Rothenberg on Dean: "As a strategy, it is a loser's strategy"

[Feanorcurufinwe]

Today, his bank account nearly drained by his go-for-broke strategy, his political viability in question after consecutive losses in Iowa and New Hampshire, Dean has settled on a new strategy. It not only contradicts his earlier one, but it also defies conventional political wisdom and marks another attempt by his unconventional campaign to plow a new course to the presidency.

<snip>

"As a strategy, it is a loser's strategy," said Stuart Rothenberg, an independent political analyst in Washington. "It assumes you can resurrect a campaign three weeks, five weeks, seven weeks from now, that you will have enough resources, enough enthusiasm, to make that happen. Each week it gets harder to demonstrate that you're a serious candidate and people aren't wasting their votes by voting for you."

Steve Murphy, who managed the unsuccessful campaign of Representative Richard A. Gephardt, said: "As a strategy, it's positively bizarre; as spin, it's the best he's got."

<snip>

Speaking earlier on "Meet the Press," Dean said: "If we get blown out again and again and again . . . if somebody else gets more delegates and they clinch it, of course I'm not going to go all the way to the convention just to prove a point, but I'm going to be in this race as long as I think I can win. And I have always said that I don't think this race is going to be decided until after March 2 or perhaps March 9 or even later than that, and we're going to do everything we can to stay in."

Yet by starting out as a candidate aiming to clear the field, and then arguing that he should not be considered a sore loser by remaining a candidate with more losses than wins, Dean has raised questions within the Democratic Party and among some supporters about whether his ultimate achievement will not be victory, but the weakening of the party nominee.

http://www.boston.com/news/politics/president/articles/2004/02/02/new_dean_strategy_raises_eyebrows/

[Hep]

1. If Stu Rothenberg says it, it MUST be true

n/t

[Feanorcurufinwe]

2. Just how is it that Dean plans to win by losing again?

[Hep]

3. Uh, Dean has lost twice and still leads

all candidate in delegates. What was your question?

[sangh0]

6. How is losing a winning strategy?

That's the question

[Feanorcurufinwe]

7. My question is how can Dean win the nomination by losing elections?

Are you saying Dean will win the nomination strictly through back-room deals, while Kerry keeps winning elections?


Dean and his lobbyist campaign manager may think smoke-filled rooms are the wave of the future but they are sadly mistaken.

[Hep]

16. See, we have this thing called a national convention

I'm sure you know all about it. About how there can be as many votes on the floor of the debate as necessary to choose a candidate. It's literally a free for all. Actual threats have been reported in past elections.

The really cool thing about the Dean campaign is that we're the only ones taking our party back. If things go as well in the rest of the country as they have in my state, Dean supporters will be chosen as delegates. If a nominee isn't chosen after the first vote, the floor of the convention will be stacked with Dean supporters.

This is how Kucinich benefitted from his deal with Edwards in Iowa.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

26. And why would the national convention nominate the loser in the primaries?

Why would the national convention ignore the votes of the people? Who are overwhelmingly rejecting Dean and his angry divisive message.


BTW, Kucinich did not receive any Iowa delegates, he did not benefit from his deal with Edwards.

[Hep]

28. How is your understanding of how the convention works?

Seriously, would you say that you would be able to lecture a poli-sci class on how it works?

Let me know how well you understand it, and we can discuss it. I'm not trying to be uncivil, I'm just saying that if I don't know how well you get it, I don't know what depth to go into in my explanation.

The national convention doesn't ignore the votes of the people, but it's just not that simple.

Thanks for the note about Dean's angry message. I couldn't have done a better job of pointing out how poorly many Americans understand Dean's message if I had visual aids.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

29. Face it, Dean can't win by losing.

The voters continue to reject Dean and all the fantasizing and dreaming in the world won't result in a convention in which Dean gets the nomination without winning primaries.

[sangh0]

Of course he can

but the explanation is so complicated that non-Dean supporters won't understand it unless you first explain how ignorant you are :-)

[Feanorcurufinwe]

36. lol

[Hep]

32. Thanks, but you didn't answer my question

Am I supposed to guess how much you know about the nuts and bolts of the national convention based on this reply?

Because a little while ago you seemed interested in talking about it. I mean, it IS a very interesting topic. But now you seem concerned only with something else. I don't even know what that is.

If you don't want to talk about this, please reply and say so. That way I don't have to keep checking back. Thanks.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

35. The question is, how many times will Dean lose before he drops out?

[Hep]

40. It's one thing

to be brazen about not understanding, it's another altogether to be offered meaningful discourse and refuse it, choosing to bait instead. I'll just take this as a complete withdrawal from the conversation.

This is where you and "Ignored" joke and laugh and pat each other on the backs.

It's been real! :hi:

[Feanorcurufinwe]

44. I'm asking how Dean's strategy to lose will result in winning.

[Hep]

48. And I'm asking how familiar you are with the D national convention

because understanding the strategy REQUIRES understanding how the convention works. So here we are again. I anxiously await your next several jabs at Dean.

[sangh0]

54. Explain it, and then we can ask questions

if your intellect proves too much of an obstacle

[Feanorcurufinwe]

56. lol

[Feanorcurufinwe]

55. Direct your answer at those who are familiar with the nominating process.

I will try to overcome my low IQ and ignorance and struggle through the answer somehow :eyes:

[Hep]

57. I've asked you several times and you have yet to answer

Why is that? You keep telling me that I'm insulting you and all I did was ask a simple question that you have so far refused to answer.

I want to discuss this with you. I really do. But I can't if I don't know where you're coming from.

[sangh0]

59. It's never stopped you before

I've never seen Hep ask that someone tell them everything they know about subject before he would discuss it with them. I don't know why this new policy has been put into effect

[Feanorcurufinwe]

60. Dean has a losing strategy

and your counterargument is to imply that I'm stupid. :eyes:

[Hep]

64. For the fourth time (at least)

How well you understand Dean's strategy is based on how well you understand the convention.

I'm asking you what you know. That means, what you've read, any past conventions you've attended, basically, how much information you've been exposed to about the D National Convention.

And you interpret this as me implying that you're stupid. So now we have a new question:

How is my ASKING you how much you knowan implication that you're stupid?

Now I get to anxiously await the answers to TWO questions!

[sangh0]

67. Assume Feanorcurufinwe knows everything

We know Feanorcurufinwe a smart person - Feanorcurufinwe doesn't support Dean

[Feanorcurufinwe]

70. How will Dean's strategy of losing will make him into a winner?

[Zomby Woof]

9. those are superdelegates

Those have nothing to do with his finishes in Iowa or NH. They can switch allegiance any time, and when the ship starts sinking... poof.

The real delegate count has hardly begun. Come Wednesday morning, after losing 7 states, he will even lag behind in superdelegate totals.

[Hep]

18. We shall see.

So far I haven't read any reports of superdelegates leaving him. As far as I know he still leads, no?

[Zomby Woof]

47. wait a few days

Once he starts losing the remaining primaries, even if those superdelegates don't leave him, the others will surpass him in all delegate counts soon enough.

I give the Dean campaign 48 hours to turn the race around or he is toast without the mayo.

[GR]

21. He Can't And Won't...But

7 mostly red states are not going to pick our nominee...Wait and let's see who's viable and who isn't...Let's not rush to confirm a guy who folded his cards when the going got toughest...Over 500 died as a result, so far. That isn't good enough for me...

[Hep]

23. Amen to that

War heroes who vote for war. Kerry did.

[Freddie Stubbs]

61. It has worked for Kucinich so far

You don't have to get more votes than the other guy to win.

[jenk]

5. of course it's a losing strategy if it results in losses

and it has, and it will continue to.

[Hep]

8. Feel free to let the media frame your language for you

I mean, it's only what has caused our downfalls for the past three years, but hey, go ahead and see if we can't make it 0 for 3.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

11. Why don't you try framing it for us? What does losing mean to you?

[Hep]

19. Two words

BIG PICTURE.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

24. It will take more than two words to explain how losing means winning

Dean's message just doesn't resonate with the voters. And the voters see in Dean someone who is neither competent nor emotionally stable enough to be President.

[Hep]

27. It really takes no more than those two words

One must be open. One must try to UNDERSTAND.

Dean's message doesn't resonate with the voters like I expected, true. But that's not a black mark on Dean. It's a black mark on those who voted.

Shame that people aren't ready for real change. I'm not giving up.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

30. So you blame the people.

Voters don't like Dean, or his message, and you conclude that the problem is with the voters.


Thanks for the vote of confidence in democracy. :eyes:

[sangh0]

31. He blames the stupid people

who can't understand how "losing is winning" :-)

[Hep]

34. Wrongo!

Voters may not have liked what they THINK Dean's message is. But if you asked them what Dean's message is, they wouldn't get it right, and YES, I fault them for that. I fault anyone who falls for the media's tricks and the tricks of his opponents instead of actually bothering themselves to think clearly about it. Why shouldn't I?

My favorite philosopher has a wonderful quote about this, and I think it applies directly:

"Many people would sooner die than think; In fact, they do so."

Amen.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

38. You said: " It's a black mark on those who voted. "

I say democracy has worked.

[Hep]

41. Democracy of the complacent

And your guy is their king! But it's OK. I shouldn't be surprised that they flock to one of the many running who don't get it and don't care.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

45. I guess only those who support Dean should be allowed to vote.

All others can be dismissed as complacent, stupid sheep.

[Name removed]

49. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Zomby Woof]

12. um

None of the non-Dean people on DU lets the media frame our language. We all decided Dean was a loser on our own. :-)

[sangh0]

17. The media's not alone in disliking Dean

Dean has the highest unfavorable rating amongst Dem voters compared to the other Dem candidates.

[Hep]

20. You might think so

But the non Dean people here have relied HEAVILY on the media producing their arguments for them.

[jenk]

14. not the media again...

dean did it to himself

[Hep]

22. Yes the media again

Third straight national election cycle. And apparently some Dems are still wondering what role the media plays. Go figure.

[stickdog]

4. OK, Stu. So what's Dean's winning strategy?

Why not just admit that this carny media game is rigged?

[Feanorcurufinwe]

10. Dean doesn't have a winning strategy, just a way to spend kids' money.

[Raya]

13. Disgracefull that Dean new CEO is "Spinning" the poor donors just to

clean up the mess.

He should go to Terry Mac and ask them to do a fundraiser -- get the money from the big-wigs, not the poor kids that worked so hard.

[GR]

15. Don't Tell Dean To Quit...The Other Candidates Should Quit...

They've appropriated his message for speechifying purposes, but when the chips were down and the fat was in the fire, they voted to support Bush...That's going to end if Howard's elected...I'm not sure it will if Kerry or Edwards is elected. I'm sure it won't if Lieberman were elected.

[bobbyboucher]

25. I gotta get in this one.

Who has won any primary/caucus besides John Kerry? No one has. Should everyone drop out? Edwards hasn't won shit. Should he quit? Hell no. Neither has Clark, should he quit? Fuck no. So this lame-ass attempt to paint one candidate, Dean, who happens to have more delegates and happens to have placed third and second, as some kind of loser is fucking stupid.

But that never stopped some of you before, so I expect to keep reading your mind-numbingly short-sighted assertions. Man, DU has really become either a bastion for political suicide or a completely divide and conquer covert operation. Which is it? I cannot tell you, but it doesn't matter, because they read the same.

Nice job to the usual suspects.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

33. Let's see.

John Kerry has won. Everyone else has lost. That certainly makes John Kerry a winner. What does it say about everyone else?


But of course, the article isn't about name-calling, it's about strategy. And Dean's strategy is lose now, and hopefully use that momentum to win later.


Does someone here want to argue the case of how that is a winning strategy?

[bobbyboucher]

42. Keep up the good work!

You are a credit to your party and to the nation as a whole.

Like every post here is sooooo mature and analytical. It remains to be seen how the strategy will play out. If you've got a crystal ball, bust it out and tell us how it will end.

Thanks, from the progressive community for doing all you have done to fix this mess America is in. Thank you, thank you, thank you. How can I thank you more? Is there anything more I can do to thank you for your thoughful and positive contibution to the liberal/progressive cause? That "everyone's a loser but Kerry" thingy, I could not have thought of a better way to bring about party unity than that one.

Maybe we can get some more posters to give credit where it is due, to all of you who know for absolute certain that John Kerry is the second coming and the rest of the candidates are losers. Thank you! Thank You! Thank You! For all you have done. I cannot say it enough. Come on, I said it, quit campaigning for your candidate and give in to the enevitable landslide from John Kerry and thank all his "respectful" supporters for setting us straight. Thank you. You know who you are and I thank you.

Thank you! You'vbe got it right. Set 'em straight for the good of the party. There isn't any way they stay home.

[Justitia]

37. I agree, no one should be dropping out....

....except maybe Lieberman :evilgrin:

I think all the other candidates have valuable things to offer the race, and they all have their supporters who want their positions reflected.

Besides, I really do believe that it makes the Repubs have to work that much harder and makes them run against all of their positions.

Good Lord, the GE is still 9 mos off, and America is not paying attention yet.

[Name removed]

43. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Justitia]

51. thanks! Sometimes it's hard, 'tho

I've lurked for a long time and finally took the plunge.

Where I live (Repub Headquarters), the Dems really ARE underground.

I see it gets pretty rough in here, but being a Dem in Texas, I'm used to the fight (although every Dem in here is waaaayyyyy smarter than then RWers that live around me).

[LuminousX]

39. What I don't understand

why comment on a candidate's strategy at all? It is interesting from a polisci point of view but has little to do with the actual election. If a strategy is a losing strategy, then the candidate will lose. But you can't be sure until the actual loss has taken place.

I've seen many chess games where one side dominates the other all the way to the end and the end game sees the tide turn dramatically.

Wait until the end game. Strategy discussions are interesting but meaningless - just like polisci.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

46. Why comment on strategy?

I didn't see a bunch of posts on DU back in the summer complaining that 'we shouldn't talk about strategy'.


When Dean was riding high in the polls, the folks who are now dissing them couldn't get enough of them.

We were told Kerry was a loser, and we answered "It's months before a vote will be cast"


and now, votes have been cast, and Dean's big mouth, as it turns out, was not big enough to fit both of his feet.

[bobbyboucher]

50. Nice job!

Doing your party proud again. Thank you very mcuh for all you've done.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

53. We will beat Bush!

I can't to kick that smirking chimp out of the White House!

[LuminousX]

58. I think you missed my point

For Dean supporters, Dean's strategy is infinitely fascinating. If it is a losing one, we chew on our fingernails trying to figure out how to fix it. If it is a winning one, we run around like little children on Christmas.

To a non-Dean supporter, pointing out Dean's strategy is possibly a losing one is sort of like playing chess and asking your opponent if they really want to make that move. Why give hints and pointers to the opposition when the stakes are this high? So, the only real reason to discuss this without evidence of the losing or winning aspect of the strategy is to demoralize.

That is an admirable enough goal. That is part of the campaigning, make the opposition feel like their guy is a loser.

Just as long as we all realize we don't care if the strategy in and of itself wins or loses, we only care about the effect of the discussion on the supporters. When Dean was winning the whole point of talking strategy was to make the opposition feel like Dean was inevitable, that his offense could not be beat. Now, talking about Dean's strategy, which has not been proven to be a loser yet, is an attempt to 'get back at' the Dean supporters. Again, I support that goal in a general sense, because that is part of politics.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

63. No, I think your point is irrelevant to this discussion.

"Just as long as we all realize we don't care if the strategy in and of itself wins or loses "

Totally, 100% wrong.

we do care if the strategy in and of itself wins or loses. We are trying to find the best candidate to beat Bush. And we better pick one who knows how to choose a winning strategy.

[THUNDER HANDS]

52. I don't understand this strategy for two reasons...

1. It implies that Dean can suddenly "create" his own momentum after effectively sitting out seven or nine primaries.

2. It implies that Dean is once again proving himself to be a risk-taker. Shouldn't Dean instead by trying to instill confidence in voters, instead of taking them on a wild campaign ride filled with uncertainty?

I though he was supposed to be running a national campaign, not a campaign of who can get the most delegates in only large states.

[bhunt70]

68. this is exactly how I see it also.

[blm]

62. Worse, it's a SORE loser strategy.

.

[candy331]

65. Don't you find it Ironic that since Dean's candidacy is

said to be over he is still capturing all the news. I expected to see few threads on Dean here but lo and behold the Dean goes on. Why is that I wonder? Are you inwardly afraid that your hailed in candidate Kerry may not be the winner you are being led to believe? Don't be sheeple like you claim the other side is, if you were Kerry before then fine, but if you're switching now ask yourself if it is because you want to or because you are being led to. Dean still for me.

[DemBones DemBones]

66. And not surprisingly so, since he

was neither a gracious "winner" (in the months when he was leading in the polls) nor gracious in defeat (after the losses in Iowa and NH.)

When he was considered the front runner, he complained a lot about having to pick buckshot from his rear; after losing Iowa and NH, he warned John Kerry that "they" would be after him now and he shouldn't complain about it. The latter was especially amusing as Dean was the one who demanded that Terry McAuliffe should tell the other Dems to quit picking on him.

[progressivebydesign]

69. I should care what Rothenburg thinks.. why?

Opinions are like... well.. you know how the saying goes. Thanks for sharing Stu. Now go away.