"When independents were "pushed" .. the Democratic advantage ballooned to 10.2 points:50.4% v 40.2%"

[Pirate Smile]

The GOP's Vicious Cycle
By Charlie Cook
© National Journal
This column was originally featured on National Journal on February 17, 2007

-snip-
Making matters even worse for the Republicans, a recent Gallup report, based on an aggregation of the firm's 2006 polls, found a larger percentage of Americans identifying themselves as Democrats than in any year since 1999, and a smaller percentage calling themselves Republicans than in any year since 2000. In Gallup's 30,655 interviews last year, Democrats had a party affiliation edge of 3.9 percentage points: 34.3 percent of respondents called themselves Democrats, 30.4 percent labeled themselves Republicans, and 33.9 percent identified themselves as independents.

When independents were "pushed" -- that is, asked which party they leaned toward -- the Democratic advantage ballooned to 10.2 points: 50.4 percent to 40.2 percent for Republicans. That's the biggest advantage either party has enjoyed since Gallup began pushing leaners in 1991 -- and it is significant. Leaners tend to end up voting for the party they tilt toward almost as consistently as do voters who say they belong to that party.

Republicans can take some solace from the fact that the next national election -- when they might have a chance to turn things around -- is less than 21 months away. But the political environment is so hostile and Republicans have been in such a funk that the GOP could wind up hurting itself still more in the run-up to the 2008 House and Senate elections. Simply put, if a sizable number of GOP incumbents become pessimistic about their party's chances of reclaiming its majorities or if they conclude that getting beaten at the polls next year is a real possibility, we might see a disproportionate number of Republican retirements.

If the GOP is forced to defend a large number of open seats, its chances of making a successful comeback in 2008 will get even worse. Beyond the issue of wholesale retirements, voters' anti-Republican mood could make it difficult for the party to recruit high-quality candidates and to raise money for individual campaigns and party committees.
If this sounds like a vicious cycle, that's because it is. A hostile political environment often results in a rash of retirements, tougher recruiting, and poor fundraising -- all of which feed the pessimism that can lead to still more retirements, even more-dismal recruiting, and anemic fundraising. Around and around it goes.

http://cookpolitical.com/column/2007/021707.php