Battle for Congress Hinges on Handful of Races

[ProSense]

Battle for Congress Hinges on Handful of Races

By Dan Balz and Chris Cillizza
Washington Post Staff Writers
Monday, February 6, 2006; A01

In Pennsylvania, Sen. Rick Santorum (R) has been running behind his challenger for months. In Montana, Sen. Conrad Burns (R), linked to the Jack Abramoff scandal, is on the defensive. In Ohio, Sen. Mike DeWine (R) is struggling to overcome a toxic environment of scandals that has tarnished the state Republican Party.

Snip…

The contest begins with Republicans holding 231 House seats and Democrats holding 201, with one Democrat-leaning independent and two vacancies, split between the parties. Democrats need to gain 15 seats to dethrone the GOP majority. In the Senate, Republicans hold 55 seats to the Democrats 44, with one Democrat-leaning independent. Democrats need six more seats to take power.

Snip…

Even if Democrats defeated those four vulnerable Republicans, they would have to beat two somewhat less vulnerable Republicans, Arizona Sen. Jon Kyl and Missouri Sen. James M. Talent, to pick up the six seats needed for control. Or they would have to beat one of the two and count on Rep. Harold E. Ford Jr. (D) winning the Tennessee open seat vacated by retiring Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist.

At this point estimates of the number of genuinely competitive House races ranges from a low of 25 or 30 to as high as 40 in the most optimistic Democratic scenarios. Democrats' best opportunities will come in Republican-held open seats, with the three best prospects, according to both parties, in Arizona's 8th District, Colorado's 7th District and Iowa's 1st District.


http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/02/05/AR2006020500773.html?nav=rss_email/components

[wakeme2008]

1. IMHO we will not be able to take the Senate in 2006 --- party jumpers

There are some very Dino Senators who, IMHO if the Dems were up by one seat in the Senate, jump to the Repug party so the Repugs still could control the Senate.

Just my thoughts at this time.

[Tiggeroshii]

3. Interesting idea, but I think that the more likely scenario would be

a Repug switch. The only one who would be in danger in my opionon would be Ben Nelson. The others are probably too worried about the stakes at hand if the Repugs win the Senate to not switch. There's hoping, at least.

[AtomicKitten]

4. are you serious?

I simply cannot fathom that happening.

[wakeme2008]

13. Ben Nelson

is one that comes to mind first. Just IMHO.

[AtomicKitten]

14. Jeez, I thought he was a Republic(an)

Only kidding. Yeah, I suppose if anyone would defect, it would be good 'ol Ben vote-with-the-Republicans-every-goddamn-time Nelson.

[BigYawn]

18. Why are you surprised? If my memory serves me correctly,

in the last 50 years many more democratic senators have
switched to the Republican side than vice versa.

[NativeTexan]

20. No Help Coming in Either House in Texas....

.....due to Tom DeLay and his crooked gerrymandering of the politcal landscape in the Lone Star State! I wish they could give that sumbich the NEEDLE for his crimes!!

[NMDemDist2]

2. two important races here in AZ and we're hoping to give Shadegg a

run for his seat too. To help contact these guys

www.pederson2006.com and www.paineforcongress.org

[Tiggeroshii]

5. There's some Repugs here in Cali that may have a run for their money

d/t influence peddlign scandal. Jerry Lewis and Pombo are probably gonna have a close race this year. here's Contreras site for anybody in the area. He is a Dem, even if it doesn't say so on his site -Found him from wwww.dccc.org, to find a Dem candidate in your area, or to see if there is one, goto



www.dccc.org

Anyone in my area?

Go to

www.contrerasforcongress.com to support a candidate running against Jerry Lewis.

Find your district here:

http://www.dccc.org/races/

[nuxvomica]

6. There's a strong challenge to Sweeney in NY-20 this year

The seat's been in Repub hands forever and is not considered "in play" but the Dems have a strong candidate in Kirsten Gillibrand who is personable and photogenic with a good resume and has so far raised more funds than all three previous challengers combined.
I'm thinking there might be other races like this in supposedly Republican strongholds around the country as well.

[ProSense]

7. Wow! From the links in this thread so far, Dems should do well. n/t

[Wordie]

8. Has anyone compiled a list of all the competitive races...and all the

longshot ones too? I'd really like to see something like that.

Also, this is worrisome:
The DSCC ended last year with about $15 million more in the bank than the NRSC. On the House side, the NRCC raised $22 million more than its Democratic counterpart, but ended the year with just $4 million more in its campaign coffers. Looming over all of these financial calculations is the sizable $28.5 million cash edge the Republican National Committee has over the Democratic National Committee, which could wipe out other Democratic fundraising successes in 2005.

If the Dems are to win the House, it looks like they will need to do some massive fundraising.

[ProSense]

9. Here:

http://www.dscc.org/2006races/

[Wordie]

11. Hey, thanks, ProSense. That's just what I was hoping to see.

I found something interesting too. I was looking for a similar page for the House Dems (it appears there isn't one), and instead found what looks like a fairly thorough analysis here:
http://www.cfinst.org/pr/020306.html

It's done by a non-profit, and looks both House and Senate races from several different viewpoints. Interesting. (The site itself needs a good web re-design, as the background is too dark to read the type easily, but the info makes it worth it.)

[ProSense]

12. That's excellent. Thanks! n/t

[Pryderi]

10. If it weren't for Diebold, I'd say the Dems chances were pretty good.

[PBass]

15. Democrats cannot afford to relax, let alone assume victory

It's going to be a dogfight all the way. We can't let up, we (and our candidates) must be better, smarter, BOLDER and we must work harder.

And there are so many weak and wimpy Dems in both houses, that a slim Democratic majority will not automatically mean anything.

[ProSense]

16. Focus is on 2006. n/t

[NCarolinawoman]

17. I'm thinking that it will come down to turn-out and will work in our favor

The non-rich Republicans will stay home because their lives aren't going well; and the Dems will get out the vote because we feel the passion. I am feeling hopeful about the house races.

If we win back the house we can impeach Bush and Cheney, and then we can have Pelosi, LOL, as our new President. (I can dream, at least). It's a fun scenario!

[ProSense]

19. Sweet dream! n/t