Reducing it to the simplest possible Electoral equation

[featherman]

PA is Kerry's. The other states will likely break along 2000 lines with some flips one way or the other. While I know there are a bunch of other alternate scenarios, I am reducing it to the simplest for the sake of argument. Therefore:

Kerry needs to win EITHER OH or FL
Bush needs to win BOTH

Which task would YOU rather face as a political strategist?

[papau]

1. Bush wins FL, flips WI , MO/ IA, and NM and wins in House is my nightmare!

Kerry winning NH, Ohio and PA may not be enough.

:-(

[featherman]

3. Believable but unlikely

In my model NM is quite solid for Kerry. IA and WI are trending back to the DEM side as they have for the past four elections. MO is probably Bush unless Kerry moves to more that about a 2.5% margin.

[Progressive420]

4. but Kerry i think is going to get WV, and VA all the polls are showing

the races in these states are with in Kerry's grasp which is a major accomplishment all things considered

[Alleycat]

2. Any idea how we are doing

in FL or OH? I would like to get some feedback from the ground. I'm in PA and see the signs, bumper stickers, I hear what people are talking about on the streets and stores. I just had a feeling we would not go for * even though the poll were saying he was up. It is still close here but I feel much better today then in early Sept.

[papau]

5. Other October 21, 2004 Polls

Other October 21, 2004 Polls as Bush tries to retain Red State Florida, New Hampshire and Ohio:

AP-Ipsos Poll: Kerry Leads by 3 ...49-46 LV's, Bush's approval rating at 47

Marist Poll: John Kerry and George Bush are tied at 47 percent of nation-wide RV's, approval rating at 49 percent of RV's.

Harris Poll: Kerry Ahead by 7 in 17 Swing States, Down 2... 48-46.. Nation-wide

Pew Research PRC Poll: John Kerry and George Bush are tied at 45 percent RV, battleground states Kerry leads 49-43 percent, and Bush's approval rating is 44

Economist/YouGov Poll: John Kerry leads George Bush 48-46 RV, Bush's approval rating is 44

NBC News/Wall St. Journal Poll: Bush leads Kerry 48-46 percent of nation-wide RV's, with 2 percent for Nader
================================================================
Kerry Leads by 6 in Maine 51-45 LV SurveyUSA Poll

Kerry Ahead by 3 in Ohio 50-47 LV ABC News/TNS Poll

Kerry Up 1% in New Mexico 48-47 LV American Research Group Poll

Kerry Has Edge in NH Bush 47-41 LV Suffolk University/News 7 Poll although tied at 47 LV American Research Group Poll

Kerry Holds Lead in Two Oregon Polls 52-45 RV CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll, and 50-44 LV Tribune/KOIN Poll conducted by Research 2000

Kerry WI Poll Leads By 5% 48-43 LV Wisconsin Public Radio Poll, conducted by St. Norbert's College Survey Center, although tied 47 LV's in American Research Group Poll

[goodwalt]

7. I keep seeing posts

flipping out over poll numbers. Any way you could cut and paste THIS response to chill out our freaking brethren?

[papau]

10. Good idea - I posted it as a new thread :-)

:-)

[pabloseb]

6. It could be...

that Kerry carries OH and still loses. OH alone puts him at 280 EVs. So if any two of NM, IA, WI are lost, the chimp wins. Taking NH would compensate for NM+IA (always assuming an OH win), but if Kerry loses WI and any other blue state, then carrying OH+NH won't be enough.

If Kerry wins FL, then he wins unless three blue states (for example, IA, NM and WI) go red.

If Kerry wins any of VA, CO, MO, WV, AR or NV, then he obviously also wins FL, OH and all blue states in a landslide and all this speculation becomes worthless.

I think Kerry will win the electoral college but just barely. He'll win OH, WI and NM. Not so sure about IA and NH. FL is possible but they'll try to steal it. The other red swing states (VA, CO, MO, WV, AR, NV) are a long shot imo.

[tedoll78]

8. Of course, Kerry's.

Look at the recent Ohio polls. Kerry leads in all but one so far this week. Add the undecideds' tilt, the newly-registered voters, and the full force of all of those 527s, and Kerry's job there is a bit easier than many will think.

Kerry will win all of Gore's states, but exchanging New Mexico's 5EVs for Nevada's 5EVs.
(unless I'm missing new polls showing Kerry ahead or tied in NM, in which case he'll win both)
With all of Gore's states, Kerry is at 260EVs.
Add New Hampshire to get to 264EVs.
Add Ohio to get to 284EVs.

Kerry would then be able to even lose one or two small states. If things don't go well in Iowa and NM/NV, for instance.. oh well.. we still win. If he holds Iowa and one of NM/NV but loses WI, too bad for Bush.. we still win.

[Awsi Dooger]

9. Two chances is always preferable to one

That's why sportsbooks clean up when bettors make parlays. The house only needs one result to break their way, not two or more.

I agree with the Florida or Ohio assessment for Kerry. The continuing threads that we can win without either state are ones I should stop responding to. Those posters don't want to accept the mathematical improbability everything will fall identical to 2000.

Let's look at Florida and Ohio this way. Even if you give Bush an unrealistic 70% chance to win each of them indivudualy, the advantage is still Kerry's to win one: 7/10 X 7/10 = 49/100 or 49%.

[papau]

11. I wish election results were independent, but they are not - 70% can not

be multiplied by 70% to get probability of winning both -- sigh....

:-)

[Awsi Dooger]

12. Yeah, you're absolutely right, fuzzy math

But in a way you make a point that I've been unable to get DUers to accept. There IS a relationship between national preference and state preference. We can't pretend otherwise. When a lousy national poll comes out we embrace state polls, blind that they will follow suit if the national swing was legit.

For insance, some of these bad state polls today are no doubt leftover residue from the weekend, when some of the national polls showed a Bush gain. I warned about that a few days ago, that we would inevitably see some lousy state poll numbers beginning Thursday and Friday. State polls lag, regardless of the dates assigned to them.

That really was a stupid example on my part, the 70%. I'm so accustomed to making it in sportsbooks to my friends who throw away money on aim-for-the-moon parlays. Obviously whatever dynamic would give one side a legit 70% likelihood in Florida would transfer to Ohio, and reverse.

[papau]

13. Good point re state polls from last weekend - I think it will come down

to who wants the win the most - meaning the get out the vote - GOTV - effort.

:-)

[Awsi Dooger]

14. We should see where the race really stands early next week

The state polls now reflecting Bush's national gains from last weekend will have been purified of that crap. Some of the undecideds should begin breaking to Kerry.

I'm working GOTV on November 2, taking the day off from my job despite protests from my bosses. Luckily, they need me. My 71 year old dad is a canvasser for Kerry, going door to door in a 10 block by 7 block area in Miami. The people in the office say he's their "star," better than the 20 or 30 year olds, and let him set his own agenda.

[shivaji]

15. Not quite true...Bush loses OH but wins EV's with IA & WI