Really good analysis of why Kerry is surging by Josh Marshall

[Raenelle]

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/

As I’ve noted in some earlier posts, the big question I’m trying to get a handle on (and I’m sure I’m not the only one) is just why Kerry is surging right now. Not just in Iowa, but in New Hampshire
too --- which is really the bigger question in my mind.

One thing Bennett pointed out struck me. By his numbers, each of the major Democrats in the race is quite popular with New Hampshire voters. (He says the only one who has significant negatives is Lieberman.) So if you talk to Dean voters or Clark voters, they like Kerry too. And vice versa.

Bennett’s theory is that this whole race is about who can beat Bush, and that candidates like Kerry --- until quite recently --- have been completely missing the boat by talking about their plan for the environment, or their plan for this, or their plan for that.

What people care about is who can beat Bush. Beat Bush, they reason, and everything else will fall into place. So who cares what your plan is.

As I’ve noted earlier, I had been thinking that Kerry would have a very hard time (perhaps an all but impossible time) winning back a large following in New Hampshire after he’d lost it.

But that logic was based on the premise that people had found Kerry wanting, had decided they didn’t like this or that thing about him. If that were true then you figure they wouldn’t go back to him. So if they left Kerry for Dean, and then soured on Dean, they’d go to Clark or perhaps Edwards rather than going back to Kerry.

But if Kerry’s approval ratings remain high and if he looks like a winner coming out of Iowa --- someone who knows how to win a campaign and someone who might be able to beat George Bush --- then many of those old Kerry supporters who’ve been ditching him over the last several months might be willing to hop back on board. And quickly.

Bennett gave me the sense that he thinks Kerry could quickly jump back to the levels of support he had last year. At that means up in the thirty percent range.

Two other points. Bennett’s view was that Gephardt and Edwards are too low in the polls now in to take full advantage of a big bounce out of Iowa.

The sense I get right now is that this is a Clark/Kerry race in the state. Not because Dean isn’t in it too. Of course he is. But because Clark and Kerry are after the same group of voters. That fight could get pretty intense.

-- Josh Marshall

This is so far superior than the crap I'm hearing on TV right now. I think the reason the pundits have it all wrong is they haven't grasped how very, very solid the Democratic candidates all are--a mouseturd is better than Chimpy of course, but these guys (the front-runners) all have weight and substance. So, voters aren't choosing the lesser evil, but trying to make up their minds from a lot of really good candidates.

[terrisel]

1. So true-

They (Republicans) have the money and we have the substance.

[aquart]

2. But I still don't see that Kerry understands this isn't business as usual.

That Bush isn't a normal opponent. That we are fighting for the viability of the United States as a democracy with a constitution and a Bill of Rights.

I do not get that from him.

He fell for Bush's garbage on the war vote. Why should I believe he won't be led around by the nose again?

If he's the candidate, I NEED him to understand.