Any chances of Senatorial defectors?

[MindMatter]

Let me go with a hypothetical. Let's say that after the election, the Senate ends up 50 GOP + 49 Dem + Joementum.

Assuming that Joementum doesn't join the GOP, which he really should, that leaves the caucuses 50-50, with Cheney having the decisive vote.

Are there any Republicans who are so fed up with this vile administration that they would switch parties, giving the Dems a 51-49 majority?

I'd guess Olympia Snow, but that would be difficult considering she will have just been reelected as a Republican.

Certainly there could be a few moderate Republicans who would join with 49 dems + J'mentum to block the most offensive of Bush actions, but I'm wondering if there is any real possibility of tipping control of the Senate through a defection.

[AlCzervik]

1. i highly doubt it, some should but in the end they'll stay in their party

even though their party doesn't really want them, course they want their vote though.

[welshTerrier2]

2. absolutely!

check out this thread: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=2889539

[Totallybushed]

3. Why should we have to settle

for underhanded tricks like this? Why can't we just get out there and win? TheAmerican people are with us.

[MindMatter]

5. The GOP has built structural advantages

They have skewed the system to give themselves structural advantages in financing, media support, and vote counting. Dean's leadership has us on the right path, but we can't overcome 30 years of bad party leadership in 2 years.

And we can't even begin to neutralize these GOP structural advantages until we get control of at least one branch of government. Hopefully that begins by taking the House next month.

[Totally Committed]

4. I doubt it...

They'd be found floating face down in the nearest lake the day after their defection.

TC

[Alhena]

6. Good question

I wouldn't be at all surprised to see that happen, or at the very least see the threat made. You may recall that the Republicans offered Jeffords highly coveted committee assignments to stay in the party, after it became clear he was thinking of bolting. He turned them down and left anyway, but I wouldn't be shocked to see it happen again. It's not highly likely, though- Chafee is the main one I could see doing it, and he won't even be a Senator in all likelihood.

[NJ Democrats]

7. I don't think so

[sandyd921]

8. I wouldn't hold out for Snow job.

She's nothing but a shrub enabler. Has voted with the regime 82% of the time. Her moderation is way oversold.

[Daylin Byak]

9. The only one I could see doing it is Lincoln Chafee

Besides having a R next to his name he really isn't that much of a Republican(but he is for free trade) which is why he's my 2nd favorite Senator in the Senate(1st is my Senator, Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania).

I mean the guy dosen't even like Bush.

But I do support Whitehouse just because of taking back the Senate.

[welshTerrier2]

12. Is that the same Arlen Specter who voted for ...

the Patriot Act and the Military Commissions Act? you sure have a funny way of picking favorites ...

[Daylin Byak]

13. Yes and I still like him

I'm not the kind of person that gets extremely pissed off at politicans for one vote then storms his staffers with phone calls.

He's a good guy in my opinion and he comes off as a good guy, he's pro-choice and pro-gun. Those are some of the reasons I like the guy.

Just because i'm a Democrat dosen't mean I can't like liberal to moderate Republicans like Specter or Chafee and you can't stop me to change my opinions just because this is DU.

[welshTerrier2]

14. the Military Commissions Act

is one of the darkest stains on the nation's history ... anyone who voted for it is a total disgrace ... it essentially repeals the Bill of Rights ...

i'm not trying to "stop you" i'm trying to awaken you ... Specter may be a "good guy" but if he is he's a good guy who voted to repeal habeas corpus ... this is not about just "one vote"; it's about one vote that repealed 200 years of American history and the freedoms we've had in this country ...

i don't give a damn whether you like "liberal to moderate republicans" or you don't; i do give a damn that you could support anyone, regardless of party, who voted for that anti-democratic legislation ...

[Daylin Byak]

15. And I thank you for giving me the facts

But I still like him, he's a good politican thats effective at his job and he's no blundering idiot like Rick Santorum.

And I thank him for that.

[sandyd921]

17. It's not exactly a minor vote.

It has the potential of being the beginning of the end of everything this country has ever stood for and maybe even of our democracy (I am hanging on to the hope that this election will prevent that from progressing any further).

:shrug:

[Hippo_Tron]

18. Arlen Specter is the reason that Clarence Thomas is on the bench

Specter does a good thing once in a while because he doesn't want his legacy to be tarnished like Shrub's will be. I'll admit that the guy might actually have a sense of right and wrong but he's too weak to actually exercise it.

[AnnieBW]

10. Collins or Snowe

I'd say that Susan Collins or Olympia Snowe would be the best bets - provided that Chaffee loses.

[DFLforever]

11. Silly me. I thought you meant D to R.

Because I think that's the more likely scenario of the two.

#1 possibility would be Joe. Although I don't think he will consider it unless it's necessary for Rethugs to maintain the Senate.

#2 would be Salazar imo. But if his state continues to go Democratic, it's unlikely.

[Daylin Byak]

16. Salazar won't switch

Cause the times are a-changin in the rockies, his state is trending Democratic everyday. We have a change of taking atleast two congressional district there and how everything is looking, Colorado is about to elect a Democratic Governor.

It won't look good politically if he changes.

[liberalpragmatist]

19. Only if we already have a majority

And particularly if we have a majority + 1 (say, we win all 7 tossups).

It's hard to tell who would switch. I can't see any of them doing so. The Maine women could fit into the Dem caucus, but they have too much hertage with the Republican Party to jump ship. Specter is old and will probably retire in 2010. It's possible he would, but again, he's such a lifelong Republican I just can't see it.

Only Chafee would potentially have jumped ship and he missed his chance - now he's likely to lose his Senate seat as a result.

Of course, you can never completely tell. In 1994, shortly after the Republicans won the Senate, Sen. Richard Shelby, a DINO, switched to the Republicans. But the big surprise was the totally opportunistic party switch by Sen. Ben Nighthorse Campbell, who had a solidly Democratic voting record and jumped ship ostensibly in protest of Democratic "cronyism," but probably to save his own hide.

So maybe we'll get an opportunistic party-switcher like Campbell.

Who? Hm... maybe someone like George Voinovich or Gordon Smith? I can't see it with either of them, but they're probably more likely than any other non-liberal Republican in the Senate.

[dajoki]

20. Chafee?

:shrug: