Why HI and NJ appear to be closer, but why in the end it won't matter

[fujiyama]

http://www.tnr.com/etc.mhtml
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Bush is doing relatively, if modestly, better than to be expected out side of the battlegrounds--even in hardcore Democratic states--because they've been heavily buying national cable since March. And even on cable they've accumulated some real message over all those months.

Kerry has done relatively little, though the DNC has done some over the past months. In a place like Hawaii, locals have seen hundreds and hundreds of Bush spots, almost none on the other side. It's not likely, in the end, to matter in terms of electoral votes, but a central tenet of Rove-ism has always been to affect national numbers and create the sense of inevitability.

It's a fair point. Moreover, if he's right, then Bush is in real trouble. That is, if Rove's whole strategy was to artificially inflate Bush's lead nationally and then use the momentum from national polls to fuel a Bush sweep of the battleground states, then the fact that Bush is essentially tied in those inflated polls is horrible news for him. Among other things, this would explain why Kerry does so much better in polls that focus only on battleground states than he does in national polls: In some sense, Kerry's doing that well everywhere; it's just that Bush has obscured it in non-battleground states by running up a lot of garbage points. This also suggests the national polls could be masking a Kerry electoral-vote landslide.
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Hawaii has been seeing a LOT of Bush, but little of Kerry, because of cable ads. Ultimately though, the democrats haven't wasted money on such ads. They know what their polls show them regarding the former blue states, and this explains why they really didn't get freaked out when NJ looked like it was closer.

We'll get ALL the states Gore won by 5%+, like MI, NJ, and HI. There should be no worry about them.

So stop fuckin freakin out because Kerry is visiting some states to shore up last minute support. It's just insurance.

[fujiyama]

1. kick!

:kick:

[TwentyFive]

2. This is GOOD NEWS for JOHN KERRY - Get Out The Vote!!!!! n/t

[HeldsBelds]

3. this also means

there's the possibilty Kerry will win the electoral college and Bush the popular vote and all I have to say to that is HAHAHAHAHAHHAHA!

Seeing the repukes whine about the electoral college would be too fucking funny!!!!