NBC Nightly News -- WTF??!!

[theHandpuppet]

Where did Brokaw and Russert come up with those poll numbers?? Bush up in Iowa by six, up in Ohio by 1, up in Wisconsin, Kerry barely hanging on in other battleground states (like Mich) either tied or up by one!

Where did they get THOSE tea leaves? I've never seen poll numbers like the ones they were spouting tonight!

[dave123williams]

1. Well, GE makes fighterjet engines and Nucular power...

And gatling guns for the blackhawks, and a bunch of other fun, exploding toys...guess they're for Bush.

[Doohickie]

19. Bush is bad for defense contractors and here's why:

If re-elected, he is likely to expland the War on Terra. With even more troops in the field, and the sacred tax cuts in place (amen!), something will eventually have to give, and my guess is it will be major weapons modernization programs (not the sustainment of existing systems, the development of new ones like F-35's & F-22's to replace F-16's, F-18's, AV-8's & F-15's). That would be bad for defense contractors.

[olddem43]

2. Straight outta their asses.

[theHandpuppet]

5. I hope to hell you're right, olddem!

I'm counting on my home state to carry K/E to victory on Nov 2nd!!

[TimeToGo]

3. The news is campaigning

and I don't know why -- well, I guess it might be corporate America.

We neen to keep on them -- they must know that when they do that kind of thing -- lots and lots of people disapprove.

[sonicx]

4. Bush's ass

there are already new polls for ohio and wis. that have Kerry back ahead.

[fujiyama]

6. I think

those are a bunch of Mason Dixon numbers.

Sometimes they are pretty accurate, but I really doubt several of the results i heard...I think Kerry is doing much better in MI, PA, IA, and NV than the polls state. I also don't think he's trailing in MN.

After all, Kerry hasn't visited MI in a while. It seems as though the campaign is pretty confident about this state...and I saw some other numbers having Kerry up by 6 in PA.

OH is clearly a toss up, as is WI, and IA. I also doubt Bush is up by ten in NV.

If Bush is up by just 1 in OH (and I'm doubting that as well), then he's not up by 2 in MN...

The closeness is good in a way. It motivates everyone to vote...and we know that when people get out and vote, democrats usually win.

[lancdem]

13. I agree with your analysis

Plus, these polls were done Oct. 14-16, and many newer polls have come out since contradicting their results.

[DemocracyInaction]

7. This is the crap that frightens me---it now isn't a 'poll', it's a

campaign ad. There are Dems watching this tonight who right now are convinced it's all over for Kerry and probably a landslide for Bush and it will make some stay home. These fuckers know EXACTLY what they are doing. I'm just sick.

[theHandpuppet]

10. No, I don't think they'll stay home...

I hope THEY GET PISSED and become more determined than ever to vote. This whoring by the media may backfire in our favor.

[SammyWinstonJack]

12. See, I don't understand that at all.

It would only encourage me, piss me off and even MORE determined to vote for Kerry.

[movonne]

8. Just saw this on the board..

Anyone watching Zahn?Suppose to be new Ohio Gallup having K up

[lancdem]

9. It's those bogus Mason-Dixon polls NBC commissioned

All their polls are pro-Bush, it's a joke. They're underestimating Kerry's support something awful.

[David Dunham]

11. If those polls are right, Kerry will win all those states, except maybe IA

Don't be upset by those polls. All of those states are close. We will win them if we work hard because undecideds will vote largely for Kerry.

[lancdem]

14. I also think he's going to win Iowa

but it'll probably be close.

[TexasSissy]

15. I have. Check out www.pollingreport.com. This is a bad day.

It's not ALL bad, of course. The Bush job approval rating average is STILL below 50%, another new one coming in at 46%. The pundits don't pay much attention to that, while I think that is more important than national head to head polls.

Also, the battleground states - Kerry had a strong overall collective lead in them, which I think is now tied. Not bad. But the wrong trend.

Just a bad day. Tomorrow will be another day. Every little thing seems to affect the polls. The Teresa statement may have had an effect.

[lancdem]

20. It's not a bad day at all

Polling Report doesn't yet have the AP poll with Kerry up 3, 49-46. And that Marist poll showing a tie nationally has Kerry up 7-8 percent in the battleground states. All the polls, with the exception of the ABC tracking poll, have the race 1-3 points either way, making that likely an outlier.

Where do you get the idea Kerry's lead in the battlegrounds is gone?

[TexasSissy]

21. Rasmussenreports.com says that 16 state battleground poll

shows them tied @ 48-48. I know, I know. I think Rasmussen is slanted, too. But I THINK Rasmussen had Kerry ahead recently in the battleground states poll.

I call it a bad day because when I looked at pollingreport.com, it shows 16 polls taken since 10/15, and Bush is ahead in almost all of them, Bush & Kerry are tied in two or three, and Kerry is ahead in two (the Democratic poll by DCorps and the AP/Ipsos). This is what I saw:

(the 1st % is for Bush, the 2nd % is for Kerry)

AP/Ipso 10/20 46% 49%
WP..... 10/20 51% 45%
Zogby.. 10/20 46% 45%
ABC.... 10/20 51% 46%
TIPP... 10/20 48% 45%
Marist. 10/19 49% 48%
Pew.... 10/19 47% 47%
DCorps. 10/18 47% 50%
Fox.... 10/18 49% 42%
NBC/WSJ 10/18 48% 48%
CBS/NYT 10/17 47% 45%
Harris1 10/17 48% 46%
Harris2 10/17 51% 43%
Gallup. 10/16 52% 44%
Newswk. 10/15 50% 44%
Time... 10/15 48% 47%

But like I said, I pay more attention to the Bush job approval, which averages out still to be under 50%. The above refers to national polls, which I don't think are that relevant, since I read that the race is really in the battleground states and not nationally this election.

But you can see why at first glance it doesn't get a Dem. excited. I'm hoping these numbers are better tomorrow. I'm not totally bummed out. I'm just perplexed as to why this race is so close.

[politicaholic]

16. Tim Russert is a republican, Tom Brokaw is a panderer. Mystery solved.

[tinanator]

17. those are Diebold polling numbers

dont get them confused with opinion polls. They just read them a couple weeks early by accident.

[ochazuke]

18. Those were Mason-Dixon numbers

I don't think they are reliable. I have watched electoral-vote.com when one of their polls hits, a state often has a wild swing -- usually to Bush. So, I ignore them. I think other recent polls have shown that New Mexico, Minnesota, Oregon and Pennsylvania are all close to a lock for Kerry. And Kerry leads in Iowa, Wisconsin, and New Hampshire. Even Ohio and Florida have as many polls showing a Kerry lead now as a Bush lead.

What disappoints me is that NBC is citing these poll numbers as if other polls didn't exist. Why don't they do what we do, and look at all the polls, look at their internals, look at their history... to come to form a view of the state of the horse race?