A new survey of American-Jewish opinion reveals surprising views on US policy toward the Middle EastJ Street, the American-Jewish peace lobby, has released its first opinion survey on the level of support among American Jews for territorial compromise and a negotiated solution to the Israeli-Arab conflict. There will be those who may doubt the results, given J Street's left-wing politics. But the poll actually dovetails with surveys conducted by other groups, including the American Jewish Committee.
One of the more interesting results of the J Street survey was a mixed finding. When asked whether Israel played a "big role" in their US election vote, 58% answered "yes". But when listed among a group of other issues, Israel came out in the bottom tier of issues, and only 8% noted Israel was one of their two top issues in determining their vote for president or Congress. Theoretically, Jews believe Israel is an important political issue. But when push comes to shove, there are other bread-and-butter issues like the economy and the Iraq war that are far more important. This indicates that support for the Israel lobby is actually quite shallow among the Jewish community.
It's no surprise that Jews disapprove of President Bush's job performance, though his 16% approval rating is even lower than I thought it might be. Barack Obama beat John McCain in the poll by 62% to 32%. This is a respectable showing by McCain compared to past Republican presidential races. It should be a cause of some concern to Obama, however, who is polling behind several other recent Democratic presidential candidates. In fact, in the last three successful Democratic presidential races (Bill Clinton and Jimmy Carter) none captured less than 71% of the Jewish vote.
Several Jewish Democratic political strategists have told me that Obama has grounds for concern in his polling among Jews. Undoubtedly it will be a close race, and to ensure his election he should be polling higher than he is. It appears that smears on Obama's patriotism, ethnic and religious background, and commitment to Israel by the Republican far-right have struck a chord among some American Jews who have voted Democratic in past elections. It would be a shame if Islamophobia were allowed to influence the Jewish vote and the outcome of the presidential election.
Clearly, Obama's recent visit to Israel, along with the Palestinian territories, was an attempt to bolster his credibility among American Jews. His advisers realise it can't hurt to have the candidate praying at the Western Wall as his hand lovingly caresses the stones of the sacred Jewish site. But emblematic of the problems afflicting him was the right-wing heckler standing nearby taunting repetitively like a mantra: "Obama, Jerusalem is not for sale!"
Respondents to the J Street survey disapproved of Bush's Middle East policy and believe he should be much more engaged in lobbying for peace.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/jul/25/israelandthepalestinians.usforeignpolicy
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