MT-Sen Rasmussen Poll - Sen. Burns (R) sliding down fast vs. Morrison

[swag]

via Swing State Project

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/February%202006/Montana%20Senate%20February.htm

February 13, 2006--Montana Senator Conrad Burns (R) has recently tried to shore up wilting poll numbers wrought by bad publicity about alleged connections to indicted lobbyist Jack Abramoff. Shortly after the January Rasmussen Reports poll showed his re-election prospects declining, Senator Burns returned to Montana to address the Abramoff issue. He also introduced a bill seeking to address lobbying reform. The bill was the subject of a January 26 press release issued by his office.

However, the incumbent continues to sag when matched up with either of two possible Democratic opponents.

When likely Montana voters are asked about a match-up between Burns and State Auditor John Morrison, we find Morrison leading by seven percentage points, 50% to 43%. That's a reversal since January, when Burns was leading Morrison—though only narrowly, 46% to 43%, a toss-up.

The senator is still neck and neck with State Senate President John Tester, 46% to 46%. In January, they were tied at 45%.

Back in September, Burns had enjoyed a double-digit lead against each challenger.

. . . more

Contribute to Morrison's Campaign:

http://www.johnmorrison.us

Contribute to Tester's Campaign:

http://www.jontester.us

[Ediacara]

1. ROCK ON!

I think Burns may end up sinking lower than Santorum.

[Wilms]

2. A hint of blue in the mountains of Montana? n/t

:)

[HillDem]

6. A hint?

We captured the governorship, the state legislature and are about to knock off the one GOP senator. More like a tidal wave.

[demosincebirth]

7. Go Mt!

[rockymountaindem]

8. We got the Leg. and the Senate Seat

We're going for the Governor's Mansion this year, and we've got a pretty good shot, with our guy leading in the polls so far.

[Wilms]

9. I'm learning.

I was aware of the Gov. and recently read about the prospect for the state voting for a Dem Pres. Hence the hint reference.

I like your title wave reference, especially. It's befitting an inland state! :)

[leyton]

19. Prospect of voting for Dem Pres?

I'd be interested to know where you read that - can you post a link? Thanks!

[Wilms]

22. I did a search and didn't find what I was looking for, but ironically...

This was printed today.

February 14 2006

All eyes on newly blue Montana, top Democrat says

By GINNY MERRIAM of the Missoulian

The national popularity of Gov. Brian Schweitzer and the upsurge of Democrats in office in Montana may give the state a serious political role in the next presidential election, Montana Democratic Party Chairman Dennis McDonald said Thursday in Missoula.

http://www.missoulian.com/articles/2006/01/13/news/mtregional/news07.txt

[leyton]

23. Thanks for the link!

It'd sure be nice if I didn't look at a map and see wide expanses of red farmland between the blue cities.

[Michigander4Dean]

10. Plus Baucus - though I've heard him labeled as DINO, DLC, etc. | nt

[f-bush]

21. Didn't Montana go blue in the '96? election?

[otohara]

3. Dare We Hope

I don't want to get my hopes up too much. We've seen over and over how ugly republican's get when they get backed into a corner, or it looks like they are losing.

[Hippo_Tron]

14. I am confident about this one, not about others, though

My top two pickup prospects for this November are...

1) Pennsylvania

2) Montana

The reason I am so confident about these two is that the incumbents seem to be genuinely disliked by their constituents. Pennsylvania is finally realizing that Santorum is an absolute nutcase. Burns is entrenched with Abhramoff problems and if this weren't a red state, he'd be polling as badly as Santorum.

The other races I'm not sure about. Missouri, Ohio, Tennesee may all look good right now but I think that those are all races where it will be close enough that it will come down to the endgame and the GOP almost always plays a better endgame than we do. Missouri has lukewarm feelings about Talent and Ohio has lukewarm feelings about DeWine but I don't think that their negatives are nearly as high as Santorum's and Burns'. Rhode Island is a weird race as it will largely depend on the primary outcome.

[swag]

18. Boy, I don't know if there's any reason to be confident about this one

when Burns' as yet unindicted corporate backers are planning to plow $10 million into his campaign.

It will be a tough fight.

[rockymountaindem]

4. Who's better? Tester or Morrison? n/t

[HillDem]

5. Tester

He seems to be the more progressive, plus he has a great image and would make a great senator. He is an organic farmer and he brings the party back to its populist roots.

Go Tester! http://www.testerforsenate.com/

[swag]

11. I think they're both quite good, though folks in lefty blog world

have taken a liking to Tester, and since picking sides in lefty blog world seems to mean smearing the other guy, some have unfairly tarred Morrison as "DLC," though what they mean by that is quite unclear in Morrison's case.

Morrison has been a good state auditor, has done quite a bit for the residents of Montana on health care, consumer, and other issues, and has gained statewide trust. He polled better than the victorious Dem Governor Brian Schweitzer in 2004, even in rural counties, and his campaign thus far has just been a lot better than Tester's. His fundraising and cash-on-hand numbers have been far better than Tester's, and as Rasmussen seems to indicate, Morrison has the momentum in the early polls.

In other words, it's hard to see Tester coming out of the June primary victorious and with anything left to challenge Burns. It's easy to see Morrison coming out of a strong June primary victory and going on to unseat sleazy Burns.

We'll see.

[Hippo_Tron]

12. The one who doesn't win this time can be ready to step up for Baucus' seat

Baucus has gotta be getting close to retirement.

[hatrack]

13. Wasn't Burns the one who got into it with a NW flight attendant?

Something along the lines of "Why aren't you at home taking care of your kids?"

Can't remember the specifics beyond that, but if true, I can't imagine it helping with anyone but the knuckle-draggers.

[swag]

15. Yep, he's the guy.

[hatrack]

16. Sounds like a real piece of work!

:eyes:

[swag]

17. Montana deserves better

and so does the US Senate.

He's a horse's ass from way back, a former TV ag reporter who should have stayed in his 5 a.m. time slot.

[yellowcanine]

20. Don't get sucked in by Rasmussen polls. As much as I want Burns to lose I

do not trust Rasmussen whether he has the Dem up or down. He is perfectly capapable of coming out with a poll next week saying Burns is now up by 7 points. His methodology is that bad.