Has a front runner two years out ever won the nomination in the dem primary...

[bigdarryl]

just wondering with all this talk of Hillary has the nomination rapped up

[dsc]

1. Gore for one

Mondale would likely be another.

[JeremyWestenn]

2. My opinion...

Is that it'll either be Hillary or Obama. A lot of people are writing off John Edwards, not here in DU though, but he is going to be this primaries stealth candidate. The thing is that he has been off running in the primary states for a good long time, he's gonna have more of an edge on people then they think. My personal opinion is that we may have a Hillary/Obama ticket. Which I think we would be hell for the Republicans to fight against.

[bigdarryl]

4. no way as i posted on another forum a Women and a Black man running...

together will not bold well in red state America. no damn way

[bigdarryl]

3. And he lost big time he only won one state. Gore on the other hand...

had the advantage because he was a sitting Vice President plus he won more votes in the history of anyone running for President plus it was STOLEN!!!! from him

[JeremyWestenn]

5. Gore. Won't. Run.

He's said it till he's blue in the face. He won't. Just... Stop. >_< I still think that Hillary and Obama would be a great ticket. I dn't know who else could be her VP.

[Infinite Hope]

7. If Hillary wins, Clark will be her VP.

It's that simple. The Clinton's and Clark are extremely close and if either Hillary or Wesley win the nomination, the other will be the VP candidate. Mark my words.

[Clark2008]

14. Actually, no - they're not that close at all - either physically or

idealogically.

Clark worked for Bill Clinton and they're both from Arkansas and that's about the extint that they "hang out."

[dsc]

6. Jesus would have lost in 1984 in all honesty.

We haven't had primaries for all that long and the frontrunners have done fairly well.

[liberalpragmatist]

8. Gore and Mondale

Kerry was kinda/sorta given a frontrunner tag for the first 6 months of '03. Before then, most of the speculation had been Gore and by mid-summer '03, Dean had the buzz. By December, Dean had seemed to be slipping a little, so it looked like Clark or Gephardt might have an opening. But then Kerry and Edwards crushed Dean and Gephardt in Iowa and got the nominations.

Gore got the nod because he was an incumbent Veep.

In 1984, Mondale had been seen as the frontrunner but there was a lot of buzz around John Glenn (a little like the Obama-buzz, but not as intense). Glenn's presidential bid went nowhere, though. Gary Hart made a race out of it and might have gotten the nomination had the internet been around; at the time, lack of cash caused his bid to stall at the last minute.

Other than that, the track record for frontrunners isn't good, although in some cases it happened because the perceived frontrunners didn't run (Gore in '04, Cuomo).

Since the advent of modern primaries...

1972) Ed Muskie // George McGovern (nom.)
1976) No Clear Frontrunner - Scoop Jackson or Frank Church? // Jimmy Carter (nom.)
1984) Walter Mondale // Walter Mondale (nom.)
1988) Gary Hart, Mario Cuomo // Michael Dukakis (nom.)
1992) Mario Cuomo // Bill Clinton (nom.)
2000) Al Gore // Al Gore (nom.)
2004) Al Gore, John Kerry, Howard Dean // John Kerry (nom.)

[Hippo_Tron]

9. You forgot that in 2004 there was a Joementum frontrunner period

[liberalpragmatist]

11. Yeah, but I don't remember anybody actually thinking he'd be the nominee

Most of the "buzz" focused on Kerry, or maybe Edwards (even Gephardt) after Gore left the race.

Lieberman was ahead in national polls but he never led in any primary state, and I remember few insiders or outsiders expected him to win.

[mrgorth]

12. Thanks.

[TheDonkey]

10. Joementum had the lead at the start

Kerry was second, then dropped off the face of the earth when the primary got hot and Dean's star rose. Of course JK came back after a big win in Iowa.

The game's not over yet.

[rinsd]

13. Sure, John Kerry.

Kerry was the frontrunner two years out.

People cite one poll that had Lieberman but Kerry was in the thick of it until the summer of 2003 when the Dean-mania took over.