British odds maker bets on Dems taking both Houses

[powergirl]

http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2006/08/22/guest-slot-lewis-baston-on-the-us-mid-terms/

It would be surprising if the highly conservative (and homophobic) Senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania survived against Democratic challenger Bob Casey. Conrad Burns of Montana is also very endangered by links with corrupt lobbyists and his own foot-in-mouth tendency.

Three other Republican Senators are lagging in the polls at the moment – John Chafee in Rhode Island (easily the most anti-Bush state – the net Presidential approval rating is -54), Jim Talent in Missouri and Mike DeWine in Ohio. The Republicans have narrow leads in a number of other races, including Nevada, Tennessee and now Virginia, where James Webb, once Reagan’s Navy Secretary, has been gaining ground on tarnished Republican golden boy George Allen. There are currently no Democratic incumbents behind in the polls, although the most endangered seats seem to be in Maryland, New Jersey and Michigan.

The picture may be complicated a little by Independents – Bernie Sanders of Vermont would vote with the Democrats, while if Joe Lieberman defeats the official Democrat Ned Lamont in Connecticut his voting behaviour would be less predictable. It might all come down to which side of the aisle Lieberman chooses.

It is tempting to follow the conventional wisdom and look for modest Democrat gains in both houses in November, without control switching in either. The Iowa electronic markets give the Democrats about a 50 per cent chance for the House but only about 20 per cent for the Senate.

But in the past midterm elections have often seen a strong trend, with most of the close races ending up on the same side and a change in the political atmosphere. In 1986 the Democrats gained the Senate surprisingly easily; in 1994 few anticipated the size of the Republican sweep; in 1998 the Democrats’ resilience delivered a verdict on the attempted impeachment of President Clinton. In 2002 the midterms gave encouragement to the Bush administration.

The 2006 results could be a long way from the conventional wisdom on either side. So far, 2006 looks like a Democratic year, and brave punters may find that there is good value in a bet on the Republicans losing both houses.

:bounce:

[MidwestTransplant]

1. Trade Sports has Dem House at 63% Senate 27%