Rasmussen Battleground Polls for 10/21

[louis c]

As my lovely wife says, "every day can't be Christmas".

In tracking, there will be good days and not so good days. Today is not so good.

Rasmussen 3 day national tracking poll has it Bush 48.8% to Kerry 46.2%. This is a 1.1% bush gain from yesterday.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com

Zogby has it 46% for Bush to 45% for Kerry in the tracking of the same days, nationally.

http://www.zogby.com

Rasmussen's 7 day rolling averages for 5 key battleground states are:

Florida, Bush 49%-47% (This is a 2 point Bush gain from yesterday, and his first one day gain in nearly 12 days)

Michigan, Kerry 49%-46% (This is a 1 point Bush gain from yesterday)

Ohio, Bush 49%-46% (This is a 2 point Bush gain from yesterday)

Minnesota, Tie 47% (This in unchanged from yesterday)

Pennsylvania, Kerry 50%-46% (This is unchanged from yesterday)

[DemocratSinceBirth]

1. Rasmussen Is A GOP Flack

I hope you didn't spend good money on those polls

[louis c]

5. Zogby is a Dem

and his numbers a very similar.

I know that the undecideds and newly registered will go Kerry.

I don't watch the actual figure, but I do watch the trend. Until today, the trend has been Kerry, every day, in every state.

Some times the numbers aren't what you or I want, but I can't just report the good ones, and ignore the not-so-good.

This certainly is not bad news, and tracking will have ups and downs.

Tomorrow is another day, and I feel any state where Kerry is within 3 points in a Rasmussen poll, he'll win.

[troublemaker]

2. Less Bush gains than a good Kerry day dropping off

[Awsi Dooger]

8. I think that's right, looking at the daily tracking polls

http://2.004k.com/tracking/

Every one of them shows a Bush gain today, 1 point or more. That's likely a very good Kerry day, probably Sunday, dropping off the sample. Zogby reported on his website Monday that Kerry had a big day on Sunday. One DU poster listed that Zogby daily number for Kerry as being 49.6-39.1.

[PermanentRevolution]

3. Meh.

Swings happen. As long as Bush ain't topping 50% anywhere, I'm not gonna start the hand-wringing.

[Indiana_Dem]

4. It's okay. It's okay. Remember

#1 Undecideds almost always break for the challenger according to history.

#2 Voter registrations, especially among Dems is way up in every state.

#3 They don't usually poll new voters and those younger ones with cell phones.

#4 Looks like Kerry hasn't lost any points.

Deep relaxing breath......

Just GOTV

[in_cog_ni_to]

6. Ohio blows my mind, DAILY!

How the hell can those people support that man? Look at all the jobs they've lost! Why? Why? Why? can't they look at the big picture. You know, beyond the Bible. :eyes: My sister-in-law is voting for the chimp on ONE damn issue. Abortion. Pisses me off!

I think Kerry should LIVE in Ohio and Pa. the last week of the campaign. Hit them HARD! Send all his big guns there. Maybe the Big Dawg could hit Ohio, just once?

[snowbear]

7. Scott Rasmussen.....

...LOL!! :puke: :puke: :puke: :puke: :puke:

[louis c]

9. Well

You might not like him, but his numbers a very close to Zogby.

I agree, there will be a surprise election night. The new registrations are off the radar screen, and will break better than 2 to 1 for Kerry.

That will be all the pundit's excuse. Kerry will win 51% to 47%, and they all will say that the newbies fooled them.

I love these numbers, even though the trend line didn't favor us today.

As far as newbies are concerned, their impact will be even greater in the swing states, where there is a higher concentration of the Dems efforts.

[DemocracyInaction]

10. What do we know about all these new "registers"????

Just tonight a news article in my local paper in Maine said that 5,200 new registrations (basically college campuses) but that they really don't know how this will effect the election in that most of them are registered "Independent". We have a lot of little rich private colleges here that have been very active. I wish I knew a bit more about all these new people and their registrations. Unless they actually designated a party, I don't know how any of us know what they will do. I would assume there are a lot of new registers in the country that also put down "independent". Anybody have any stats????

[louis c]

11. Here's the latest

I saw Tim Russert on CNBC say that "by all accounts, these new registrants will go to Kerry by a huge margin" but that "Repukes think they will stay home".

However, the most recent data that I have is from Zogby. Read the italicized print under yesterday's tracking poll.

Here's the link:

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=897

[Awsi Dooger]

12. Now wait a minute

You have quotation marks around "Repukes think they will stay home," attributed to Russert.

Darn, wish I'd heard that. New respect for Russert and his hip lingo.

[louis c]

13. Well, I guess I misquoted him

He actually said "Republicans", but I hate to use that nasty word.

Repuke is my word, sorry.