FL Poll: Crist (R) 41% Davis (D) 39%, no bounce for Bush

[skipos]

"June 29, 2006 - Crist Edges Up In Florida Governor's Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; President Gets No Bounce In Approval Ratings"

"Florida Attorney General Charlie Crist has opened a 49 - 21 percent lead among Republican voters over State Chief Financial Officer Tom Gallagher, his opponent for the Republican gubernatorial nomination, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Another 28 percent of Republicans are undecided. This compares to a 43 - 26 percent lead among Republicans May 24."

"Crist also has inched ahead of U.S. Rep. Jim Davis, the leading Democrat in the governor's race, 41 - 39 percent. This compares to a 40 - 37 percent Davis lead in a May 24 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University."

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x12941.xml

[LA lady]

1. whew!!

Glad to see this. I just saw the Rasmussen Florida gov's poll and nearly fainted.

[DavidDvorkin]

2. What's good about it?

The Democrat was ahead, but now the Republican is. This is depressing.

[LA lady]

3. Compare

well, Rasmussen had Christ ahead 49 to 35. At least this is doable!

[skipos]

4. I wouldn't say it is "good" but it is still within reach.

I followed the Kaine (D) Kilgore (R) race in VA pretty closely. Kaine was behind in the polls until the last week or two, where he was barely inched ahead. He ended up winning by 6%, on plenty of Diebold machines nonetheless.

These close races are going to be heavily effected by turnout.

[Awsi Dooger]

7. Definitely within reach

Crist is slightly more than a 1/2 betting favorite right now. So that's not much, basically the equivalent of a 4.5 point favorite in a football game. As you indicate, Kilgore led Kaine by roughly 8-10 points last summer and was also a slight betting favorite.

Here's the nationwide 2006 gov betting odds chart from TradeSports.com, if anyone is interested. Tough to decipher if you're not a gambler but basically look at the numbers under "Bid", "Offer" and "Last" as a percentage of theoretical win likelihood. For example, Arnold in CA is 60 and Angelides is 37. It's listed by state and party, not candidate name. You can also click at left for the other political odds including all the senate races:

http://tradesports.com/aav2/trading/tradingHTML.jsp?eventSelect=coupon_33&updateList=true&showExpired=false

[skipos]

8. That betting info is interesting

It sure is a lot more flattering to the MI Dem incumbent than many polls are. Do you know what the odds were on Kerry/Bush or any other big election races?

[Awsi Dooger]

9. Bush was favored all year in '04

It ranged from 5/7 or -140 most of the year to a high of just less than 1/3 after the GOP convention. That translates to bet 3 to win 1. The -140 is bet 14 to win 10. The odds went way down after the first debate when Kerry sliced into Bush's poll lead. On election eve I think Bush was 5/9 which translates to -180 or bet 18 to win 10.

After the early exit polls came out, that number on TradeSports avalanched toward Kerry. I was part of it. My friend and I made a big bet on Kerry when he was the -140 favorite. I was doing GOTV and snuck a quick look at DU during a break at midday. Unfortunately, I didn't see the nutty poll specifics like +17 in New Hampshire or I might have realized something didn't sound right. Kerry eventually became a 1/2 favorite on TradeSports, then it went dramatically the other way as the results didn't match the poll numbers. TradeSports is man-to-man so they stay open after the event has started, unlike sportsbooks or offshore betting outfits.

In 2000, Bush was also a 5/9 favorite on election eve. So that's -180 or 18 to win 10. Bush was favored all year other than a few weeks in September when it was basically pick'em after Gore took the poll lead.

In '96 Clinton was a huge favorite. I think I gave -600 which was stealing at 6 to win 1. The number went higher than that but it still wasn't as much of an out price as it should have been. In '92 Clinton was 2/5 when I bet. That was a 25 to win 10 ratio. It went higher than that, something like -350 or 35 to win 10.

[Awsi Dooger]

13. I forgot to mention about Granholm

Incumbents are always given a huge benefit of a doubt in the betting lines. The polls don't mean nearly as much when an incumbent is trailing. Especially if the state is favorable to the partisanship of the incumbent. There's is no way the offshore betting outfits or the bettors at TradeSports, for example, are going to overreact to a 5 or 6 point poll deficit for a DeWine or Talent, for example.

It takes a very special case like Casey/Santorum for an incumbent to be a huge underdog. And that race is only 80/20. It's not like a 1 in 50 shot like many seem to think.

I frequently suppress a private chuckle around here when posters claim we have a big poll lead and only Diebold can steal it. Many, many times the race they are talking about the other side has been favored all year and it remains that way despite the poll numbers. In fact, wise guy gamblers will often chose that specific time to lock in a wager at a favorable number, right after a favorable poll comes out in favor of the other side. They don't believe it, based on historical analysis, and think the number will soar the other way once it gets closer to election time.

[TheVirginian]

12. Kaine had a lot of advantages that Davis doesn't, though.

Kaine was following an immensely popular governor of the same party, and Crist seems to be a pretty competent candidate, where as many conservatives I talked to loathed Kilgore as a candidate.

[rzemanfl]

5. I keep hearing that Crist is out all the time hitting on women in the

clubs. Hope some of these ladies come forward at the proper time.

[Orangepeel]

10. uh... women?

If Crist is out hitting on women it's a cover.

[rzemanfl]

14. Now that's interesting. So you're saying he's not trying to get

laid, just trying to get noticed?

[Orangepeel]

15. I'm saying that, until very recently,

none of the rumors about Crist's sex life involved women. It's long been an open secret in Tallahassee that Crist is gay. I guess now that he is positioning himself as the true conservative candidate, he's cultivating the image of anything but.

[saltpoint]

6. My objection to Charlie Crist is that he's a puke. I realize he will

be the GOP nominee but I hope Jim or Rod can overtake him somehow.

If Katherine Harris is the GOP Senate candidate, it might depress the Republican turn-out just enough for the Dems to grab this one.

I hope so anyway.

[Orangepeel]

11. Crist has had a heavy ad push all month.

one ad about throwing price gougers in jail and another about how he stands side by side with Governor Bush and is Florida's only truly conservative candidate.