How Hamas-Fatah unity could break Middle East deadlock

[shira]

How Hamas-Fatah unity could break Middle East deadlock
If Palestinian reconciliation holds, it may release all the players, the US and Israel included, from the ossified roles of the process

Daniel Levy
guardian.co.uk, Thursday 28 April 2011 19.30

For the better part of 20 years, the policies of Fatah (the leading faction within the Palestine Liberation Organisation) have been predictable to the point of tedium. This week in Cairo, in agreeing to a unity and power-sharing deal with Hamas, Fatah surprised. Yes, Palestinian national reconciliation has been tried before, fleetingly and unenthusiastically, following a Saudi-brokered arrangement in spring 2007, and it may again unravel. But this time, Fatah's move appears to be a more calculated and profound break with past practice – and the anticipated opprobrium of the US seems to weigh less heavily.

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http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/apr/28/palestinian-territories-hamas

This article was written by one of the founders of J-Street. I'm interested in others' opinions of this OP-ED.

[leveymg]

1. Fatah is a dead political movement, and it matters much more what the rest of the world does than US

responses at this point.

The rest of the world will increasingly recognize a Hamas-dominated Palestinian state, no matter what the Israelis think about that. Israel and Palestine are increasingly irrelevant to the rest of the region, which is changing dramatically in ways that don't suit Mr. Netanyahu and his regime. His Administration will also be gone in less than a year and a half - g-d only knows what replaces it. Hopefully, more realistic and fewer mirrored shades that only reflect the wearer.

[aranthus]

2. My first thought was, "what has this guy been drinking?"

My second was, "What has this guy been smoking?" A "non-violent Palestinian adversary," is the last line of the piece, and pretty much says it all for the delusional and wishful thinking that apparently is J-Street. Here's the deal as I see it. Abbas is losing credibility (such as he ever had). The blockade is slowly breaking Hamas. The Egyptians want to distance themselves from Israel, and thereby gain street cred. So Hamas and the PA get together with the agreement sweetened by Egypt's opening of the Gaza border. Hamas regains its foothold in the West Bank plus a lifeline to bring in supplies and weapons. The rising tide of revolution will mean increased radicalism (mostly Islamist) in the Arab world, which means more external support for Hamas. Fatah hopes to regain some credibility by the unity agreement and pulling away from peace talks or cooperation with Israel, but it won't be enough. Politically, Hamas appears to be far more competent and well organized than Abbas and the PA, and likely has more credibility because it has always been and remains steadfastly anti-peace with Israel. Peace negotiations are going into the freezer, as Hamas doesn't want peace with Israel and Israel isn't going to bother negotiating with people who don't want peace with them.

In the short term this probably means less violence from Gaza until Hamas takes over the West Bank. Possibly until they think that they are strong enough to declare a state with world support. Then what does Israel do? They may be forced to sit and take it, at least for a while. Meanwhile, Islamism continues to gain ground as the US abandons Iraq and Afghanistan, and they convert or revert to Islamist societies (Afghanistan for certain). I expect a major mid-east war within 5-10 years.

[shaayecanaan]

3. There you go, folks. You heard it here first (nt)

[ProgressiveProfessor]

4. That view is widely held and far from unique

Generically the expectation is that Hamas eventually gain power in the West Bank and then the fighting will get very serious. Between now and then relative peace with diplomatic maneuvering.

[aranthus]

5. What is your point?

As Progressive Professor has already noted, my position is hardly unique. Presumably, you think that I'm wrong. Why?

[shira]

6. Yeah, it's pretty delusional but this is what passes as "progressive" analysis these days. n/t