Rasmussen Wisconsin Numbers Just Released 10/20 (7:30 PM EDT)

[louis c]

Rasmussen Premium Data for Wisconsin was updated just a while ago.

The numbers are Kerry 47% to Bush 45%. On October 16 these numbers were 48%-47% in favor of Kerry.

The better news from Wisconsin is behind the numbers. Kerry retains a 2 point edge over Bush when leaners are factored in, 49%-47%.

Bush's Favorable is 52% to Unfavorable 48%. However, in the more important job approval numbers, Bush has 50% Disapprove to 49% approve. I want to point out that these two figures are not the same. If a poll asks the question to a voter do you "have a favorable opinion of President Bush" some folks my say yes, he's a nice guy. Those same folks may have a different opinion of Bush's job performance. Hence, Bush is +4 on fav to unfav, but -1 in job approval.

Kerry, on the other hand, is the challenger, and his favorable to unfavorable rating is more telling. In Kerry's case in Wisconsin, an all important "swing state" that Gore carried in 2000 is sparkling, in my opinion. Favorable for Kerry stands at 54% to unfavorable at 45% (+9).

Add to all these figures that voters in Wisconsin feel that the county is on the wrong track by a margin of 53%-43%, and you can see where the large (8%) of the undecideds are going. I can't imagine Bush breaking 47% in Wisconsin if the election was held today.

[TexasSissy]

1. Woo hoo! Gimme some cheese!

[Beetwasher]

2. Oh Thank Goodness! It Seems WI May Finally Starting to Firm Up!

Hopefully this will strengthen into a more significant lead...

[PSU84]

3. WIsconsin is VERY important!

With all the attention that Ohio is getting, its been overlooked that Wisconsin - which tends to vote Democratic in presidential elections - has become a battleground in 2004.

When this election is over the DNC needs to do some serious thinking about why Wisconsin and Ohio were not solidly blue in 2004. With the South, plains states, and much of the Mountain West so solidly Republican, the Dems cannot afford to lose states in their 3 base areas: the Northeast, the West Coast, and the upper Midwest. If these 2 states begin to vote like Indiana, the long-term presidential prospects of the Democratic party go from difficult to damn near impossible.

[louis c]

12. kick

[jefferson_dem]

4. Thanks for all your updates. Things are falling into place so nicely.

All over the battlegrounds, we're trending upward! Woooo hoooo!

[Arugula Latte]

5. Man, I was getting ulcers about Wisconsin

I mean, WTF? It should've been polling at least a 5 percent lead for months now. But, better late than never.

C'MON, CHEESEHEADS!

[Kierkegaard]

21. Hey!

I resemble that remark!

:hi:

[Barney Rocks]

6. thank goodness

we cannot afford to lose Wisconsin. What was going on there anyway?

I am very relieved.

[louis c]

20. kick

[unfrigginreal]

7. Great to see this

Gallup is releasing a crap poll on Wisconsin and it's just as bogus as their National polls.

[jezebel]

9. Yeah, I saw the Gallup BS Wisconsin poll. They probably polled 98% Rep.

and 2% Dems. Because according to Gallup, Republican's are soooo much more motivated.

[unfrigginreal]

10. Actually, it's showing the Dems are more fired up than the Pukes

It's showing the race 2pts. closer in LV than RV. It's still crap though because as you say they do in fact sample more Pukes than Dems.

[lancdem]

13. All their state polls are

[sontec]

8. WI

My entire family is from Sheboygan. All catholics. The pedophile priests are urging support for * 'cuz of abortion. It's pretty scary. Even though the pope said invading Iraq was an afront to GOD. WTF.

[Lefta Dissenter]

16. Tell your family

that the abortion rate increased dramatically under the bush regime. I just printed up something about that to send to my repub bro-in-law, for whom abortion is a central issue. (it came from the PRISM ePistle email, though I don't have a link right now - pm me if you want me to look for it tomorrow).

Add to that the fact that at one time, bush said that the matter of abortion should be between the woman and her doctor. (from the flier "Flip-Flopper In Chief" at the American Progress site)

Add to that the fact that Kerry doesn't believe in abortion, either, it's just that he doesn't feel that he should impose HIS moral or religious judgment on others.

How am I doing for an agnostic, trying to convince my evangelical bro-in-law to vote for Kerry? :)

[Chili]

11. louis c, I know I said it before,...

...but I so appreciate your poll threads!

[RevCheesehead]

14. Can I say it? Please???

I TOLD YOU SO!!!!!!!!!!!!
O8)

[louis c]

15. We will carry all of Gore's states

plus Fla, Ohio, NH, WV, and Nevada.

I hope that will be enough to win (sarcasm off)

[brook]

17. Echoing what's been said...

I appreciate your poll threads very much. Thank you.

[Guaranteed]

18. If we get OH and WI, we'll win

with one other state, even NH.

[Kathleen04]

19. Looking good

We can't afford to lose any Gore states, so this is great news.

[DemocracyInaction]

22. Indeed...and if someone can locate the poll that was here

yesterday from WSJ or the Post ?? complete with electoral map, that is the type of results they had for Wisconsin (in fact, I thought they even had it by 4 points for Kerry). Thus, goddamn that sonofabitch Gallup again (posted here a few minutes ago)and all the willing whores out there promoting it. Bastards