Rasmussen Reports has released some new polling out of New Hampshire.

[Joanne98]

http://www.mydd.com/

by Todd Beeton, Wed Aug 15, 2007 at 12:51:48 PM EST

Rasmussen Reports has released some new polling out of New Hampshire.

8/9 automated survey of 453 likely Democratic primary voters (June numbers in parentheses):


Hillary Clinton 37 (38)
Barack Obama 22 (21)
John Edwards 14 (10)
Bill Richardson 9 (9)
Dennis Kucinich 4 (3)
Joe Biden 2 (2)
Chris Dodd 1 (2)
Undecided 11

The only real movement that might be happening here is on the part of Edwards, whose 14% is a few points above not only the prior Rasmussen poll but also his 5-poll average (based on Pollster's polling history) of about 11% (without Gore.) Clinton's 15 point lead over Obama represents a bit of a return to form after Obama looked to be closing to within 10 points in New Hampshire.

8/9 automated survey of 434 likely Republican primary voters (June numbers in parentheses):


Mitt Romney 32 (26)
Rudy Giuliani 20 (17)
John McCain 11 (15)
Fred Thompson 11 (17)
Mike Huckabee 3 (3)
Undecided 17 (12)

Here we see a pre-Iowa straw poll Romney surging a bit in New Hampshire, perhaps due largely to Thompson's fall, which would appear to confirm a developing conventional wisdom that Thompson has missed his prime window of opportunity and peaked too soon (although no doubt his entrance in early September will result in a surge of his own.) This poll also gives fuel to a "Romney is rising" narrative that is borne out in the new national Quinnipiac numbers.

I thought this observation from Rasmussen on the impact of independents on the ultimate result in both contests was interesting:

Perceptions of the Democratic race in New Hampshire may have a significant impact on the Republican Primary as well. In New Hampshire, unaffiliated voters can participate in either party’s Presidential Primary. At this point in time, most independent voters say they are likely to vote in the Democratic Primary. These voters are more supportive of Obama than Clinton.

If the race does not look competitive as the voting day draws near, some independents might choose to participate in the Republican Primary. This happened in Election 2000 when it became clear that Al Gore would defeat Bill Bradley. A significant number of independents then chose to vote in the Republican Primary which helped John McCain win the biggest victory of his political career.
http://www.mydd.com/

[jsamuel]

1. Looks like Edwards is rebounding in NH.

[Donnachaidh]

2. yeah it DOES.

:bounce: :bounce:

[William769]

3. Good for John Edwards!

[rodeodance]

4. a milimeter at a time. I wish he would LEAP

[On the Road]

5. a Romney Win is Very Likely

since something like 1/3 of NH residents are formerly from MA. It should really be discounted as a favorite son race, and Romney should not get much momentum from the win. But like Kerry in 04, it may not be interpreted that way.

I am hoping Edwards can come back. In Gore's absence, he is becoming the favorite of the base.

[beastieboy]

8. Thompson better announce or Romney could run away with this.

Either way, they are shitty candidates!

[Double T]

6. Kucinich UP 33%.

[Paulie]

10. See! We have the momentum!!!

Go Dennis!!! :D

[Double T]

11. That's right! Taking baby steps toward the Oval Office.

Kucinich 2008, for the American Revival.

[madrchsod]

7. oh no! it`s new hampshire!

who ever wins new hampshire is going to win. i guess i`m not going to worry about voting because by the time i vote the democratic candidate will already be chosen by ..new hampshire!

[Yukari Yakumo]

9. Why do you think Edwards is investing so heavily in Iowa? {nt}

uguu