Let’s play “what-if” with FLORIDA and OHIO...

[TruthIsAll]

Let’s play “what-if” with FL and OH.

Assume all else the same, then based on today’s numbers, if Kerry

wins FL, loses OH, he has a 98.5% win prob with 308 EV.
loses FL, wins OH, he has a 97% win prob with 301 EV.
loses FL, loses OH, he has a 77% win prob with 281 EV.
wins FL, wins OH, he has a 99.56% win prob with 328 EV.

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/

[Anarcho-Socialist]

1. I think Kerry will win both, despite attempts at voter fraud by GOP

[0007]

2. .....me too!

[leftchick]

7. me three!

:hi: hey triple 07!

[liberal N proud]

3. The Voter fraud in OH is real

One tactic taking place is miss-spelling ethnic sounding names on new registrations.
I know of several people who have had problems with their name.
When they call the registration office, they are told it will not be a problem.
Lawyers say otherwise.

[michigandem2]

4. well can't they use "provisional ballots" or

will that then be determined that they are not "registered"?

[liberal N proud]

6. I question if they will even give them a provisional ballot

Things are going to get ugly here, I can feel it.

[VolcanoJen]

12. That's where Ohio Dem Poll Watchers come into play.

Poll watchers will be at voting sites to be certain that denied voters are given a chance to cast a provisional ballot.

[onehandle]

5. He needs one of them.

This has been true since we lost our President Gore.

[TruthIsAll]

8. He needs ONE to have a decent chance, and will win if he gets TWO.

Ah, Diebold...

[TruthIsAll]

9. OH polls are moving kerry's way.

Look for Election model update this eve

[Awsi Dooger]

10. No chance Kerry has 77% win probability without Ohio or Florida

Just look at that in reverse. It says Bush has only a 23% chance to receive 223+ additional electoral votes, even if you concede him Ohio and Florida, the two most pursued prizes. States that figure to mirror the nation's preference, or extremely close.

Essentially you are proposing a parlay that defies mathematical odds -- that Bush wins Florida and Ohio, while Kerry wins Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Oregon, New Hampshire, Nevada, New Mexico and one other, probably Colorado, Arizona, Arkansas or West Virginia. And somehow you are assigning better than a 3 in 4 probability that scenario would unfold, even if Bush wins Ohio and Florida. Hogwash.

For reference purposes, Kerry is much less than a 1/3 betting line favorite in EVERY ONE of those states INDIVIDUALLY. In fact, he's an underdog in several of them, namely Wisconsin and Nevada, along with Ohio and Florida and West Virginia and Colorado and Arkansas and West Virginia. If your numbers are that strong, you're in the wrong business. At very least, you should be supplementing your income to the tune of a personal island in the Caribbean.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

11. Look. It is possible

but it assumes that they "steal them":



But, if they call both Ohio and Florida for Bush, then I will be freakin' the rest of the night.
It means, as you can see on my map, that we need West Virginia (not likely if we lose Ohio) and Nevada and Wisconsin.

[liberalpragmatist]

13. Being POSSIBLE doesn't make it Likely

Also, a NH + Nevada + Colorado strategy could work.

Also if we could pull an upset in a Bush-leaning state that's supposedly out of play - Missouri, North Carolina, Virginia - that'd definitely help us.

Even so, we have to be realistic - it'll be very tough for us to lose 2 out of the 3 and still be in the game. Earlier if you'd asked me we had the advantage here, but I don't think that's so true anymore. Bush is far closer than comfortable in Wisconsin and Iowa. It's possible for him to lose Ohio (but win florida) and if he picks off Wisconsin and Iowa (I think some other state too) he can do it.

It'll be close to impossible for either candidate to win without Ohio or Florida. Even closer to impossible for us, I'm afraid.

[Sean Reynolds]

14. I think he wins either Ohio or Florida....not sure he wins both.

[tedoll78]

15. My prediction:

- Kerry wins all Gore states, except for New Mexico.
- Kerry wins Nevada.
- Kerry wins New Hampshire.
- Kerry wins Ohio.
- The Colorado Proposition 36 fails. Kerry gets 0 electoral votes in that state.

Kerry Total: 284EVs.

Other prediction: The Bush camp desperately looks for grounds on which to base a lawsuit in a close state with more than 14EVs, but is unsuccessful.

Another prediction: Fundies go nuts, realizing that it will be 18 years without a GOP president picking a Supreme Court justice. Yup, 1991 through 2009 at the least.

[many a good man]

16. Bush needs BOTH FL and OH to win; Kerry only needs one

because he's got PA. It all boils down to these three states. Kerry will eke out a win in OH and FL's winner will never be known. After the election the United States will sell FL to Mexico....

[TruthIsAll]

17. You've got it right.

kick