The American Prospect: Democratic Stars Aligning

[marmar]

Democratic Stars Aligning
With such a stellar line-up of Democratic presidential contenders and such a problematic crop of Republican ones, it promises to be a revolutionary political year.

By Robert Kuttner
Web Exclusive: 02.26.07

Looking at the Republican presidential field, you might be forgiven for thinking that none of the main contenders can be nominated.

The presumed front-runner, John McCain, never a favorite of the Bush crowd, has lately emerged as more hawkish than Bush himself. But by primary season 2008, the war is likely to be even more unpopular, and most Republicans will be distancing themselves from the Iraq mess, not urging its escalation.

Rudy Giuliani did well after 9/11, and was an impressively well-liked Republican mayor in liberal New York. But Giuliani was popular as a steadfast social liberal, respectful of gay rights and abortion rights. Unlike former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, Giuliani was far too forthright to start doing pirouettes now. It's hard to imagine the GOP base going along.

And speaking of Romney, the malleable Mitt has done so many reversals that makers of flip-flop commercials will have a field day. Romney is also on the defensive as a Mormon, since many fundamentalists don't consider Mormons Christians. Almost half a century after the civil rights revolution, this should not matter, but that's right-wing politics for you. Romney is having trouble getting out of first gear.

Of the also-rans, Senator Sam Brownback, a Kansas fundamentalist, is unlikely to travel well. Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee has likewise failed to take off. And Senator Chuck Hagel of Nebraska, a traditional conservative, would make a good president; but he's too vocal a critic of Bush to be forgiven by loyalists. .....(more)

The complete piece is at: http://www.prospect.org/web/page.ww?section=root&name=ViewWeb&articleId=12514

[R_M]

1. We are foolishly pushing Rudy, Johnny, and Romney aside.

The GOP and the mainstream media will close ranks around the GOP candidate. 2008 is F-A-R from won for us. It will be a hell of a job to win in 2008, it can be done, but it won't be easy.

[brazos121200]

2. Yes, reality is a foreign concept for right wing loyalists,

and they will coalesce around whoever gets the nomination. Logically arguing why none of the leading Republican contenders don't deserve their support presupposes logic on their part. I'm sure Rove's political machine will be in full gear by November of 08 and will be able to make any one of their potential nominees look like another Bush to the faithful.

[geek tragedy]

3. Don't get cocky, folks. eom

[HappyWeasel]

4. Yeah, I see what you mean.

I just don't know how it is going to pan out for conservatives unless we won the war by 2008. I am guessing they will eventually go with McCain and that somehow they will be able to comprimise their "let's escalate" back to let's "stay the course". There are 3 or 4 scenarios right now.

It could be another 2000 where both candidates are so relatively weak, that the election hinges on one state and drags out for weeks with the election finally being decided by estoppel or congress. (may or may not have a spoiler that made an otherwised competitive race competitve)

It could be another 2004 where an unpopular candidate just beats the other guy over the head with the war or something that will get one side speaking the loudest.

It could be a 1988/1996 where one side comes out of the gate winning.

[gratefultobelib]

5. I am most concerned about our Dem candidates beating up on each other to

the point that one or the other missteps, disintegrates, you name it. The primary fight could get ugly, and I don't want to see it.