WP political blog, Chris Cillizza: Your Guide to Key Races in 8 States

[DeepModem Mom]

WP political blog, "The Fix," by Chris Cillizza
Posted at 07:45 AM ET, 06/ 6/2006
Primary Day Primer: Your Guide to Key Races in 8 States

GOVERNORS

....California: State Controller Steve Westly and state Treasurer Phil Angelides are in a dead heat for the Democratic nomination. A Field Poll released last week showed Westly with a 35 percent to 34 percent edge over Angelides, down from the 37 percent to 26 percent margin Westly enjoyed in April. But we've heard (and the poll shows) that Westly has bounced back and most strategists inside and outside the state see the race as a jump ball. If turnout (as expected) is low, Angelides's support from the Democratic party establishment and organized labor could put him over the top. Republicans make little secret that Angelides is their preferred opponent against Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger in the fall as he can be more easily cast as a traditional liberal Democrat....

SENATE

Montana: State Auditor John Morrison has gone from shoo-in to heel in his Democratic primary race against state Sen. John Tester. Morrison was riding high until a story hit the papers regarding an extramarital affair he had and an investigation his office had conducted into a company with ties to his one-time paramour. Morrison's momentum seemed to slip away in the weeks following as concerns were raised that Democrats needed a ethically pristine candidate to take on embattled Sen. Conrad Burns, who faces a semi-serious primary of his own today against state Sen. Bob Keenan. Enter Tester, who, although being outspent, has pulled into a statistical dead heat with Morrison, according to a Mason-Dixon poll conducted late last month. Roughly one-in-three primary voters said the revelations about Morrison made them less likely to support him, while the rest said it was not an issue for them. The identity of the Democratic nominee may not matter much as the Mason-Dixon poll showed both men ahead of Burns.

HOUSE

California's 11th District: National Democrats have touted their chances of ousting Rep. Richard Pombo (R) since the start of the 2006 cycle. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has endorsed Steve Filson, a United Airlines pilot, although 2004 Democratic nominee Jerry McNerney, who was endorsed by the California Democratic Party, could well win the primary. Pombo is being challenged by former Rep. Pete McCloskey (R), who has centered his somewhat quixotic campaign on allegations of ethics improprieties that continue to shadow Pombo.

California's 50th District: No race has drawn as much national attention as the special election to replace imprisoned ex-Rep. Duke Cunningham (R). Democrat Francine Busby has taken advantage of a favorable national environment and the fact that her opponent -- Brian Bilbray (R) -- is a former member of Congress and a lobbyist, keeping this race much closer than the district's registration numbers suggest it should be. Bilbray has raised little money but has been bailed out by the massive spending of the National Republican Congressional Committee (estimated at $4.5 million). The independent candidacy of William Griffith, who has been endorsed by the San Diego Minutemen, further complicates Bilbray's winning equation. Even so, Republicans are cautiously optimistic about their chances here....

http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/