do you remember this?On Friday, the CBS News/New York Times poll showed Bush leading Kerry by nine points. It followed a Gallup poll that found Bush fourteen points ahead. These strongly pro-Bush polls are the result of a simple fact: the sample groups include a disproportionate number of Republicans. Had the polling samples been adjusted to reflect the party identification of the likely November electorate, Bush would only be ahead by a single point. Polling by the Pew Research Center has the race tied.
that said, here's some current info on polls... (September 25) The "Macaca" incident has in hindsight completely changed the dynamic of this race in a way we didn't anticipate at the time. Some of this is the fault of the Allen campaign and how they managed the damage control, but much of it is a function that "Macaca" acquired the legs it had because of the fodder in George Allen's background on race. As much as we were right in identifying James Webb as a potential problem for Allen back in February, we were flat out wrong as to the effect of "Macaca" this August.
Bottom line, George Allen is in trouble. And if these next round of polls show this contest tied or Webb ahead, Allen will be in big, big trouble. This is not to say that this race should be chalked up to the Democrats, only that there is a serious, potential upset brewing in Virginia.
However, before one gets too caught up in the anti-George Allen fever of the day, Senator Allen has some powerful factors working in his favor. He has a lot of money, he is running in a red state, and Allen is a very attractive and likable candidate......usually. He won his Senate seat in 2000, 52% - 48% over a tough conservative Democrat in Chuck Robb, when most other close 2000 Senate races were going to the Democrats. But the biggest ally George Allen has, is he still has six weeks to get back on track. The Allen campaign would be smart to start unloading on Jim Webb today, because the longer this race stays tied or very close, the higher the odds climb that Webb pulls off the big upset.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2006/senate/va/virginia_senate_race-14.html Let's not count on polls or "count our chickens before they hatch." The best way to defeat ALLEN is to donate to WEBB! James Webb in Vietnam
First in his class of 243 at the Marine Corps Officer's Basic School in Quantico, Virginia, Jim served with the Fifth Marine Regiment in Vietnam, where as a rifle platoon and company commander in the infamous An Hoa Basin west of Danang he was awarded the Navy Cross, the Silver Star Medal, two Bronze Star Medals, and two Purple Hearts. He later served as a platoon commander and as an instructor in tactics and weapons at Marine Corps Officer Candidates School, and then as a member of the Secretary of the Navy's immediate staff, before leaving the Marine Corps in 1972.
Jim spent the "Watergate years" as a student at the Georgetown University Law Center, arriving just after the Watergate break-in in 1972, and receiving his J.D. just after the fall of South Vietnam in l975. While at Georgetown he began a six-year pro bono representation of a Marine who had been convicted of war crimes in Vietnam (finally clearing the man's name in 1978, three years after his suicide), won the Horan award for excellence in legal writing, and authored his first book; Micronesia and U.S. Pacific Strategy. He also worked in Asia as a consultant to the Governor of Guam, conducting a study of U.S. military land needs in Asia, and their impact on Guam's political future.
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