Today the situation is but one tragic step -- the assassination of a senior Fatah or Hamas leader, for example -- from all-out chaos," the Brussels-based ICG said in a report.

<snip>

Lousy news. A civil war is the last thing that's needed.

[leftyladyfrommo]

1. I guess the road map to peace has gone over a cliff, huh?

Those poor people.

[Scurrilous]

2. This is the plan...

...put into place by Israel and the US and others after Hamas won the elections. Foment chaos, plunge Gaza into a state of civi war, have Abbas dissolve the government, and hope for better results in the next election.

Abbas weighing dissolution of Hamas gov't

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3262408,00.html

Senior Palestinian source tells Ynet president considering dissolution of Hamas-led government should security situation continue to deteriorate

<snip>

"Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas is considering to dissolving the Hamas-led government should the security situation deteriorate ahead of his proposed referendum over a peace plan calling for the implicit recognition of Israel, a senior Palestinian official told Ynet."

<snip>

"The official added that Abbas will most likely take the drastic measures shortly before the referendum of June 26, and that his aides have consulted with Egypt, Jordan and members of the Quartet of Middle East peace brokers – the United States, United Nations, European Union and Russia- on the plan.

The officials ruled out the possibility that the dissolution of the Hamas-led government will spark off violent clashes between the Islamic group and its Fatah rival, saying PA security forces will do a good job in maintaining peace and order."

[cali]

3. I'd agree with that analysis- to a point

The Israeli government doesn't want Hamas to succeed, and witholding tax money and other measures put pressure on Hamas. Having said that, Israel is not responsible for the enmity being violently expressed by both Fatah and Hamas. It's their responsibility not to attack one another. If a full scale civil war between those two factions breaks out, it's essentially a Palestinian failure and tragedy.

[Scurrilous]

5. Israel allows arms shipment to Abbas forces

<snip>

"Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said on Tuesday he had approved a shipment of weapons and ammunition to bolster security forces loyal to Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas.

Israel announced its decision amid an increasingly violent power struggle between Abbas and Hamas Islamists, who took control of the Palestinian Authority in March after winning a parliamentary election.

Speaking to members of the British Parliament before ending a visit to London, Olmert said: "Despite the tension and the firing of rockets (at Israel), I authorized last night the transfer of arms and ammunition to Abu Mazen," he said, referring to Abbas by his nom de guerre."

<snip>

"Olmert said he had approved the transfer "to strengthen the presidential guard so he (Abbas) can strengthen the forces against Hamas."

http://www.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/meast/06/13/olmert.arms.reut/

Sounds like someone has picked a side.

[pelsar]

6. chaos is probably better...

i guess sudan style govt is the "preferred style for some....either that or the iranian style....your right, israel should do nothing, havinga failed chaotic state on its border with various gangbangers and warloads really wont affect israeli security and israel is being colonialistic for aiding one side....not only that, its probably againt intl war and is simply "not what other countries do"

[Igel]

10. That's the side I'd expect Israel to pick.

But it doesn't falsify cali's point. The key word is 'allow.'

[Phx_Dem]

11. well it is the side that wants to negotiate

Putting blame/fault aside for a minute, the Israel gov. should do everything feasible to help the Pals return to negotiations. There is no good that will come from allowing/helping Palestine to become a "failed state".

[adriennui]

4. the palestinians are doing a good job of f--king themselves up

not everything is israels's fault. a stable 2 state solution is in israels's interest, there comes a point when blown up markets, buses and restaurants by insane "martyrs" leave a country's citizens weary and depressed.

[Lithos]

7. Link

http://www.topix.net/content/reuters/3970746240393979010217265118430738517161?threadid=2D02BQN6R1URABQN

[barb162]

8. There are basically two governments duking it out

at the expense of the average Palestinian

[Lithos]

12. It is rather similar to Israel

Minus most of the violence of course.

The similarity? The battle for the nation between Secularism and Radical Religious groups generally based philosophically and theologically on extreme 17th Century regressive interpretations of their core religions. In Palestine it's the Muslim Brotherhood/Hamas/Hezbollah and in Israel the various Ultra-orthodox groups of which the Haredi and the violent Kahanists are best known.

[The Magistrate]

13. Viewed In Cold Blood, Sir

These are developments that could prove beneficial in the long run. The multiplicity of armed factions, answerable to no one authority and contending among themselves for power, has been a curse of Arab Palestinian political life even back into the Mandatory period. It is essential that one authority alone in that polity wield violence for political purposes, or there can never be an Arab Palestinian state. It would be extremely unusual, in light of the historical record, if such a situation were ever fully resolved without open violence between the factions deciding the question of which one is dominant in the polity. President Abbas, in calling for this referendum, is essentially preparing for a unilateral declaration of statehood for Arab Palestine, which would be worth a great deal towards resolving the entire conflict if successful, but which cannot succeed if his faction is not armed master of the scene.

This unilateral action is, in an odd manner, a mirror of the unilateral Israeli policy embodied in the erection of the security barrier and the pull-out from Gaza. In each instance, one side is doing something it is actually in its power, or potentially in its power, to do, that is in its own best interests, and doing it without regard for the wishes of the other major party to the dispute. Each will be able to, in effect, declare victory, and thus open the possibility of standing down without loss of face. The result, though certainly far from perfect, could well be a tremendous reduction in the degree of violence afflicting the daily lives of people on both sides.

[Lithos]

16. I absolutely agree with the pragmatic viewpoint

This is a fight which has long been delayed and which will be the bloodier for it. The two represent the two major polarizations within Palestinian society, obviously the truth lies somewhere in between, but where needs to be determined.

As for Abbas' referendum, I am thinking this is a good face-saving compromise for Hamas in general. Of course in the long run it's a death sentence to Hamas as it is currently structured and pointed and thus they be fearing their obsolesence. (Course they also need to understand this makes Fatah also obsolete in its current form.)

[pelsar]

14. Lithos..not even close...

attempting to compare the present religious/secular fight with the Palestinians territories and israels own internal conflict between religious and non is possible in "name only."...that kind of comparison can then be used for the same tug of war that egypt has, the US has and almost every other govt that is run by seculars that have a large religious population.

the difference is obvious...the Palestinians are not just shooting at each other but the govt has both elements involved and both have power bases with their own active militias who also have territories staked out.

[Lithos]

15. Yes, I do agree

It is not unique to either the Israeli or Palestinian systems. However, I do find the juxtaposition between the two groups in this case allows for some rather interesting comparisons that would not otherwise be possible. I also think that much of the existing violence between the Palestinian groups is due more to the long-standing vacuum of legitimate government resulting from Arafat's ascension as a result of foreign politics than anything derived from the masses.

My apologies to Monty Python...

WOMAN:
Well, how did you become King, then?
ARTHUR:
The Lady of the Lake,...

...her arm clad in the purest shimmering samite, held aloft Excalibur from the bosom of the water signifying by Divine Providence that I, Arthur, was to carry Excalibur.

That is why I am your king!
DENNIS:
Listen. Strange women lying in ponds distributing swords is no basis for a system of government. Supreme executive power derives from a mandate from the masses, not from some farcical aquatic ceremony.
ARTHUR:
Be quiet!
DENNIS:
Well, but you can't expect to wield supreme executive power just 'cause some watery tart threw a sword at you!

[barb162]

9. the report

http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=4171&l=1

[Scurrilous]

17. Hamas: Zionists want PA civil war

Group demands probe into transfer of 3,000 US-made M-16 rifles, large quantity of ammunition earmarked for President Abbas’ Force 17; ‘Arms transfer part of Zionist-American plot aimed at igniting civil war in PA,’ Hamas says in statement; Abbas denies reports of arms transfer

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3263971,00.html

<snip>

"Despite reports of progress in Fatah-Hamas talks on the prisoners’ document, Hamas demanded Saturday that the Palestinian Legislative Council launch an investigation on the transfer into the PA of 3,000 weapons and a large quantity of ammunition earmarked for President Mahmoud Abbas’ Force 17.

The group said in a statement that trucks carrying 3,000 US-made M-16 rifles and three million bullets have crossed the Allenby Bridge in the past few days.

According to the statement, some of the arms have been transferred to Force 17 members in Gaza and Ramallah.

Hamas condemned the arms transfer, saying it is part of a Zionist-American plot aimed at igniting a civil war in the Palestinian Authority by arming one side in the Palestinian conflict under the guise of arming the Presidential Guard, or Force 17.

The organization said the arms transfer was conducted under the IDF’s full authorization, adding that army forces accompanied the trucks on their way to Gaza and Ramallah."