Obama and Edwards: One has to drop out for the other to win...what are the scenarios?

[Joe the Revelator]

I believe that its very clear that in order for EITHER Obama or Edwards to win, one must drop out, so that the people looking for an alternative to Hillary can unite behind one candidate.

With that said, this thread is not asking which will drop out first, or who should drop out first. The question I'm asking is what scenarios, in your opinion, would cause one of them to leave the race.

I'm hoping this stays civil.

[Colobo]

1. Well... I think many people that are behind Edwards right now

might wind up supporting Obama. It seems like he is falling behind even in the state he ABSOLUTELY needs to win, Iowa.

That's sad, because Edwards is a great candidate.

[Joe the Revelator]

2. To keep with the thread though...

... does he drop out if he loses in Iowa? Does he stay if he comes in 2nd or 3rd? For how much longer?

[Colobo]

4. I believe Edwards drops immediately if he winds up 3rd in Iowa.

[aquart]

26. Not me.

[Quixote1818]

3. I think they will both stay in much too long for your scenario to play out

Either one of them will pull ahead of Hillary or Hillary will have it wrapped up before one drops out.

[Joe the Revelator]

6. I don't really agree..

If Obama pulls a 4th in Iowa, why does he stay?

If Edwards finishes third or lower does he have enough money to stay in and fight effectively?

[Quixote1818]

10. Interesting points

I don't think Obama will come in 4th in Iowa, however if Edwards comes in third he may pack it in, though I would suspect he may give NH a shot just for the hell of it. One would have to get out before SC for sure. If Hillary wins Iowa, NH and SC then it's all over but either Edwards or Obama would likely take Hillary in a head to head.

[rucky]

46. Depends on where the delagates go after one drops out.

We may not know the outcome of this one until convention.

[rwheeler31]

5. They should both stay in.

Things could change.

[illinoisprogressive]

7. Neither should drop out for the other. They each have the right to run

there is no evidence that Edwards supporters would go automatically to Obama and vice versa. Each man brings his own vision to the race and each has their own passion. They have every right to run. If anyone should drop out of the race it should be Hillary.
She should be in the republican race anyway.

[Joe the Revelator]

8. I'm not saying that one should drop out for the other.

What I'm saying is, that when one eventually does drop out, which will happen, it helps the other more then it helps Hillary.

However, like I said in the OP, whether one should or should not drop out is not the focus of the thread. The question is, what would cause one of them to drop out?

[cobalt1999]

9. The timing is different this year.

With Florida and Michigan going early and then a huge block of states soon after, I don't see anyone dropping out after the first four.

[MannyGoldstein]

11. I Suspect That Edwards Might Run As A Third Party nt

[Joe the Revelator]

12. Interesting thought, care to expand on that? nt

[MannyGoldstein]

21. Just Call It A Hunch

I'm not particularly convinced he will, but it would be fairly consistent with my view of his personality.

[Apollo11]

42. Some dumb hunch - and a slur against John Edwards

Edwards has done nothing and said nothing that would suggest he is anything other than a TRUE BLUE DEMOCRAT.

For Edwards - who was on the Dem ticket in 2004 - to run against the Dem ticket in 2008 (after spending more than 12 months trying to win the Dem nomination) - would be TOTALLY out of character.

Say what you like about the candidates seeking the Democratic nomination - but NEVER ACCUSE one of them of secretly preparing a "Plan B" to run against the Democratic nominee.

I EXPECT ALL THE CANDIDATES WILL SUPPORT THE NOMINEE.

This expectation is implicit in the fact that they are all participating in the primary process.

Including John Edwards.

[Hieronymus]

43. I just can't understand some Democrats that hate Edwards so ...

we know the GOP hates Edwards, because he can win against any republican.

[tritsofme]

13. It would be nearly impossible for him to do so.

Most states have "no sore loser" laws that prohibit candidates that appear on a primary and ballot and lose from running on an independent ticket.

[MannyGoldstein]

23. What If He Pulls Out Of The Primaries Right After NH?

[tritsofme]

33. I assume there are all sorts of filing deadlines in the states, and his name would

still appear on many ballots despite the political end of a campaign for the Democratic nomination.

But while I'm no fan of Edwards, the whole situation seems unlikely to me.

[DrFunkenstein]

39. His Left-Leaning Populism Would Get Nowhere Against Another Dem

In the general election, especially after we've been in the wilderness for 8 years. It'll never happen. The sad thing is that he'll never get a shot at the VP if he doesn't make it, since he's already been around that particular block.

[Yukari Yakumo]

14. Easy, Edwards

At least Obama has a presence in every state. The same cannot be said of Edwards.

However, I'll bet neither will drop out until after Iowa or New Hampshire, which is a shame. Because by that point HRC will likely be unstoppable. She isn't there yet, but unless one of them drops out and endorses the other, they will not win. It's like the old adage, a house divided cannot stand. The "stop HRC" camp cannot succeed if they're divided on which candidate to support.

[Connie_Corleone]

15. If Edwards loses in Iowa to Obama or Hillary, then he would probably drop out.

He would drop out because he won't win New Hampshire after that.

Obama could still go on to New Hampshire if he comes in second behind Hillary, but it'll be tough with Hillary having momentum from a win in Iowa.

If Edwards wins Iowa, I don't think anyone will drop out until after South Carolina.

[Joe the Revelator]

17. Whats your opinion if Obama comes in behind Edwards and Hillary in Iowa? nt

[Connie_Corleone]

20. He stays in until after the South Carolina primary.

[zulchzulu]

31. All of the major candidates will be in the race for February 5th

It would be completely idiotic to drop out before then. 20 states that are voting and the chance that some weekend story before the big day would offer some level of getting some delegates.

February 6th is another matter.

[Apollo11]

44. You are right

Even if Edwards fails to win one of the 4 early states, he might as well stay in the race thru Feb 5th.

He would have nothing to lose and everything to gain from one last throw of the dice.

On Feb 6th, if Edwards has failed to win a single state, his campaign will be over.

But Iowa remains a 3-horse race and the caucuses are impossible to predict.

[pstans]

24. I agree

If Edwards comes in 3rd, he would probably drop out. If Obama or Clinton come in 4th, then they take a huge hit nation wide. However, they have the money to stay in for the long haul.

[jsamuel]

16. Neither of them are dropping out.

[Joe the Revelator]

18. Thats not the question that the thread is asking...

...but if you want to go down that road, its inevitable, eventually one will drop out.

[antiimperialist]

19. There's no evidence that Bam's and Edwards' supporters would vote for each other rather than for Hil

If you have evidence, please provide it.

[Joe the Revelator]

22. Don't "link please" me...

The smart money is on the "stop hillary" crowd rallying around one candidate. Thats not to say that all of there support would go to the other, that would absurd, but it would help whichever one is left standing more then it would help Hillary.

[antiimperialist]

28. I think you overestimate the number of Democrats looking for an alternative to Hil

If there were a significant number of Democrats looking for an alternative to Hil, the polls would show that most Edwards' supporters prefer Obama as a second choice...and Obama's supporters would prefer Edwards as their second choice.

Your theory would be true only in the liberal blogosphere; but we are much better informed than the average voter. I think I saw a poll in which anti-war voters chose Hillary as their favorite candidate. Go figure.

[zulchzulu]

25. The votes are THREE MONTHS FROM NOW

Thinking that either should drop out for the other at this point is proof of being politically amateurish.

A month is political infinity. Three months is impossible to predict.

[Joe the Revelator]

27. Once again, no one has said that the one should drop out for the other...

If you look at the facts of the race, as it stands, there are three top tier candidates. One of those is a front runner, the other two are alternatives to that front runner. At some point in the next four months, one, if not two, will have to drop out of the race. All I'm asking is what would be the catalyst for that.

[zulchzulu]

29. It's not that simple

If you're asking who might drop out, it would be Edwards because of financial problems....although he has enough for the first four states before February 5th.

Neither Obama or Edwards will drop out, except if some incredible gaffe happens or some other unforseen disaster... this is wild-eyed crystal ball speculation at this point...

[Joe the Revelator]

30. It is that simple if you take into account that I would like to discuss multiple scenarios

Its a given that anything can happen. What I wanted to focus on in this thread were scenarios like:

If candidate A comes in # in the * primary, then he will likely fight on until + happens.

[hedgehog]

32. It's called brokering and it's what used to happen at conventions

back in the old days. One will give his delegates to the other in return for some concession such as VP or cabinet position.

[Egnever]

35. And to who's advantage will it work?

Will Hill offer Edwards vp in exchange for him staying in the race and splitting the non Hillary vote ?

Would Edwards dropping early really help Obama or hurt him? In a scenario where Edwards didn't do well in Iowa(I am not saying this will happen)would his staying in the race affect the outcome by drawing support from one or the other?

[Capn Sunshine]

34. Your premise is completely flawed.

Look at the latest poll in Iowa:

Here's the breakdown:

Obama: 28%
Clinton: 24%
Edwards: 22%

And Obama's lead climbs to 8 points when first and second choices are combined.

Looks to me like no one need drop out to win.
Edwards and Obama can defeat Hillary on their own, despite the drumbeat from the partisans to the contrary.

[Egnever]

37. Obama's lead climbs to 8 points

when first and second choices are combined.

So then it helps Hillary for Edwards to be in the race. How does edwards poll if first and second choices are combined compared to Hill ?

[Capn Sunshine]

38. No idea

Like all dedicated partisans, I just take away the good news. I don't know if they asked that but I'll just say that Edwards seems a bigger threat than Hillary in places like Coral City right now.

[Egnever]

40. what poll was it do you know?

[Egnever]

36. I accept your premise.

If this is the case, would it benefit hillary to ofer one of them vp privately to stay in the race to keep that vote split? Thereby assuring her win?

[AtomicKitten]

41. I think Edwards will have $$$ problems.

It's a hell of a way to drop out, but it is what it is. And I agree with your premise, so the sooner this happens the better IMO. Obama for the win.

[GreenArrow]

45. Money talks, bullshit talks

Edwards will be gone after the first round of primaries.

[rucky]

47. Kucinich supporter, here - but I'll show you my cards:

If there is a viable challenger to HRC after Iowa & New Hampshire, I'll throw my support to him. I suspect others will see it this way as well.

I agree with the pundits on MTP yesterday who say that Obama is best poised to go the distance vs. Hillary. Fundraising-wise it makes the most sense.