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"The path to international recognition of Palestinian statehood by September -- when the Palestinians plan to bring the matter before the U.N. General Assembly -- seems clear.
The question before Israel and its supporters who oppose such recognition is how to create a detour.
Some say the way to go is through diplomatic suasion. Others say there needs to be a push forward with peace initiatives. Still others believe that threatening counteractions is the best way to derail the Palestinian plan.
Israeli officials have warned that unilateral recognition of Palestine could be countered by unilateral Israeli steps, like West Bank annexation.
The only certainty is that Israel expects the fallout from such recognition of Palestine to be disastrous. Several weeks ago, Ehud Barak, the Israeli defense minister, called it a “diplomatic tsunami.”
At the moment, the Palestinian plan is to get a sympathetic nation on the 15-member U.N. Security Council, where decisions carry the weight of international law, to propose recognition, and at the same to get two-thirds of the General Assembly to recognize the state of Palestine, in itself a propaganda victory. Should the United States, as expected, veto a Security Council resolution recognizing Palestine, the Palestinians would try to invoke the rarely used General Assembly Resolution 377, also known as the “Uniting for Peace” resolution, which allows the General Assembly to override the Security Council.
The latter scenario is what Israel and its friends want to avoid; its use in 1981 set the legal framework for a decade of boycotts of South Africa that ultimately helped topple that country's apartheid regime."
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