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Zogby Dem poll touted on Drudge Front Page w/ pic. Leads hardball tonight.

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John_H Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-18-03 12:27 PM
Original message
Zogby Dem poll touted on Drudge Front Page w/ pic. Leads hardball tonight.
Edited on Thu Dec-18-03 12:28 PM by John_H
"Dean running away w/ Dem nomination" scroll on FOX.

They love Dean more than anyone. Why, I wonder....

But, uh....what will happen to holy joe's votes when he leaves? How about Gephardts? Enjoy now, Dean folks but please, please, please don't start believing your guy can't be beat.
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DarkPhenyx Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-18-03 12:30 PM
Response to Original message
1. I'm just thrilled that everyone else seems afraid of Dean.
Amuses the hell out of me actually.
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John_H Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-18-03 12:51 PM
Response to Reply #1
12. I'm scared totally shitless of Dean, unlike Tweety, Lunz, Rove, etc.
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LuminousX Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-18-03 12:35 PM
Response to Original message
2. Only a handful of Dean voters state he has the nomination sewn up
The rest of us take this as a sign to work doubly hard to reach the undecideds.
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helleborient Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-18-03 12:37 PM
Response to Reply #2
3. Hence the letter writing today - Victory in Iowa Day...
And the workers heading to Iowa and New Hampshire.

Taking nothing for granted!!
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Melinda Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-18-03 12:42 PM
Response to Reply #2
7. DUer's for Dean?
Can you tell me more, please? :hi:
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Phelan Donating Member (188 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-18-03 12:39 PM
Response to Original message
4. Zogby isn't worth the paper it is written on
I don't have the link right now but there is a study done on the accuracy of polling agencies during the 00 election and Zogby scored a whooping 2! 2 out of 10 that is.
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HFishbine Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-18-03 12:44 PM
Response to Reply #4
9. Maybe
CBS/NY Times is more to your liking (Dean 23%), or perhaps NBC News/Wall Street Journal (Dean 25%); maybe Gallup (Dean 31%)?

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04dem.htm
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flpoljunkie Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-18-03 12:57 PM
Response to Reply #9
14. CBS poll indicates 28% remain undecided, 50% have no opinion of Dean...
The polls remain fluid, according to the Pew Research Center.
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FrenchieCat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-18-03 02:15 PM
Response to Reply #4
18. Zogby does not impress me....
This is what I found out about Zogby the last time he came out with his poll:

I have been observing the coverage of the Democratic presidential primary coverage on television and in the mainstream press. What I am finding is rather shocking. I find that there is a media bias throughout most of the political programs that is forcing the meme that Howard Dean is the front runner. I have also noticed that General Wesley Clark candidacy as well as other candidates are being minimized by the same organizations that are maximizing media exposure for Howard Dean. What I find most surprising is that the Zogby polls are being used by these media sources to create this front runner status. The Zogby poll will be reported from an Associated Press writer, and then splash out all over the news media. I find this disturbing, as other polls don't get the same type of exposures Many of the other pollsters are more accurate with a higher accuracy rating and their numbers don't add up to the Zogby polls, e.g., American Research Group.
http://www.ourcampaigns.com/cgi-bin/r.cgi/PollingFirmList.html

The Zogby polls are "push polls" meaning the questions asked lead to desired answers. I am requesting assistance with this issue as I am becoming very frustrated that the corporate media has decided to select the Democratic candidate for us. As Hillary Clinton said, pundits don't pick Presidents, people do. I just don't see how we will get that chance. It all feels like a big set up. I am including an analysis of the Zogby polling method and the media propaganda that is going on in these United States. I conclude that Zogby polls are inaccurate and biased. Please see the case that I am making below:

http://www.cesame-nm.org/Standards/Zogby.pdf Please read for comments on Zogby's methodology and his reputation. Please note this passage from the 8 page report from Chris Mooney, the American Prospect, January 13, 2003. "Zogby is unusual in the extent to which he has blended partisan and interest groups polling with credibility-enhancing contracts for media outlets such as Reuters, NBC News, MSNBC, and numerous newspapers and television stations. As Zogby himself acknowledges, the repute he derives from media polling helps him sell his services to more self interested clients. The lucky group end up with the Zogby brand name attached to findings that advance their agendas. "Media organizations should have people who absolutely aren't polling for interest groups", observed Robert Blendon, who directs Harvard University's Program of Public Opinion and Health and Social Policy. Blendon notes that most major polling conglomerates, such as ABC News/Washington Post poll, maintain firewalls between their work and outside interests." But there is more. Read at your leisure.

Also please see the wording of the poll (sample here is New Hampshire), but my understanding is that's how it's being done all over.http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=750 Please note that questions 2, 5 & 6 are Push Poll questions. Those questions asked will later elicit a desired answer when asking which of the candidates to you favor. Question 2 is biased against General Wes Clark. Questions 5 & 6 are biased pro Howard Dean, and biased against most of the other candidates
--------------------
Zogby New Hampshire Poll

Regardless of how you intend to vote, in your view, how likely is it that George W. Bush will be re-elected?

Should the Democratic party nominate someone who is a lifelong Democrat, or would Democrats be wise to select someone who is a recent convert to their way of thinking?

Overall, how would you rate the job performance of George W. Bush as President?

Regardless of how you may vote in next year's presidential election, would you say you like or dislike George W. Bush as a person?

Thinking about the upcoming election in November 2004, do you think it is important that the Democratic Party nominate a presidential candidate who opposed the war with Iraq on principle, or should the party select someone who voted to...

In a race for president, would you be more likely to support a Democratic candidate who supported the war in Iraq, or would you be more likely to support George W. Bush?

---------------------------
Furthermore, I have 3 samples of newspaper stories, over a given period of time, which basically say the same thing. That one particular candidate is not going to make it...he has faded, or fizzled......the same person that says the same thing is John Zogby. Now that should be a story!


http://www.nypost.com/news/nationalnews/41887.htm Here's an article talking about Clark's slowing momentum, titled
DEM DEAN'S ROCK SOLID IN GRANITE STATE Dated October 25, 2003....using Zogby poll as reference.]

Democratic front-runner Howard Dean has zoomed into a "juggernaut" lead in the key presidential primary state of New Hampshire while retired Gen. Wesley Clark's support has sagged into single digits, a new poll shows.
Dean is at 40 percent - more than double Sen. John Kerry (Mass.) who is second at 17, followed by Clark and Sen. John Edwards (D-N.C.) tied for third at 6 percent each in the Zogby International poll.

Several prior polls put Clark at 10 or 11 percent and clearly in third in New Hampshire, but this survey suggests "The General" has fizzled in the wake of Iraq flip-flops and the revelation that he praised President Bush and voted for Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan.

"Clark's fizzle is the key to these numbers. Clark was hurting Dean. Now Clark has just collapsed and the direct beneficiary is Dean," said pollster John Zogby.


http://observer.guardian.co.uk/international/story/0,6903,1091321,00.html Here's another attempt....1 month later! Smear piece Titled "Democrats' general on the retreat" - In another valiant attempt to squelch Clark's momentum - Dated November 23, 2003 - Story uses Zogby quotes on what's wrong with the Clark Campaign.
As President George W. Bush arrives home from his state visit to Britain, he will have the satisfaction of seeing Clark's campaign in crisis. It is low on funds, has lost key staff and is fizzling out in key battleground states.
Meanwhile, the campaign of Vermont governor Howard Dean has captured the public imagination, securing his place as the frontrunner in the still crowded field of nine Democrat candidates.

'There was tremendous potential in Clark as a candidate, but there have been major problems in the execution,' said John Zogby, head of polling organization Zogby International which conducted research for Clark supporters before the general's announcement that he was joining the race.

That caused dismay among many supporters. 'People know that if Clark wins the Democrat nomination, those quotes are just a Republican attack ad waiting to happen,' Zogby said.


Now, here's a quote from the MSNBC story just out today. Here's a quote , notice who's doing the talking. http://www.msnbc.com/news/1001091.asp?0cv=CB20," Pollster John Zogby said Dean is strong in all regions and among all voter groups. The poll of 503 Democratic and independent voters was taken Dec. 1-3 and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points."

this is IMO is the American Travesty - Called circular reporting based on biased push polls......a la Arnold!
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dave29 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-18-03 12:40 PM
Response to Original message
5. Nothing is ever taken for granted
all of the candidates should take that to heart.

Our job is to beat George W. Bush - and we have to work harder than ever to make it happen.
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TexasPatriot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-18-03 12:40 PM
Response to Original message
6. here's the Gallup analysis link
http://www.gallup.com/poll/releases/pr031218.asp

i really dont understand how 2 polls done at the same time can come up with such wildly different numbers and still claim +/-5 MOE






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Phelan Donating Member (188 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-18-03 01:20 PM
Response to Reply #6
16. How is lieberman in there?
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ClintonTyree Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-18-03 12:44 PM
Response to Original message
8. Don't call yourself a Democrat.................
if you're not willing to set differences aside and work like hell to get WHATEVER NOMINEE elected next fall. If it's Dean, fine. If it's Kerry, fine. Even stinking Lieberman!
I'm sick and tired of Democrats doing the GOP's work for them. If we don't form some sort of cohesive strategy, and damned soon, we're just enabling Bush for another 4 years.
I'm seriously thinking about giving DU a rest until after the nomination is over. It's become a chatboard for teenagers, or at least those that ACT like teenagers. It's a big pissing contest to see who can harm the other's choice of candidate the most.
I'm sick of it. This is why Democrats don't win. They're all pulling in 100 different directions. I hate the damn GOP, but they have ONE thing in their favor. They STICK TOGETHER!
Flame away, I really don't give a shit anymore.
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John_H Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-18-03 12:49 PM
Response to Reply #8
11. I think dean can't win. But I'll work 24/7 to prove myself wrong....
Edited on Thu Dec-18-03 12:51 PM by John_H
You folks have to get used to the fact that lots of smart people think the whole ball of wax is being decided in the dem primary.

Nobody's helping the GOP. They don't need help. They've got FOX, Tweety, Lunz, Crowley, CiCi, Paula, Wolf, Tim et al. and they're all spinning for dean.

Wake up.
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Upfront Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-18-03 12:53 PM
Response to Reply #8
13. No Flame Needed
You speak the truth. We are killing our candidates. Stupid!
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dfong63 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-18-03 12:48 PM
Response to Original message
10. why do you believe what they say?
They love Dean more than anyone. Why, I wonder....

you don't believe what they say about other issues, do you? so why do you believe their supposed "love" or "glee" re Dean?
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blm Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-18-03 01:03 PM
Response to Reply #10
15. We don't believe their fawning promotion of Dean. That's the whole point.
He's the one the corporate media gave a press plane last June. He's the one that Frank Luntz has said has won every debate.

You believe what you want. I will NOT believe the corporate media has good intentions towards the Democratic party while they are controlling the public's perceptions of our Democratic primary.
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LittleDannySlowhorse Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-18-03 02:12 PM
Response to Original message
17. None of us believe he can't be beat
Thank you and have a good day.
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Sean Reynolds Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-18-03 02:42 PM
Response to Original message
19. What do you MEAN FOX loves him?
A few nights ago I was watching some show and they were doing a total HATCHET job on Dean. It went something like this:

HOST: Dean told a crowd of supporters in LA that the capture of Saddam doesn't change his mind one bit, nor does it make America safer. What do you think of that HOST #2?

HOST #2: Well I think Dean is WRONG in thinking that. No doubt America is safer without Saddam. Dean really needs to get a better grasp of what he's saying.

HOST: Can Dean beat Bush?

HOST #2: Can pigs fly?

OK, it wasn't exactly like that, but it was damn close. They were thrashing him.
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