New NH ARG 1/19 pre-caucus Kerry up Clark down Dean flat Edwards flat

[Feanorcurufinwe]

3-Day Results  	1/16-18  1/17-19
Clark 	        20% 	19%
Dean 	        28% 	28%
Edwards 	8% 	8%
Gephardt 	3% 	3%
Kerry 	        19% 	20%
Kucinich 	1% 	2%
Lieberman 	6% 	7%
Sharpton 	0% 	0%
Other 	        0% 	0%
Undecided 	15% 	13%
	  	
Sample size 	617 	617
	  	
Democrats 	432 	436
Undeclared 	185 	181
Undeclared (%) 	30% 	29%

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/demtrack/

[WatchWhatISay]

1. For clarity

It should be added that this is a New Hampshire poll.

[wtmusic]

2. Is this national?

Got a link?

[clarknyc]

3. May the best campaign win...

From a Dean supporter.

[The Traveler]

5. Agreed

Let us not lose track of the fact that, though we may vigorously support our candidates (I am a Clark supporter) we must at the end of the day, with whoever wins the nomination, stand against the Shrubman. And we'll have to stand together, or fall apart.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

4. Oh sorry here is the link

this is the ARG NH daily tracking poll

Beyond Ballot Preference - January 20, 2004

The interviews for January 19 were completed before the results from Iowa were known.

The pre-Iowa trends show that Howard Dean has remained steady at 27% or 28% while Wesley Clark has dropped 5 percentage points and John Kerry has gained 5 percentage points (mainly from Clark). An Iowa bounce could put Kerry in front of Dean.
http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/demtrack/

[Nicholas_J]

6. I saw C-SPAN giving a new ARG poll from today

With Kerry up to 21 percent and Dean still flat at 28 percent in New Hampshire.

The differince between a win in Iowa and a win in New Hampshire for either Dean or Kerry is indicative of who has broarder appeal outside of the region of the country that they come from.

For Dean to win New Hampshire whould be no big deal, as it is the part of the country he comes from while Kerry coming in secind place in New Hampshire, and first in Iowa is an indication of greater electability on the part of Kerry.

If you go back just nine days, Kerry was running at 16 point in Iowa, ten points behind Dean, eight points behind Gephardt, and only one point ahead of Edwards.

During the last five days, Kerry has jumped from ten point to 21 points, as of this morning, before the Iowa win, indicating that Kerry's rise in Iowa over the period from the 10th to the 19th was effecting his polling in New Hampshire.

During this same nine day period in New Hampshire, Dean has dropped from 36 point, to 28 points in New Hampshire, just as Kerry's campaign was experiencing parallel rises in both Iowa and New Hampshire.

This parallel rise in Kerry's polls in both Iowa and New Hampshire and Dean's losses in both these states are proably linked, with Dean experiencing a 25 percent loss in support in New Hampsire, and Kerry gaining by more than doubling his support over the same period.

Kerry's rise in Iowa resulted in his rather rapid bounce in New Hampshire/ Over the past few days, Dean has stayed at the 28 percent level, whil Kerry has been moving up in the New Hampshire polls.

Several New Hampshire Newspapers have indicated that many of the undecided Democratic voters in New Hampshire are awaiting the outcome of the Iowa Caucuses to decide whether to support Dean or Kerry.

Undecided NH Democrats
watched while watching Iowa

http://www.theunionleader.com/articles_showa.html?article=31945

Again, others attributed Kerry and Edwards forward momentum during the last week in Iowa to not to Dean losing many supporters, but to the undecided voters finally deciding on a candidate, most often one who they thought had better chances of beating Bush, as well as having personal qualities of character, leadership and trustworthiness.

Given to the results of today's caucus in Iowa, those undecided voters in Iowa seem to have found Dean wanting in those personal qualities.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

7. Maybe that was the daily

[CreekDog]

8. Wow, Kucinich's Support Has Doubled

1 up, 1 down, please don't wake me for that.

In a weeklong trend of a point per day, I'll pay attention, but it's not anywhere close to being beyond the statistical margin of error.

I expect Kerry to go up, and who knows what will happen with Clark, but this poll doesn't show any of that.