Poster on Kos is reporting new gallup poll with JK leading OH 50-44(rv)

[59millionmorons]

Beings how screwwy Gallups LV model is I put more faith in the RV numbers. Poll to be relesed tonight on Paula Zahn show which she will be having a town hall meeeting in Clark Ohio.

Gallup/CNN/USA Today
likely voters:
Kerry 48
Bush 47
Nader 1

registered:
Kerry 50
Bush 44
Nader 1

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2004/10/21/145256/59

[Arugula Latte]

1. Wow! Did Gallup forget to rig their numbers?

Next time, Gallup people, you have to remember to add 10 percent more Repubs to your sample, 'kay?

[durablend]

15. They'll NEVER report it

Watch the signal go out right before they report the numbers.

They'll blame the liburul rats in CNN Center.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

2. Looking bad for them. Very bad

They have to steal Florida, (which we expect of course) and they really, really need Wisconsin and/or Pa. and Iowa.
Their options are limited, and they must feel the walls closing in.

[soleft]

5. And this doesn't include NM, MN and WI - which he can win

[NewYorkerfromMass]

10. I purposely picked the minimum number of states in that map

It's missing Oregon, NM, Iowa, MN, and WI. That's 39 EV's right there. More than enough to compensate losing Florida.
And don't forget Nevada and Colorado!
We have got them in full panic.

[Generator]

3. Wow part deux

But don't they have to have already been registered at this point or they can't vote anyway? And if they aren't freaking registered by now, how um motivated are they to really vote? Just a couple thoughts.

[Beetwasher]

4. Yikes! Kerry's Even Winning the LV Category!!!

And this is *GASP* Gallup no less!!!! You can tack on an extra 3-4 points AT LEAST for Kerry!

However, I'll take this with a grain of salt until I see the official results from Gallup...

[xyboymil]

6. Pardon my igorance, is this for Ohio or nationwide? I assume Ohio?

[pmbryant]

7. I don't believe a thing Gallup puts out anymore (n/t)

[59millionmorons]

9. Me neither

But when you start to see 75% of the polls from OH showing Kerry leading it warms my heart.

[AnIndependentTexan]

8. NV also a big possibility they are very pissed off at Bush

[AlCzervik]

11. Do you think he's reliable?

i hate gallup but it would be nice if kos was right.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. I Think Gallup's Methodology Is Flawed...

but I don't think they are corrupt..

Paraphrasing Zogby any pollster who deliberately cooks the books is finished...

Also, look at the lv/rv dichotomy as the best case, worst case scenario in this instance...


Also, think about this I doubt Ohio is an outlier like say NY is for the Dems and Texas is for the Reps...

Kerry would have about the same numbers in a nat'l Gallup poll

What say you?

[freeminder]

13. kick

:kick:

[Thrill]

14. Oregon go Red?

Puh Please

[NewYorkerfromMass]

16. No. That was my map you are thinking of?

I just did that to show how critical it is for them to keep both Ohio and Florida

[sonicx]

17. gallup is crazy. CNN better report this, however.

and they better do it every hour. :)

[West Coast Democrat]

18. Didn't ABC News say last night that their poll had Kerry ahead in Ohio?

I don't have a link, but I think they reported it on TV.

[DemocracyInaction]

19. Saw the Gallup guy yesterday trying to "splain' himself and what

I picked up (and had heard elsewhere) is that they pressure any undecided to pick someone. Perhaps now we are seeing that there are less undecided but more firm votes OR that when pressed the people don't immediately do the "Bush knee jerk" which means something is swimming around in their wee litte brains. Bet Gallup man is wetting his pants about now if this is true.

[Doosh]

20. 50-44 in GALLUP means he's really up 56-43