Polls: Pew vs. Time

[ProSense]

Iraq still issue number one for US voters

by Stephanie Griffith 1 hour, 17 minutes ago

Snip....

The poll found found that 58 percent of the US public believes the US military effort in Iraq is not going well, 47 percent say the war is hurting, not helping, the fight against terrorism.

The survey also found Americans remarkably unaffected by the scandal over the handling of lurid sexual messages sent by former Republican lawmaker Mark Foley to teenage pages in Congress -- at least with respect to next month's legislative and gubernatorial balloting.

The Pew Center found that Democrats had a 51 percent to 38 percent advantage over Republicans before last week's scandal broke, and 50 percent to 37 percent edge after.

Among voters who said national issues were of paramount importance for them, about half -- 51 percent -- cited the deteriorating situation in Iraq as the most important concern. Terrorism came in second place at 37 percent while 35 of respondents cited the economy.

Another important recent development -- the drop in the price of gasoline -- also appeared not to have impacted voter feelings greatly. The survey showed that while most respondents were aware of the recent fall in gas prices, they were also likely to complain about a faltering US economy.

The poll put US President George W. Bush's job approval rating at 37 percent, with 63 percent of respondents saying they are dissatisfied with the way things are going in the country.

As with earlier Pew surveys, an unusually high percentage of voters -- 39 percent -- envision their ballot as a vote "against" Bush rather than for him.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20061005/pl_afp/usvotepolliraq_061005224143

Thursday, Oct. 05, 2006

TIME Poll: The Foley Sex Scandal Has Hurt G.O.P. Election Prospects

Two-thirds of those aware of the scandal believe Republican leaders attempted a cover-up, according to a new survey

By TONY KARON

Two thirds of Americans aware of the congressional-page sex scandal believe Republican leaders tried to cover it up — and one quarter of them say the affair makes them less likely to vote for GOP candidates in their districts come November. Those are among the findings of a new TIME poll conducted this week among 1002 randomly-selected voting-age Americans.

The poll suggests the Foley affair may have dented Republican hopes of retaining control of Congress in November. Among the registered voters who were polled, 54% said they would be more likely to vote for the Democratic candidate for Congress, compared with 39% who favored the Republican — a margin that has jumped by 11 points from a similar poll conducted in June. That increase may be fueled by the rolling scandal over sexually explicit e-mails sent to teenage pages by Republican Representative Mark Foley. Almost 80% of respondents were aware of the scandal, and only 16% approve of the Republicans' handling of it. Those polled were divided, however, on whether House Speaker Dennis Hastert should resign over his handling of the Foley affair, with 39% saying he should resign and 38% saying he should not.

Iraq, meanwhile, is continuing to be a problem for the Republicans. Only 38% of respondents in the TIME poll now support President Bush's decision to invade Iraq, down from 42% three months ago. A similar number believe that the new Iraqi government will succeed in forming a stable democracy, while 59% believe this is unlikely. Almost two-thirds (65%) of respondents disapprove of President Bush's handling of the war, while 54% believe he "deliberately misled" Americans in making his case for war — a figure that has increased by 6 points over the past year. President Bush's overall approval rating, according to TIME's poll, now stands at just 36%, down from 38% in August.

[Awsi Dooger]

1. I'll always put my faith in PEW

They are by far the opinion survey I trust the most. There is no doubt the media and progressive sites are overplaying the Foley scandal in regard to how it will impact the November vote. As a handicapper I started posting that on several sites many days ago. Sure, it's great to have all the GOP implosions and that has sunk Bush's approval rating into the 30s, but I'm convinced the Woodward book is more significant and we would have been better off it it had managed full play without the Foley crap drowning it out.

Notice the PEW survey, as always, is taken over a long period of time, from Sept. 21-Oct. 4. There is almost an identical number of people questioned before the Foley news (777) as afterward (726). And the margin is identical, 51-38 and 50-37.

I want to look at the full PEW pdf. They are always fascinating, particularly since they include numbers in recent months and previous cycles side by side.

I hope we take some of the predictions here by the top cheerleader types for what they are, overly optimistic: "But anti-incumbent feeling seemed less pronounced than in the historic 1994 midterm elections, when voters ousted Democrats from the leadership of the House of Representatives, the Pew researchers noted."

I'm including that paragraph only because I know what it looks like post-election around here, with cries of theft in any close loss and assertions we should have won everything minus Diebold. This is going to be a big year but let's not pretend +25 or higher is truly the baseline number. The posters who are insisting that are ignorant of the true odds and the mathematical unlikelihood of sweeping the close races.

[Zynx]

2. I think that the Republicans will definitely lose control.

They won't suffer the loss of 54 house seats, but they will lose north of 20. That's a prediction I'm sticking to. Whatever bounce Bush had is now gone and without his approval ratings moving well into the 40s the Republicans will suffer big losses. Clinton had a much higher approval rating in 1994.

Another thing is that in 1994 all the late deciders broke Republican. Look for the opposite to happen this year when they break for the Democrats. Late deciders tend to break based on favorability ratings. Bush had higher favorables than Kerry and undecideds broke to him based on that in 2004. With opinions of Republicans so low, undecideds will break against them.

I remain very optimistic here.

[OnTheOtherHand]

3. yeah, the cheerleading and the defeatism are weirdly mixed

The ghost of TIA walks the halls of DU, predicting that the Democrats will lose Congress despite "a full year in which the Democrats held a CONSTANT 10% lead in the Generic Congressional polls." I don't know whether he realizes it, but basically he is rooting for the Republicans to win the 2006 election in order to vindicate his 2004 projection.

(As you know, a 10- or even 13-point lead in a generic ballot among registered voters is not, in itself, a slam dunk for knocking out the incumbents.)

And some other folks have also helpfully predicted that the election will be stolen although there is no way the Democrats could lose it.

Oh well. I'm interested in the numbers about Republicans not wanting most members of Congress to be reelected, which have come way down since June. (The Independent number also came down.) It's counterintuitive that that number could change that much without affecting the generic result. I think it underscores how little attention most people are paying to Congress most of the time.

Oh, the topline PDF ends with the fact that 4 qq are being held for future release. That could be fun.