New Washington Post Poll: Bush: 50, Kerry: 47

[Sean Reynolds]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/elections/2004/charting.html

[Melodybe]

1. Screw them, they endorsed Kerry just so they could rag on him freely

have you ever even tried phone polling, try to get someone to actually talk to you in less than 20 calls I dare you.

Kerry in a landslide baby!

[mvd]

2. Ignore it

I don't see how Kerry couldn't have had a good day yesterday in a poll.

[lancdem]

3. Doesn't matter

This poll understated Gore's support, too. The tracking polls never all move in the same direction. Zogby, TIPP and Rasmussen all have Kerry gaining.

It's all about turnout.

[Proud2BAmurkin]

4. Washington Post election day 2000: Bush 48, Gore 45

Gore won.

[Awsi Dooger]

9. 50-47 is not equivalent to 48-45

Another way to look at this, unfortunately. They got Bush's number correct in 2000. He received 47.9%. Only Gore's number was wrong. This time, the 50 is the troubling number, not the 47 or the margin. Not many ways for Kerry to win if Bush receives 50% or close to that.

Yeah, yeah, electoral college. We need to win the popular vote for that to fall in place. Any other scenario is a longshot we can't afford to depend on.

[sonicx]

12. MOE +/-3

also, Kerry leads independents. On election day, that means win.

[papau]

5. kerry drop by net of 6 in latest RV voting for new day?

That implies this "stable" 3 day poll is wildly unstable from day to day!



Other Neither Would No
LV Bush Kerry Nader (vol.) (vol.) not vote op.
10/28/04 50 47 * 1 1 0 1
10/27/04 49 48 1 1 1 0 1
10/26/04 48 49 1 * * 0 1
10/25/04 48 50 1 * * 0 1
=========================================================

RV Bush Kerry Nader (vol.) (vol.) not vote op.
10/28/04 48 46 1 * 1 * 2
10/27/04 47 48 1 1 1 * 2
10/26/04 47 48 1 * 1 * 2
10/25/04 47 48 1 * 1 * 2
10/24/04 46 48 2 * 1 * 2

[tritsofme]

10. Kerry's big Sunday just rolled off the average

And his Saturday that was the biggest ever in the WaPo poll rolled off yesterday.

Not too unexpected here.

[blackcat77]

6. Bush always goes up at the end of the week

[WI_DEM]

7. this is a rollercoaster

Bush was up six last week at this point, then a couple of days ago Kerry was up by two and now Bush is up by two again.

[DaveinMD]

8. its just

a strong Kerry day dropping off the sample. This is what happens with rolling tracking polls and why they should be ignored.

[sonicx]

11. Kerry leads independents by 1

Gore lost that by 3.