Ruling Palestine I: Gaza Under Hamas

[Violet_Crumble]

Middle East Report N°73
19 March 2008

The policy of isolating Hamas and sanctioning Gaza is bankrupt and, by all conceivable measures, has backfired. Violence is rising, harming both Gazans and Israelis. Economic conditions are ruinous, generating anger and despair. The credibility of President Mahmoud Abbas and other pragmatists has been further damaged. The peace process is at a standstill. Meanwhile, Hamas’s hold on Gaza, purportedly the policy’s principal target, has been consolidated. Various actors, apparently acknowledging the long-term unsustainability of the status quo, are weighing options. Worried at Hamas’s growing military arsenal, Israel is considering a more ambitious and bloody military operation. But along with others, it also is tiptoeing around another, wiser course that involves a mutual ceasefire, international efforts to prevent weapons smuggling and an opening of Gaza’s crossings and requires compromise by all concerned. Gaza’s fate and the future of the peace process hang in the balance.

Since Hamas assumed full control of Gaza in June 2007, the already-tight sanctions imposed following its January 2006 electoral victory have been tightened further. Israel curtailed cross-border traffic, pointing to the absurdity of providing goods to an entity whose rulers fire rockets at its citizens. The West Bank-based Palestinian Authority, seeking to undermine Hamas’s standing, has also done its part to cut off Gaza and prevent normal functioning of government; feeble protests aside, the international community (Arab world included) has been at best passive.

The logic behind the policy was to demonstrate to Palestinians that Hamas could not deliver and so ought to be cast aside. The hope was that the West Bank, buoyed by economic growth, a loosening of Israeli security measures and a revived peace process, would be an attractive counter-model. On both counts, the theory has fallen short. Crisis Group’s extensive field work in Gaza shows that the Islamist movement has come close to establishing an effective monopoly on the use of force and has a near-monopoly on open political activity. It has refashioned the legal and legislative systems and enjoys freer rein to shape society through management of the health, education and religious sectors.

Those intending to undermine Hamas have instead given it an assist. Persons who support current policy point out that Gazans are turning against the Islamists. There is real distress at economic hardships and anger at the Islamists’ brutal behaviour. Hamas’s harsh tactics, recourse to violence and curbing of the media and independent activity undoubtedly have generated resentment, disillusionment and fear among many who voted for the Islamists.

But that is only half the story. The flip side of isolation has been the Islamists’ ability to rule largely unimpeded. By boycotting the security, judicial and other government sectors and curtailing administrative links with the Hamas government, President Abbas’s Palestinian Authority (PA) created a vacuum Hamas filled. The withdrawal of the international community has reduced its leverage. Closure of the crossings has caused the private sector to wither, weakening a constituency traditionally loyal to the PA. Economic punishment designed to hurt the rulers has hurt the ruled. Hamas finds ways to finance its government and can invoke the siege to justify its more ruthless practices. The situation may be catastrophic but, from Hamas’s perspective, it is far from desperate. Far less popular regimes have survived more onerous conditions. Moreover, Hamas has had successes. Its new security force gradually restored order as militiamen curbed gunfire and kinsmen reduced inter-clan blood feuds. Criminal activity and mafia feuding have been sharply curbed.

http://www.crisisgroup.org:80/home/index.cfm?id=5341&l=1