Forget the polls in NH...watch the crowds and the weather!

[Raven]

First of all, I'm absolutely convinced that NH folks lie to pollsters. That is not meant to be an insult to NH folks...it's just that they are very private people.

Second, it's freezing up here. -20 to -30 wind chills today and tomorrow. People who care enough to get up from theor cozy fires and go out in this weather are to be taken very seriously.

Third, there is a snowstorm predicted for Monday and Tuesday. That will certainly effect the turnout.

Question: which candidate do you think bebefits from a low turnout?

[Guaranteed]

1. I dunno...will old folks be willing to trudge through a snowstorm

to cast their vote in a primary?

On the other hand, will YOUNG people?

I have no idea.

[Jack_Dawson]

2. 80% turnout

People love to vote in N.H. And they're used to shyte weather, so I don't think it'll be a problem.

[KaraokeKarlton]

4. The weather can have an impact

and the polls are meaningless because they don't poll a majority of Independents, who DO vote and are the majority in NH.

If there is a bad storm it will affect turnout for sure. As long as there is some kind of lull and the roads aren't too bad, it won't drastically reduce voters getting out, except with the elderly voters.

The diehard loyalists will get out to vote no matter what. It wouldn't hurt Dean, and might not hurt Clark much. Since the older voters are usually less idealistic and a lot more prone to buy into the whole "electablity" meme, I would guess it would hurt the Insiders most of all if the weather is bad.

[HereSince1628]

3. The candidates that benefit would be those with "hard" support

I would think people who have invested time and/or money to the development of their support for a candidate.

The other way to look at that would be that the candidates with the softest support are going to do the worst.

IMHO bad weather is likely to draw down the "I wanna be with the winner" crowd and make it a tighter race, but what then what hell do I really know?

[Davis_X_Machina]

5. Up heah...

..there's 'snowstorm' and there's snowstorm...

NOAA: 313 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2004

MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS AROUND 15. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

MONDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS 5 TO
10 ABOVE. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.

TUESDAY...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 20S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF FLURRIES. LOWS
AROUND 10.

This is nothing...

[KaraokeKarlton]

6. Actually, it depends on how much snow falls during the day Tues

and Monday night. If there is a lot of snow, it will make a difference. Even with plows, salt and sand, if the temp. is really cold and the roads are wet, that makes for ice, which will keep a lot of the older folks home.

[Raven]

9. That would probably be worst than snow...

as far as I am concerned!

[bicentennial_baby]

8. I've been hearing

that it could switch over to rain/sleet on Tuesday across Southern NH.

[SpiralHawk]

7. A snowstorm!! Could Old Mom Nature be Poised to Play a Part

Here's what Mom had to say in May, 2003:


(You are welcome to copy or forward this).

High up on the flank of massive Cannon mountain in Franconia Notch, NH, the Old Man of the Mountain lost his face - literally - on May 3, 2003, the day after President George W. Bush paraded across the deck of the U.S. aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln, and declared "Mission Accomplished" in Iraq.

I was struck by the sequence of events. Bush parades on Abe Lincoln deck, then the Old Man of the Mountain loses face immediately thereafter. What's going on here? Is the mountain trying to tell us something?

Bush Struts Carrier Deck in Flight Suit - May 2, 2003
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/2993415.stm

Old Man Loses Face - May 3, 2003:
http://gonewengland.about.com/cs/nhhistory/l/bloldmanofmtn.htm

For Granite Staters -- and for all who had ever seen him -- the collapse of the Old Man's face was a first-class tragedy because the Old Man was a symbol of honesty, dignity, and honor. He seemed eternal.

I always thought of the Old Man's profile as embodying the same qualities as Old "Honest Abe" Lincoln, whose profile is so familiar to us from the penny. So I was deeply saddened to see him "lose face," and could not help but note that it came right after Bush pulled what was basically a PR stunt on the deck of our nation's Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier.

What right did he have to celebrate and "Declare Victory"? Hundreds of our soldiers have died and been grievously wounded since that day, not to mention the ongoing misery for their families at home and the families in Iraq.

At the time I was inclined to take this monumental loss of the Old Man's face in the Granite State as some sort of cosmic sign that the heavens frowned upon Bush's hollow boasting.

After all, as we now know the Iraq war is based on made-up stories. Iraq had no WMDs, and no connection to the tragedy that befell America on 9/11. This is apparently a war of aggression and conquest. That's why our young men and women have their lives on the line in Iraq. it has little to do with our national defense or our true honor. It has a lot to do with power and oil.

Now that I have read Sevethson's essay about the candidacy of John Buchanan in the NH Republican primary, I see things in a different light. I see the loss of face of the Old Man of the Mountain as a possible omen that G.W. Bush may well lose face before the voters of NH.

Will Bush be surprised during the NH primary? We shall see.

Here's Seventhson's discussion thread on the NH Republican candidacy of John Buchanan against G. W. Bush.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=980708

Buchanan's campaign -- and his research -- are sincere, and worthy of every voter's consideration.


John Buchanan “Campaign Manifesto”
Issues, Questions & Answers -- January 1, 2004

WHY I’M RUNNING

A CHALLENGE TO
THE PRESS & THE PUBLIC.

Web site at http://www.johnbuchanan.org