There weren't three exit polls, two preliminary and a final.
This was a Three Act Tragedy that could have been written by
Shakespeare. Unfortunately, there is not one Bard among the
MSM.
In this case, truth is stranger than any fiction the Bard
could ever come up with - even if he had a personal computer.
But then again, he never googled, did he?
ACT I: CNN
7:38pm Nov. 2
11027 Respondents
http://www.exitpollz.org/CNN_national2.htm
ACT II: NEP/WP
12:22am Nov. 3
13047 Respondents
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=265121
ACT III: CNN
2:05pm Nov. 3
13660 Respondents
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/US/P/00/epolls.0.html
........................................................
ACT I
7:38pm
11027 respondents
Scene I
A majority (54%) of the voters were women.
Th gender mix stayed constant throughout the vote.
Kerry, like Gore and Clinton before him, is winning the
female vote by a solid 54-45%. It looks like he's going to
win by almost 4 million votes.
Gender
Mix Bush Kerry Nader
M 46% 51% 47% 2%
F 54% 45% 54% 1%
100% 47.76% 50.78% 1.46%
122.26 58.39 62.08 1.78
Scene II
The Party mix is 38% Democratic, 36% Republican and 26%
Independents. Since Gore and Clinton each had a 39/35 Party
Id edge, Kerry is not doing quite as well in this category.
But the Independents are clearly in Kerry's column, 52%-45%.
Well, maybe Kerry wins by 3.5 million.
PARTY ID
Mix Bush Kerry Nader
Dem 38% 9% 90% 1%
Rep 36% 92% 7% 1%
Ind 26% 45% 52% 3%
100% 48.24% 50.24% 1.52%
122.26 58.98 61.42 1.86
Scene III
New players are voting big-time for Kerry, by a 3-2 margin.
Apparently, 100% of Bush 2000 voters are turning out. Since
122.26 million voted in 2004, for Bush 2000 voters to
comprise 41% of 122.26 million, then 50.12 million of them
had to turn out this time. Bush had 50.456 million votes in
2000, so it appears that just 300,000 of those voters passed
on, defying the U.S. annual 0.87% death rate.
But Kerry is winning anyway. Now it looks like 4.5 million
votes.
VOTED 2000
Mix Bush Kerry Nader
No 17% 39% 59% 2%
Gore 38% 8% 91% 1%
Bush 41% 90% 9% 1%
Other 4% 13% 65% 22%
100% 47.09% 50.90% 2.01%
122.26 57.57 62.23 2.46
.........................................................
ACT II
12:22am
13047 respondents
The cast grows by 2020.
Scene I
But just like the first 11027, they still love Kerry. He's
holding his solid lead among the women who still comprise 54%
of the vote. He's up by 3.1 million.
Gender
Mix Bush Kerry Nader
M 46% 52% 47% 1%
F 54% 45% 54% 1%
100% 48.22% 50.78% 1.00%
122.26 58.95 62.08 1.22
Scene II
Kerry is widening his Party Id lead slightly to 38/35%. It
looks like he's converging on the Clinton/Gore 39/35% mix.
And he's holding his lead among independents. But when you
think about it, that's to be expected, since only 2020
additional respondents are added to the original 11027. The
trend has already been established. He's clearly a winner by
around 3.9 million.
PARTY ID
Mix Bush Kerry Nader
Dem 38% 9% 90% 1%
Rep 35% 92% 7% 1%
Ind 27% 44% 52% 4%
100% 47.50% 50.69% 1.81%
122.26 58.07 61.97 2.21
Scene III
Kerry is even creeping up on Bush in the Voted 2000 category,
as 39% of Gore 2000 voters have turned out. Kerry's share of
new voters has dropped slightly from a 20% margin to 16%. But
it's still a very significant lead. After all, Gore won the
popular vote in 2000 and Kerry is winning a clear majority of
new voters. Would you believe a 4.2 million win?
VOTED 2000
Mix Bush Kerry Nader
No 17% 41% 57% 2%
Gore 39% 8% 91% 1%
Bush 41% 90% 10% 0%
Other 3% 13% 65% 22%
100% 47.38% 51.23% 1.39%
122.26 57.93 62.63 1.70
The fat lady is getting ready to sing. The final 613 players
are about to enter the stage.
............................................................
ACT III
2:05 pm
13660 respondents
Scene I
Something is going terribly wrong! The women, as strong a
voting bloc as ever, have decided to desert Kerry, despite
supporting Clinton, Gore and Kerry up until this short, final
act. Kerry now has just a three point edge in this extremely
important voter bloc. That's down from 9%. And the men are
moving strongly to Bush; his lead has grown to 11%. It looks
like Bush has a 4 million vote mandate.
Gender
Mix Bush Kerry Nader
M 46% 55% 44% 1%
F 54% 48% 51% 1%
100% 51.22% 47.78% 1.00%
122.26 62.62 58.42 1.22
Scene II
It looks like the Democrats are now saying the hell with it
all. These last 660 respondents must really be fuming. Kerry
has lost the Party ID edge that he had every right to believe
was his up until just a few hours ago. What did he do to anger
these last handful of Democrats? Even the Independents are
deserting him; his 7% margin is down to 1%. That Bush mandate
is still solid: 3.75 million.
PARTY ID
Mix Bush Kerry Nader
Dem 37% 11% 89% 0%
Rep 37% 93% 6% 1%
Ind 26% 48% 49% 3%
100% 50.96% 47.89% 1.15%
122.26 62.30 58.55 1.41
Scene III
And finally, the nail in the coffin...is pulled away. The
Bush 2000 voters who died, all 1.75 million of them, have
risen from the grave to keep Bush in the White House. The new
voters sense the debacle unfolding; Kerry is losing them as
well. His lead is down to just 54% of new voters. Even Gore
2000 voters are saying the hell with Kerry, we don't care if
Bush stole it from us in 2000, he stole it fair and square.
Now 10% of the Gore voters, fully 5 million of them, are
voting for Bush.
It's Bush by a little over 3 million votes, some of them
reincarnated, but those votes count nevertheless..
VOTED 2000
Mix Bush Kerry Nader
No 17% 45% 54% 1%
Gore 37% 10% 90% 0%
Bush 43% 91% 9% 0%
Other 3% 21% 71% 8%
100% 51.11% 48.48% 0.41%
122.26 62.49 59.27 0.50
The Fat Lady has indeed sung after taking time off from her
job at Diebold.
Note: The Nader percentage was "plugged" to force a
100% total wherever necessary so that the total vote would
always equal 122.26 mm. This does NOT impact the Kerry or Bush
numbers.
Printer-friendly format
Email this thread to a friend
Bookmark this thread
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
