here's why KKKarl's smug remarks about "the math" are just spin

[greeneyedboy]

this keeps coming up all over DU, so i just have to shout this from the rooftops: KARL IS FULL OF KRAP!

1) Democratic voters are motivated, and independents can't wait to kick the bums out.

. . . Let me just first of all state that Karl Rove is on crack. For all his talk of a 72 hour program (the basis of advantage which seems to be leafletting super-church parking lots the Sunday previous the election) and having THE polls, he's merely befuddling the reporters of the simple fact that remains the core of this election: The independents are aligned with Democrats. It was that way last week, and it's been that way all the time, since last summer. . . .
http://www.mydd.com/story/2006/10/30/71417/418 - paragraph 2

2) from Pollster.com: favorable internal polls *always* get released to the press. guess which party is releasing more internal polls to the press?

We cannot see that data, unfortunately, but we might be able to judge Rove's spin by the number of partisan polls that have been publicly released by the campaigns and party committees. Of the polls in our House database, 43 of the partisan polls released since Labor Day came from Democrats, only 11 from Republicans.

I am not giving away any trade secrets in pointing out that campaigns and party committees release internal polls only when they show good news for their candidates. Bad news rarely sees the light of day. If Rove's internal polls really add up to a "Republican House," it is hard to imagine we would not see more Republican polls showing it.
http://www.pollster.com/mystery_pollster/karl_roves_math.php

don't let that pudgy jerk psych you out. he's bluffing.

[ccpup]

1. Or he's spinning and planting this story

so, when he puts the fix in and the close races "magically" go Repug, he can say "see, I told you so" and be considered a "political genius" again.

[greeneyedboy]

3. fortunately, most races aren't close.

[ccpup]

6. close or not,

he'll still try and steal it. Max Clealand from Georgia in 2002 had, I believe, a comfortable margin (maybe 5 or 7 points or something?) and, amazingly!, his repug opponent had a sudden, shocking surge of support on voting day and ended up "winning"!!!!!! Who'd believe THAT would have happened?!?!?!

These repugs have a Master Plan for all of us and they're not about to let something as obnoxiously infuriating as an Election get in the way. Look for them to pull out ALL the stops between now and Election Day.

[greeneyedboy]

7. i am very familiar with their tricks. they work in close races only.

Karl is blowing smoke.

[freeplessinseattle]

8. so be a cop out on your own

if you don't want to vote no need to make excuses. sure misery loves company but doesn't belong here.

[ccpup]

9. dude, take a remedial reading class

:wtf: Nowhere in my Post did I mention not voting. Of course I'm voting, ya dweeb! Everyone should be voting whether or not Karl plays his little tricks with his computer buds.

If you're going to attack someone, at least have something of substance to work with. Pulling sh*t outta your a** to try and b*tch slap me with ain't gonna cut it. :eyes:

Okay, movin' on ... :toast:

[TheWraith]

2. He's trying to prevent a collapse in the base.

If the base thinks that the Republicans have already lost, they're not going to go out and vote, which means an even bigger Dem win. Karl is trying to convince their base that it's not hopeless, while simultaneously projecting an air of power and confidance to try and bring in wavering independents.

[greeneyedboy]

4. yes, he's trying to stave off the LOSER stench as long as possible.

but his luck is running out fast.

[stopbush]

5. They're trying to avoid an absolute rout/landslide for the Ds.

R voters are totally despondent. Rove is conceding the House. He just hopes the Ds don't pick up 60 seats
through R voters staying home.