A coup in the air (US may need quick exit from Iraq)

[rodeodance]

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/HJ21Ak03.html

Oct 21, 2006

A coup in the air

By Robert Dreyfuss

The clock is ticking for Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, the hapless, feckless leader of the Shi'ite fundamentalist party al-Dawa. From Washington, London, Baghdad and other capitals come rumors that Maliki's government will soon be overthrown by a nationalist general or colonel or that he will resign in favor of an emergency "government of national salvation".

A coup d'etat in Iraq would put a period - or rather an exclamation point - at the end of the Bush administration's bungled experiment with democracy there. And it would open an entirely new phase in that country's post-2003 national nightmare. Would it result in the
creation of a Saddam Hussein-like strongman to rule Iraq with a heavy hand? Or would it force the warring parties (Sunni insurgents, Iranian-backed Shi'ite militias and Kurdish warlords) to intensify the bloody civil war that is tearing Iraq apart? No one knows.

As the carnage in Iraq reaches new heights of barbarism, what's clear is the utter uselessness of Maliki's government. It is simply incapable of staunching the bloodletting. Despite weeks of blunt warnings from US officials that time was running out for him, on Sunday the prime minister announced yet again that efforts to disarm Iraq's militias would be postponed. "The initial date we've set for disbanding the militias is the end of this year or the beginning of next year," he said, according to USA Today.

Still, whatever form it might take, a coup stands an excellent chance of making a horrible situation worse. Rather than toy with yet another misstep, the capstone in a seemingly endless series of errors in Iraq, the Bush administration - including the increasingly powerful "realist" anti-neo-conservative policy types now emerging in Washington - would do far better to start planning for a quick exit. ........

[burythehatchet]

1. al-sadr will be running the country

[rodeodance]

2. "suggesting that Iraq's own intelligence service ,,,,is involved:"

...David Ignatius - an exceedingly well-connected reporter at the Washington Post - wrote a column on October 13 citing Mutlaq as well, and suggesting that Iraq's own intelligence service (created, funded, and run by the Central Intelligence Agency - CIA) is involved:

The coup rumors come from several directions. US officials have received reports that a prominent Sunni politician, Saleh al-Mutlaq, visited Arab capitals over the summer and promoted the idea of a national salvation government, suggesting, erroneously, that it would have American support. Meanwhile, top officials of the Iraqi intelligence service have discussed a plan in which Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki would step aside in favor of a five-man ruling commission that would suspend parliament, declare martial law and call back some officers of the old Iraqi army.

Frustration with Maliki's Shi'ite-led government is strongest among Iraq's Sunni minority, which dominated the old regime of Saddam Hussein. But as sectarian violence has increased, the disillusionment has spread to some prominent Shi'ite and Kurdish politicians as well. Some are said to support the junta-like commission, which would represent the country's main factions and include former interim prime minister Iyad Allawi - still seen by some Iraqis as a potential 'strongman' who could pull the country back from the brink.

To be sure, Allawi - in London - denied any reports in an interview with Newsweek that he is involved in plotting a coup. "Total nonsense. To plot a coup, I don't sit in London," huffed Allawi, a long-time asset of the CIA and British intelligence. "I would be sitting in Baghdad trying to make a coup.".......

[Erika]

3. The Bush neo cons own this war

We just pay the costs.

[rodeodance]

4. conditions are ripe-----

[Poll_Blind]

5. There is such a public (and possibly private) denial of reality...

..by the Bush administration I can't help but thinking that the denial and finger pointing will exist for them (Bush and the Neocons) in perpetuity. In perpetuity. Forever. I was thinking about what would happen when Baghdad falls- and I think it's likely now that there is no way Baghdad vis a vis the current government which runs Iraq can continue even for another year. The bloodshed and violence will increase and there will be some moment, I think sooner rather than later, where every inept, unthinking, idiotic move Bush has made in attempts to reconstruct that country, to be more to his liking, will fail.

  Not only fail, but explode- fly to little unidentifiable pieces like a jet engine that's just inhaled a whole flock of migrating geese.

  In Vietnam, from my understanding of history, we were only just able to get out. But in Iraq, there's a certain stubborn flavor to Bush's machinations which indicate, to me anyway, that he's going to ride this one into the ground and beyond.

  What this boils down to, the way I see Bush dealing with this, is blaming another country (like Iran or Syria) for ruining the dish he was cooking in Iraq instead of taking any responsibility himself. Once Baghdad, proper, falls, explodes, disintegrates even further into a pulpy wound which not only has no hope of repair but where veins, arteries, etc. can't even be identified to be stitched and sutured, there will be nothing left for Bush except to take responsibility or retreat a little further into his dreamworld.

  I have no idea what he would do, how he would manifest the legitimacy of his accusations (blaming other countries' influence for his failure) but it would seem likely that some form of violent retribution would be predictable.

  The man has lost touch with reality but, more importantly (and dangerously), he has constructed an entire alternate reality which is more suitable to him. He has no reason to leave this dreamworld, no one to stop him. The ones who would have the most power to stop him, it appears, have also bought into the fantasy. It is extremely concerning.

  If Bush dropped dead of a stroke or a heart-attack, tomorrow, I don't feel like much would change. If Bush AND Cheney both had simultaneous heart-attacks, strokes, whatever, I still don't feel that much would change.

  This insane rot may have started with them but it's spread and gotten roots deep into many minds.

  I am very concerned about how chimerical American reality has become. Being a first-world nation has always allowed us to ignore, in some capacity, the realities of the world- Isolate ourselves in an abstract psychological bubble and call it reality while the rest of the world, to greater and lesser extents, toils for us or for our benefit. We are not the only large country that so exploits others, but our own mess is concern enough.

  Now, even that unrealistic bubble has become unpalatable and another has been constructed. I am so very concerned that we, as a nation, are constructing so many stackable ladders to climb away from reality that at some point the ladders at the bottom will have been pulled up to allow even greater distance from reality and, like Wiley Coyote will find ourselves hovering high in the air, able to recognize the idiocy only for a moment before we plummet.

PB

[PurityOfEssence]

7. Purple prose done right

As Slim Pickens delivered Mel Brooks' line from "Blazing Saddles": "Gee Mister LaMarr, you use your tongue prettier'n a twenty dollar french whore".

George W. Bush is the most dangerous thing alive. Ignorance and vengeance coupled together bring forth very scary results. This is a man who's so very, very narcissistic that everything is simply a reflection of himself. Having failed so obviously in everything (except the Texas Rangers, where he used gangster muscle to take peoples' property through eminent domain) he thirsts for an accomplishment he can call his own. He's a legendary failure. The power of money and its death grip need for control can't save him here.

If martial law isn't proclaimed, his legacy is an embarrassment.

Much as we think we know what the dynamics of power are at the moment, we really don't. Is Junior merely a puppet? Is Deadeye Dick the true power broker? Beats me.

By "Baghdad falls", I presume you mean the green zone. Maybe it won't. Certainly, however, the many factions jockeying for power do understand symbolism. Remember: Iraq is FILLED with very educated and astute people. Although many have been killed, there's still a reserve of quite sentient beings.

The very idea of a simplistic, vengeful, petty nobody who comes from extreme wealth tampering with a truly complex society is mind-boggling. What a mess.

Thanks for the post.

If history is any indicator, the fall will come much sooner than generally imagined.

[bemildred]

13. It is worth observing, Godwin's law notwithstanding,

that Hitler, in his bunker, at the end, was of the opinion that the German people had failed HIM, not being up to the level required by his ambition. It is my impression that large sections of the US political elites were and are still of the same opinion about the people of the USA with respect to the outcome in VietNam, and Iraq now, we failed them. If one reads though PNAC and similar policy papers one see repeatedly hand-wringing about the unfortunate tendencies of the US public to want to mind their own business.

[tavalon]

14. I wish Godwin's Law had never come to be

It keeps very reasonable people from invoking the incredible and ever more increasing ways this administration is so similar to Hitler's Nazis and as well, it keeps equally reasonable people from considering same.

[FrenchieCat]

6. The shit is hitting the fan..........

and it doesn't smell very good!

[Pithy Cherub]

8. But the purple finger people voted for incompetence!

Kind of like this super power with a useless president being installed as president by a court saying he won... Irony has hiccups from laughing so hard.:crazy:

[bklyncowgirl]

9. A military coup could be a way out--they'll bring back Saddam

OK, maybe not Saddam himself, but a dictator friendly to US interests who will crack down on insurgents in a manner that will make the original Saddam look like Mahatma Gandhi.

The Bush administration could put a happy face on this thug and Americans would agree because their troops would get to go home. As for the Iraqis, most of them are probably remembering the days of Saddam Hussein with some fondness--at least they could go to the market without worrying about being blown to smithereens. Innocent people would of course be tortured or killed but that's happening now.

What about the Bush Administration's happy talk about restoring democracy and all of the smiley purple finger people. That will go down the old memory hole and by 2008 the most important voters, soccer moms and NASCAR dads, will not remember the GOP's failed attempt at nation building.

Is this cynical? Yup.

[formercia]

10. History revisited

It didn't work then and probably won't work now:

http://www.historynet.com/magazines/vietnam/3027721.html

The Assassination of Ngo Dinh Diem
Did the bloody downfall of South Vietnamese President Ngo Dinh Diem put the United States on a slippery slope into a quagmire?

By Peter Kross

The brutal murder of the president of South Vietnam, Ngo Dinh Diem, and his powerful brother and adviser, Ngo Dinh Nhu, on November 2, 1963, was a major turning point in the war in Vietnam. Up until the deaths of the Ngo brothers, the United States had been "advising" the government of South Vietnam in its war against the Viet Cong and their benefactors, the government of North Vietnam. At the time, the United States had 16,000 troops in South Vietnam training the ARVN forces and even going so far as to accompany them on helicopter-borne raids deep into enemy territory. American casualties were beginning to mount, and images of the dead were being broadcast on stateside network television.

In the wake of the assassinations, American policy toward the war in Vietnam changed dramatically. The murder of President John F. Kennedy almost three weeks later placed a new head of state in the White House. Lyndon B. Johnson carried on his predecessor's Vietnam policies until 1964, when American participation in the war dramatically increased. A series of corrupt generals ruled Saigon while American forces would eventually reach the 500,000 mark.

What the American public did not realize in the fall of 1963 was just how much the Kennedy administration knew of the coup and of the Central Intelligence Agency's covert role in the background plotting that went on in the weeks prior to the event. In order to fully understand how the deaths of Diem and Nhu affected the outcome of the war in Vietnam, it is imperative that the reader know more about Kennedy's political thinking as he entered the White House in January 1961, and how his training and background in Asian affairs shaped his policies toward Southeast Asia.

[C_U_L8R]

11. Wrong Country

there's only one leader that needs to be replaced

[RedEarth]

12. Very interesting article....