(NIE) Report's forecast for Iraq is grim

[babylonsister]

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/chi-0702020160feb02,1,3433084.story?coll=chi-newsnationworld-hed

Report's forecast for Iraq is grim
Sources say classified intelligence document points to further strife

By Karen DeYoung and Walter Pincus
The Washington Post
Published February 2, 2007

WASHINGTON -- A long-awaited National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq, presented to President Bush by the intelligence community Thursday, outlines an increasingly perilous situation in which the United States has little control and there is a strong possibility of further deterioration, according to sources familiar with the document.

In a discussion of whether Iraq has reached a state of civil war, the 90-page classified NIE comes to no conclusion and holds out prospects of improvement. But it couches glimmers of optimism in deep uncertainty about whether the Iraqi leaders will be able to transcend sectarian interests and fight against extremists, establish effective national institutions and end rampant corruption.

The document emphasizes that while Al Qaeda activities in Iraq remain a problem, they have been surpassed by Iraqi-on-Iraqi conflict as the main source of violence and the most immediate threat to U.S. goals. Iran, which the administration has accused of supplying and directing Iraqi extremists, is mentioned but is not a central focus.

Completion of the estimate, which projects events in Iraq over the next 18 months, comes amid intensifying debate and skepticism on Capitol Hill about the administration's war policy. In a series of contentious hearings over the past two weeks, legislators have sharply questioned Bush's new plan for the deployment of 21,500 additional U.S. troops and the administration's dependence on the Iraqi government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki.

Legislators have been equally critical of the intelligence community, repeatedly recalling that most of the key judgments in the October 2002 NIE on Iraq's weapons of mass destruction were wrong. That assessment concluded that Saddam Hussein had amassed chemical and biological weapons and was "reconstituting" his nuclear weapons program. It became the foundation of the Bush administration's case--and congressional authorization--for invading Iraq.

"One of the sort of deeply held rumors around here is that the intelligence community gives an administration or a president what he wants by way of intelligence," Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) told Vice Adm. John McConnell, Bush's nominee as director of national intelligence, during his confirmation hearing Thursday.

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[Connie_Corleone]

1. Friday Afternoon News Dump.

[babylonsister]

2. Yep, and it's a biggie. And they only had to wait how many years? nt