BBC: NJ's Menendez Jumps Ahead of Kean in Latest Poll

[NJCher]

I just heard this on the BBC. I went to the Public Mind's Web site at NJ's Fairleigh Dickinson University (polling organization) but they have not yet put up the data.

Consequently, I called the University and spoke with the executive director, who said they were currently haranguing the webmaster to get the poll results up. I asked for him to run the data past me as the BBC reported it so quickly that I didn't catch it all. Here is what he said:

Menendez is ahead five points without leaners.

With leaners, he is ahead seven points.

Consequently, if you have been reading FogerRox's points on this issue, you will see he has surmised correctly. You can read his posts in the NJ forum.

FYI, "leaners" are people who, when questioned the first time, said "I don't know" or some other comparable response. Then they are asked a second time and they provide a more definitive answer. In this case, Menendez picked up two points with the leaners.

Here is the Public Mind link. I expect the data will be up soon:

http://publicmind.fdu.edu/




Cher

[LynneSin]

1. I saw a great Menendez ad on TV last night

He linked Kean Jr & Bush hand in hand. And several times blasted Bush's Iraq policy and stated point blank that he wants our troops out of that country.

He's a good man, I think we'll hear more as to what happened with the Torture Bill but I think it's more than what we see on the surface - waiting to see this thing get in the courts!

[bunny planet]

2. In NJ, we don't take kindly to finding out Condi lied about a July 10th

warning about 9/11, and Kean's fathers involvement with the crockumentary 'Path to 9/11' doesn't sit well with us either. I'm not happy Menendez said yea to the torture bill but I feel certain he wouldn't have if Congress had been 'exfoliated' only a couple of days sooner.

[LynneSin]

4. I really think the dems didn't want Kean using that bill against Menendez

Hell even Lautenberg 'supported' it and he's one of the most liberal guys in DC.

It's such a gamble, but I'm thinking that the democrats realized that they had a better chance of stopping the torture if we got the courts involved. Because let's face it, regardless of what happened with that bill, this government would have continued on with it's practice of using torture. That bill was nothing more than a ploy to siphon off democratic voters

[FogerRox]

12. Come DU, vote this to the greatest page.

[mom cat]

18. BIG WOOT!

[wiley]

27. Agreed, but I'm pretty sure he would torture Castro, if necessary and all

else failed, to liberate the people of Cuba. But I can only speak for myself, but I think Menendez is good for Jersey. You're right. We really do not take kindly to those who would mock or disdain our concerns about 9/11, especially someone named Kean. He lied, He profited off lying, he disgraced and defiled the truth of our lives and his associates are real trash! May all the Keans suffer in silence until they beg for forgiveness once we have assured the security and prosperity of New Jersey.


Oh, and vote for Tom Wyka in Jersey!



I want a purple Smorkin Labbit avatar from KidRobot. Anyone got any ideas?

[Tarheel_Dem]

3. This is good news.....

this has been a real nail-biter. i hope he has pulled away, and keeps going in that direction. new jersey:
:yourock:

[RDANGELO]

5. New Jersey has a history of swinging to the Democrat at the last minute.

This would be in line with that. If Menendez holds on, I think the Dems will take the senate.

[bunny planet]

6. Most definitely, but I've been worried for awhile that NJ would be the

state these Republicans try to steal in the next election, they always put it out there that NJ is in play. They want to win in one of the states directly affected by 9/11 so they can crow about the people believing them to be the national security party (:puke: ) and we will be voting on the shiny new vapor not paper machines throughout the state in November. I'm hoping the polls by that time don't even show it close at all, more difficult to steal.

[rocktivity]

23. New Jersey is the unpretension capitol of the world.

Regardless of party affiliation, it just isn't in a New Jerseyite's nature to buy into bullshit. That's why though we may turn purple, we will never turn red.

:headbang:
rocknation

[kwolf68]

7. Good news

Anyone worried about Maryland? I get the commercials and haven't seen anything by Cardin, but have seen numerous Steele commercials, slickly done. Is this seat vulnerable?

[Tarheel_Dem]

8. i think cardin's in pretty good shape there, but try these.....

http://electionprojection.com /
http://electionprediction.us /
http://electoral-vote.com/

[kwolf68]

9. Not bad....

I like Cardin and Steele is a threat, but he is a horrible. I like the fact Cardin is tracking outside of the MOE, which makes me breath easier. I have relatives in Maryland (Republican) and they are totally not engaged to vote either way. The Dems I know are ready to go vote. I don't want to lose the MD seat and it looks like Cardin is doing well. I hope he blitzes the TV in the final few weeks just to make sure (btw-I did see his Steele likes puppies commercial).

[NJCher]

10. Kick

'Cuz this is good news!




Cher

[FogerRox]

11. Very cool, thanks Cher. Heres the link to my post from about 2 weeks

ago....

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x2843071

Come on DUers vote this up, this belongs on the greatest page.

[FogerRox]

13. BREAKING NEWS REUTERS/ZOGBY: Menendez up by 11 pts

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2006/senate/nj/new_jersey_senate_race-10.html

[FogerRox]

14. Vote this up DU, Good news from NJ, WOOT WOOT WOOT.

[NJCher]

15. wow, 11 points!!

Yee haw!!

Hey, I hope to canvas with you for Wyka before the election. I'm trying to get a friend to come, too.




Cher

[Ignacio Upton]

16. Zogby is not a credible polling company

Sadly to say. But Menendez is definately recovering, as the FDU poll indicates.

[On the Road]

17. Zogby is Not Credible?

[rocktivity]

24. What about this investigation he's under?

How much trouble is he in with that?

:shrug:
rocknation

[FogerRox]

26. what investigation?

[rocktivity]

29. I saw commercial for Kean saying Menendez is under investigation

which in itself was enough to raise my suspicions. But Post #20 explains it all for me.

:headbang:
rocknation

[ProgressiveEconomist]

19. k&r

[wiley]

20. Tom Kean Jr. : "advocates adults and children have orgasms as a means..."

As I have stated several times, Jersey will not elect Tom Kean Jr.

Senator Menendez has a great record, and lots of support. Do people not get the point here? The Republicans can spend millions on ads in Jersey saying whatever they want. If what they say are pathetic lies, people laugh or just ignore it. They'll vote for Menendez.

Although this post is highly chopped up, I left in a riotous response by the chief attack dog for the Republican Party. Also,the bit about Kean's guy creating the "advocates adults and children have orgasms as a means to reaching inner peace" is just too disgusting to ignore at this time. This guy likes to lurk around Republicans who truly believe they can get elected on their looks alone (that's what their families tell them at least) and come up with really sordid sexual crap. It's all so Republican.

http://tinyurl.com/epcft
"A Behind-the-Scenes Player Draws Notice in New Jersey
By LAURA MANSNERUS and MIKE McINTIRE
Published: October 5, 2006

Chris Lyon is a freelancer in political campaigns, a man so far behind the scenes, a former colleague says, that he often mails in his work and tells his client, “I sent you a gift.” He is sought-after, reviled and, according to foes and allies alike, good at what he does. Mr. Lyon’s craft, called opposition research, has become a major element in political campaigns, feeding information to operatives and journalists alike. But while its practitioners usually lie low, Mr. Lyon is a rare example of a researcher who has become part of the story, the target of angry barbs from Democrats who assert that he has relied on smears and distortions.

Indeed, Mr. Lyon’s most recent “gift” — to Thomas H. Kean Jr., the Republican candidate for the United States Senate in New Jersey — has become an issue in the increasingly sharp-edged contest between Mr. Kean and United States Senator Robert Menendez, a Democrat.
In his work for a consultant to the Kean campaign, Mr. Lyon enlisted a former Hudson County executive, now serving time in a federal prison for accepting a bribe, to lead him to some of Mr. Menendez’s political enemies. One of them produced a tape-recorded conversation in which a close ally of Mr. Menendez is heard urging a contractor to hire someone as a favor to Mr. Menendez.

“Op research is certainly legit,” said Matthew Miller, Mr. Menendez’s spokesman. “What’s not legit is the kind of smear-peddling they depend on. It’s hypocritical at best to claim you’re a reformer while taking your cues from a jailed felon who accepted thousands of dollars in bribes.” Democrats say that the Kean campaign, in using Mr. Lyon’s work, have engaged in the very sort of bare-knuckled, machine-style politics that it has accused Mr. Menendez of practicing, indeed thriving on. The Menendez campaign acknowledges having its own opposition researcher. “Sure, of course we do,” Mr. Miller said. “But our op researcher has not been thrown out of previous states for breaking the law,” he added, referring to an incident in New Hampshire six years ago.

Work that Mr. Lyon did there, including producing anonymous mailings that said the opposing candidate’s wife belonged to a cult that “advocates adults and children have orgasms as a means to reaching inner peace” — led to a cease-and-desist order from the state’s attorney general for failing to report his campaign activities.

Kean aides emphasize that Mr. Lyon does not work directly for the campaign. “I think the selective outrage here is a little laughable,” said Jill Hazelbaker, a Kean spokeswoman, who added that Mr. Menendez’s former law partner, who was at his side when he was sworn in as a senator, had been convicted of dealing cocaine.

Mr. Lyon’s role in the Kean campaign has become public in part because he has been the source of controversy before. He worked for Bret D. Schundler’s unsuccessful campaign for New Jersey governor in 2001, but left shortly after his work in New Hampshire, and the penalty that followed, became publicly known. He returned to New Jersey politics when he was retained by Mr. Kean’s consultant, Matt Leonardo.

Mr. Lyon also resurfaced in New Jersey this spring, asking people familiar with Hudson County politics — including a reporter for The New York Times — about Mr. Menendez’s possible involvement in a graft case there 25 years ago. Prosecutors have said that Mr. Menendez had no criminal role in that case. At the time, Mr. Leonardo said the campaign would produce a film, which has not yet appeared, “very similar” in purpose to the Swift Boat commercials used to successfully attack John Kerry in the 2004 presidential race.

[wiley]

21. K and R

[KoKo]

22. Thank God....Given what Kean's father has been up to and

Menendez's great Dem Voting Record ...I've been hoping this race would be more competitive.

Thanks for the good news!

[wiley]

25. Menendez will win.

Watch the polls get better and better. Then add 10 and you'll get the real votes on election day.

[wiley]

28. KIck and R!

OKay?