Do Not Panic Unless Kerry Starts Losing These States:

[GiovanniC]

Maine
Rhode Island
Massachussetts
Connecticut
New Jersey
Delaware
Maryland
Washington DC
New York
Vermont
New Hampshire
Michigan
Ohio
Wisconsin
Pennsylvania
Minnesota
Illinois
New Mexico
Hawaii
California
Washington state
Oregon
Florida

Kerry can still afford to lose one or more of these states (depending on EV totals) and still be fine. If Kerry loses any other states, that is EXPECTED. Bold indicates Kerry has already won this state. Italics will indicate any states Kerry loses. I will update as results go on.

[Guaranteed]

1. Yes, and OH. Thank you.

God, people are freaking out about the SOUTH???

[Daocrat]

15. Yeah, that's silly.

As of right now, I don't have a particularly good feeling, but it certainly isn't because of Southern states that we knew very well would go to * and we conceded a year ago. The South was never in play in any way, shape, or fashion. I say this only for the benefit of those who are new to presidential elections.

[Hawkeye-X]

2. Colorado will head Kerry's way.

Guaran-damn-teed.

[GiovanniC]

5. That Will Be Gravy

[Kokonoe]

33. Thanks HawkeyeX, I will update my electoral college map.

I'll put it in the bank. http://www.nytimes.com/packages/html/politics/2004_ELECTIONGUIDE_GRAPHIC/

[GreenPartyVoter]

3. Maine will go our way. Call it a gut feeling about my home state.

-----------------------------------------
Would Jesus love a liberal? You bet!
http://www.geocities.com/greenpartyvoter/

[NorthernSpy]

16. ... and I ain't believing that rumored one e-vote for shrub, either...

The same thing happened last time: Early rumors of one 2nd District electoral vote going to the shrub.

It didn't happen then, and I dunno why it would happen now -- especially with Nader being less of a factor.

[Zing Zing Zingbah]

21. I'm also a Mainer (living in FL). I agree.

Mainers aren't that stupid.

[Girlieman]

4. Excellent post

Thank you.

[TexasSissy]

6. Kerry can't win with just these, can he?

[GiovanniC]

7. With a Wide Margin, Yes

If Kerry wins every state on that list, he'll get 304 electoral votes to Bush's 234. I expect Kerry to lose at least one of those states... perhaps Florida. The question is which state(s), if any, Kerry will lose. Until then, there is nothing to panic about.

[TexasSissy]

12. Oh, thank God. I thought he had to win two of OH, FL, & PA. Phew!

[GiovanniC]

13. Umm... Heh... I Swore I Put Ohio on That List

My sincere apologies. We DO have to win two of those three.

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

8. Thank you for a voice of sanity.

[kayell]

9. Thank you. breath, breath, breath

[belle]

10. I'm actually thinking OH is liklier than FL at this point, but who knows..

[GiovanniC]

11. We Can Lose One But Not Both

Florida or Ohio... take your pick.

[peacetalksforall]

14. Thanks for the simplicity and clarity. Great job.

When trolls strike on other threads - link here.

Squash those trolls.

[jayfish]

17. Nominate It For The Front Page.

Sorry GiovanniC but you may have to revisit this thread often. Just a request though. If * does win any of those states could you italicize them?

Jay

[GiovanniC]

18. I Have It Bookmarked And Will Update As Much As Possible

[Moonbeam_Starlight]

19. kick

[rbnyc]

20. Thanks for doing this.

I was going to try to put together something similar. You are right on.

[Moonbeam_Starlight]

22. Kick

DUers!!! Keep looking at THIS list!!! THIS is what you need to watch!

[Moonbeam_Starlight]

23. Kicking it again

guys, we're still fine. Breathe.

[robertozucco]

24. kick!

[crickets]

25. Thanks

I kept trying to tell myself these things, but still I was starting to hyperventilate a bit. It's nice to hear it from someone else.

:thumbsup:

[kayell]

26. No italics yet. Don't give up people. It just won't be a landslide. BFD

[Moonbeam_Starlight]

27. Kick

[rbnyc]

28. kick

:kick:

[shelley806]

29. I just read a thread that Kerry had lost Illinois

[Hokie]

30. Kerry won it hours ago.

What are you talking about?

[Cyndee_Lou_Who]

31. not possible

[GiovanniC]

32. Not Even Close

Kerry wins IL by 60-39

[GiovanniC]

34. UPDATE!

Maine
Rhode Island
Massachussetts
Connecticut
New Jersey
Delaware
Maryland
Washington DC
New York
Vermont
New Hampshire
Michigan
Ohio
Wisconsin
Pennsylvania
Minnesota
Illinois
New Mexico
Hawaii
California
Washington state
Oregon
Florida

Kerry can still afford to lose one or more of these states (depending on EV totals) and still be fine. If Kerry loses any other states, that is EXPECTED. Bold indicates Kerry has already won this state. Italics will indicate any states Kerry loses. I will update as results go on.

UPDATE: WE GOT PENNSYLVANIA!
UPDATE 2: WE GOT WASHINGTON AND CALIFORNIA!

[Moonbeam_Starlight]

35. Your top three un-bolded

and thanks for doing this. This thread has been my sanity, dude.

[GiovanniC]

36. Fixed As You Posted This

Thanks.

[robbedvoter]

41. Make Ca. Wa bold - been given to Kerry

[durablend]

37. Time to bold Pennsylvania

Still in the game

[GiovanniC]

38. Editing Time Limit Expired

Updates Above

[GiovanniC]

39. Kick For the Hyperventilators

[crickets]

40. This needs to stay on page 1

:dem:

[GiovanniC]

42. Kick For UPDATES!

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=1286735#1289102

[NamVetsWeeLass]

43. KICK!

:kick:

[GiovanniC]

44. KICK!

Really liking numbers I'm seeing in Minnesota, Oregon, Michigan, and Ohio.

Some others too. Can't call them until the networks do though.

[Moonbeam_Starlight]

45. OHIO???

Do tell! I fully expect Minnesota, Oregon and Michigan but would love to hear about Ohio!

Just why you are liking the numbers.

[GiovanniC]

46. Crunching Raw Data on CNN's Website

Turnout numbers, exit poll numbers, precincts that haven't yet reported, and other indicators.

[mconvente]

48. we can still get ohio

polls open until midnight est and cuyayoga (sp?) county still only reporting 52% - we wil take ohio!

[Moonbeam_Starlight]

47. Kick

for serenity.

[JHBowden]

49. We're losing in Fl, WI, and maybe Ohio.

We can survive losing the first two, but if we don't turn it around in Ohio, Bush gets to run America into the ground for another four years.

[GiovanniC]

50. We're Not Going to Lose Ohio

Take it to the bank.

ON EDIT: I have a good feeling about Wisconsin, too.

[GiovanniC]

51. KICK

I'm not calling Florida for Shrub yet, even though ABC did. We can still win without it, and I have a bad feeling we don't have it. HOWEVER, there are a lot of votes that still haven't been counted and early indications are that those votes are predominantly Kerry votes.

However, this only underscores the importance of Ohio. Ohio is key. And we are going to win it.

[GiovanniC]

52. Kick...

I'm going to bed. I unfortunately have to work tomorrow. I'm sure others will keep this thread updated as much as possible.

Before I go to bed, I just want to say one more time for the record:

WE ARE GOING TO WIN OHIO.

Good night, and hopefully we'll all awaken to a Kerry victory.

[shelley806]

53. Thanks so much! I pray that you are right and sweet dreams!!!