25 states have been called -- and not a single surprise

[chimpy the poopthrower]

For the political novices on this board, some simple facts:

Of the 25 states that have been called (listed on the DU home page), there is not a single one that could not have been called EASILY by anyone even minimally knowledgeable about Electoral College politics. They are all "base states" -- both Bush's and Kerry's, but moreso Bush's right now because red states tend to be less populous and can be called sooner. None of the battleground states have been called yet, and there aren't as many battleground states as you might think. Bush will get most of the states he got in 2000. Kerry will get the Gore states from 2000 and, most likely, New Hampshire. Ohio and Florida are really the only two states that matter, frankly. Bush needs both of them. Kerry needs one of them.

[Heath.Hunnicutt]

1. Truer words...

It is easier for the networks to make 'early calls' on these easily-predicted states.

Indiana, Texas, and so on are not surprise outcomes. Neither is New York.

Florida has me sweating it a little.

Pennsylvania looks solid enough.

Ohio I think looks good. Bush may be +6% with 8% of precincts reporting, but... that looks right now to be lots of rural counties, about half reported. Counties that report early, partial results are eager. We know a GOP strategy this year has been to vote early to get mindshare. I think what we are seeing tally-wise in Ohio right now is encouraging. The expected red counties are blowing their, um, steam, off early. The urban areas will report next and we can look for good results, I think.

Don't forget the model at http://geocities.com/electionmodel

It called the states this way, too.

[kranich]

2. You got that right-

any shockers would be

for Kerry- to win either AK, MO, CO

for Bush- to win NM or NV

I expect Kery to take MI, WI, MN and IA

forget about FL, OH and PA for now- whoever gtes 2 out if 3 will win

[chimpy the poopthrower]

4. Ha! I posted at almost the same time as you, and...

...you think Bush winning Nevada would be a shocker? I would be surprised if Kerry won Nevada -- and said so in my post. It's really a longshot, although not as much as, say, Texas. :)

And NM I would call "barely Kerry".

[chimpy the poopthrower]

3. oh, and I wish DUers would take it easy on the novices

Most people are not the political hounds that DUers are. A lot of people just don't understand how things work, and the networks don't help. They go on about EV totals just so they can have something to talk about, but they don't explain that the EV totals so far are meaningless and that "base" states actually don't tell us anything. If Kerry wins Nevada or if Bush wins Wisconsin, THAT might tell us something.