Rasmussen Polls. MO and TN. still less than 2% separates them.

[cnlst8]

Premium members only so no public link up yet.
likely voters
MO
(D)McCaskill 48%
(R)Talent 47%

TN
(R)Corker 49%
(D)Ford 47%

VA
(D)Webb 51%
(R)Allen 46%

In general, Rasmussen polling is more accurate than CNN polling IMO. It appears CNN polling of TN seems to be out of steps. As for MO and VA seem more in-line with other current polling data.

[KingFlorez]

1. These races are going down to the wire

[dmallind]

2. True

And the bugger is we need two of 'em. With the best will in the world I can only see that as at best a 30% probability. My best guess is we take MO but VA and TN get the religious loonie voters out in force after all and stay in the dark side.

I'm betting the "sure I'd vote for a black guy" in public with "like hell" in private phenomenon keeps Ford out, and the backlash against gay marriage decisions wins it in southern VA. Webb is too little too late and Ford has been slipping slowly in most polls for a couple weeks. It's possible that we don't even get one of these three, but I do think one will come over - again most likely MO.

Love to be wrong of course, but my money's on 5 seats instead of the needed 6 in the upper chamber.

[cnlst8]

3. ? you do realize Webb is leading in this poll as well as 3 other recent ones ...

by at least 4 pts.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virginia_United_States_Senate_election%2C_2006

[dmallind]

4. Yes I do

And I realize that temporary shifts of momentum are normal in the last frantic days of a close election.

Again I'd love to be wrong, but every drop in Allen's lead has been very shortlived before now. Add to that the energizing of the anti-gay crowd and the "I don't weant to look like a racist redneck so I'll pretend not to be an Allen supporter" phenomenon that disappears when they're in the booth and I'm still pessimistic. The Republican GOTV machine is not ALL urban myth after all.

Of course being a pessimist means you have only two options - be proven right or be pleasantly surprised. I'd prefer the latter, but I still think the likelihood is the former.