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I would like to put together a simple list for people to have when they look at the polls and for election night. This way we can all know how significant it is if we gain or lose a state. I have started with the following. Please help add more if you can. Especially withe explanations I have have started at the bottom. "2000" obviously means winning all the states we had in 2000.
2000 = Kerry 260, Bush 278 2000 + NH = Kerry 264, Bush 274 2000 + Nevada = Kerry 265, Bush 273
2000 + Florida = Kerry 291, Bush 247 2000 + Ohio = Kerry 280, Bush 258 2000 + Tennessee = Kerry 271, Bush 267 2000 + Arkansas = Kerry 270, Bush 268 2000 + NH + Ohio - Wisconsin = Kerry 274, Bush 264 2000 + Ohio - WI = Kerry 270, Bush 268 2000 + NH + Colorado = Kerry 273, Bush 265
2000 + NH + Ohio - WI - NM = Kerry 269, Bush 269 2000 + Colorado = Kerry 269, Bush 269 2000 + NH + Nevada = Kerry 269, Bush 269 2000 + NH + split Colorado = Kerry 269, Bush 269 2000 + NH + West Virginia = Kerry 269, Bush 269
Tie Breakers
If the results are the same as 2000, Bush wins. If the results are 2000 + NH or Nevada, Bush wins. If the results are 2000 + NH + Nevada, TIE
If the results are 2000 +Florida or Ohio or Tennessee or Arkansas, Kerry wins.
If the results are 2000 + Colorado, TIE If the results are 2000 + NH + Nevada or West Virginia or split Colorado (5 Bush, 4 Kerry assumed), TIE
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