John Nichols: McCain Collapses Into the Margin of Error

[marmar]

From The Nation:


BLOG | Posted 08/10/2007 @ 1:07pm
McCain Collapses Into the Margin of Error
John Nichols


Arizona Senator John McCain will be skipping Saturday's Iowa GOP Straw Poll event in Ames.

And wisely so.

The exceptionally unscientific straw poll has been arranged to provide an early -- if anything but precise -- reading of the enthusiasm in the first caucus state for the various contenders for the 2008 GOP nomination.

For all the straw poll's flaws, and they are many, the event does offer a baseline indication of who is in the running and who is not. To compete, candidates must be able to motivate enough supporters to travel to the university town for a Saturday of political theater and then cast an obligatory vote for the man of their dreams -- or, perhaps, of their least horrifying nightmares.

McCain can't motivate his supporters to take these necessary steps. Why? Because barely anyone in Iowa is supporting him.

Despite a major effort in the state that has seen the Arizona senator make repeated trips to Des Moines, Davenport, Dubuque and dozens of smaller town, the one-time frontrunner for the GOP nod is surfing at 3.2 percent in the new University of Iowa survey of likely caucus goers.

That's down from 21 percent in March, when the university last polled.

How bad is McCain's position? He's got significantly less support than the University of Iowa survey's margin of error. .....(more)

The complete piece is at: http://www.thenation.com/blogs/campaignmatters?bid=45&pid=221809