Senate Picks for 2008

[SteppingRazor]

I've been working this out for a while. Your constructive criticism (hell, even your flamey, harsh criticism) is greatly appreciated. Let me know if I've overlooked anything!

ALABAMA
Incumbent: Jeff Sessions (R) is running for re-election
Challenger: After Rep. Artur Davis said he wouldn’t run last year, the challenge was left to state Senator Vivian Davis Figures. There probably won’t even be a primary, and if there is, it won’t be particularly notable.
Outlook: Sessions will crush Figures by at least 20 points. While there have been some rumblings in the South as to whom to support in the Republican presidential primary, with none of the candidates looking too good, that discontent doesn’t transfer to a guy like Sessions, whose approval ratings have hovered in the high 50s/low 60s for pretty much ever. (STAYS GOP)

ALASKA
Incumbent: Ted Stevens (R) is running for re-election
Challenger: Probably Anchorage mayor Mark Begich. Other names have been tossed about, including state house minority leader Ethan Berkowitz and former governor Tony Knowles, but Begich apparently has the backing of the party.
Outlook: The Cook Report, Congressional Quarterly and all the other prognosticators have this as a likely GOP pickup, but I think they’re underestimating the loathing with which many Alaskan GOP voters greet Ted Stevens after the IRS raid. That raid could not have come at a worse time. Given the pace of your typical federal investigation, charges should be forthcoming just in time for next year’s elections. I’d say it’s a tossup, but I hate weaseling out that way. Instead, I’m assuming that charges are filed, and Stevens, the longest serving Republican in the Senate, goes down in ignominy. (SWITCHES TO DEM)

ARKANSAS
Incumbent: Mark Pryor (D) is running for re-election
Challenger: The initial hope of the GOP faithful was that Huckabee’s presidential run would go down in flames early, allowing him to start a campaign against Pryor. But after the Iowa straw poll, Huckabee is now the top of the second tier. He’s in the presidential campaign until at least February. That leaves former Rep. Asa Hutchinson.
Outlook: Hutchinson lost the governor’s race in Arkansas in 2006 even with a Green Party candidate running as a potential spoiler for Democrat Mike Beebe. In short, this is Pryor’s to lose. (STAYS DEM)

COLORADO
Incumbent: Wayne Allard (R) is retiring
Challenger: With Allard out, and after a slew of potential GOP candidates including everyone from Tom Tancredo to John Elway said they wouldn’t run, this comes down to former Republican Rep. Bob Schaffer vs. Democratic Rep. Mark Udall.
Outlook: Schaffer couldn’t even beat brewing magnate Pete Coors in the 2006 GOP senatorial primary. Coors, of course, went on to get smacked around by Democrat Ken Salazar. So, while the polls have this race in the single digits, count on a Democratic win. (SWITCHES TO DEM)

GEORGIA
Incumbent: Saxby Chambliss (R) is running for re-election
Challenger: After winning a primary against investigative reporter Dale Cardwell, DeKalb County CEO Vernon Jones will run against Chambliss.
Outlook: Much as I loathe Chambliss after what he did to Max Cleland to win his seat, Jones stands little chance against the man. Polls have Jones losing in high double digits, and the gap has only widened. (STAYS GOP)

IDAHO
Incumbent: Larry Craig (R) is retiring. Or not.
Challenger: If Craig retires, we’ll see a free-for-all as potential GOP candidates rush to fill the gap in this blood-red state. If Craig drops out early, allowing Gov. Butch Otter to name a replacement (likely Lt. Gov. Jim Risch), that candidate would have a huge advantage. In any case, the GOP candidate will face perennial Idaho Dem. Candidate Larry LaRocco in the general election.
Outlook: The GOP could put up a ham sandwich and win in Idaho. Polls taken back in September have almost every Republican in statewide office in Idaho beating LaRocco in a senate race if they choose to run. (STAYS GOP)

ILLINOIS
Incumbent: Dick Durbin (D) is running for re-election
Challenger: Some half a dozen potential GOP candidates have sprung up, but all of them are previous losers in other contests, and none have won a major election. Perhaps the most likely to pull off the primary win is Jim Rowe, but only because his defeat in 2006 makes him a more-recognizable name.
Outlook: Durbin should wrap this one up nicely, (STAYS DEM)

IOWA
Incumbent: Tom Harkin (D) is running for re-election
Challenger: A couple of nobodies have declared their candidacies (Steve Rathje chief among them), but a bona fide candidate has not yet declared. Rep. Tim Latham may change all that. If he does get in, he’ll be a shoe-in to win the primary.
Outlook: Whoever wins the primary is immaterial. Harkin can’t lose, especially after 2006, when Iowa turned as blue as the tears of losing GOP candidates. (STAYS DEM)

KANSAS
Incumbent: Pat Roberts (R) is running for re-election
Challenger: Roberts runs unopposed.
Outlook: Even popular Democratic Gov. Kathleen Sebelius would have a tough time here, though she would make it a close race. As it stands, though, Roberts should coast. (STAYS GOP)

KENTUCKY
Incumbent: Mitch McConnell (R) is running for re-election
Challenger: So far, the only declared candidate is state attorney general Greg Stumbo, but a whole laundry list of Dems have signaled a potential candidacy. Most noteworthy among them is Rep. Ben Chandler, who actually beat McConnell in some early polls.
Outlook: If Chandler runs, he’ll win the primary, and McConnell is in for a race. If Stumbo goes unopposed into the general, he’ll probably get beat pretty bad. Either way, McConnell should pull off a re-election (STAYS GOP)

LOUISIANA
Incumbent: Mary Landrieu (D) is running for re-election
Challenger: Pretty much every Republican Landrieu has ever defeated to get where she is today is coming back from the grave to run against her. Her 2002 rival Suzanne Terrell will run, as will 1996 opponent Woody Jenkins. But they’ll probably all get beat in the primary by John Kennedy, who switched to the GOP in August, probably in order to run against Landrieu.
Outlook: It’s tough to admit, but I can’t see how Landrieu wins this. The strong Democratic vote in New Orleans has still not returned in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, and outside of New Orleans, Louisiana has turned more and more red over the last several election cycles, with Bush winning easily here in 2004 and elected a Republican senator the same year. The peccadilloes of said senator, David “John” Vitter, won’t be enough to turn out a hostile anti-GOP vote. (SWITCHES TO GOP)

MAINE
Incumbent: Susan Collins (R) is running for re-election
Challenger: The Dem. Challenger will almost certainly be Rep. Ted Allen.
Outlook: The Rothenberg Political Report lists Collins as vulnerable, but I don’t think so. She’s hugely popular, and the polls have her winning in double digits. Unless the trust that Maine voters have in Collins can be hammered by pointing out a few, somewhat petty, inconsistencies (the fact that she pledged to run for only two terms, for example), Collins should win this. (STAYS GOP)

MASSACHUSETTS
Incumbent: John Kerry (D) is running for re-election
Challenger: Former congressional candidate Jeff Beatty has declared, and there’s a long list of potential candidates, but come on now. This is Massachusetts, for God’s sake.
Outlook: Massachusetts hasn’t elected a Republican senator in over three decades. Kerry coasts. (STAYS DEM)

MICHIGAN
Incumbent: Carl Levin (D) is running for re-election
Challenger: Probably Levin’s 2002 opponent, Andrew Raczkowski.
Outlook: The fact that the GOP can’t drum up anything better than last year’s loser should tell you something. (STAYS DEM)

MINNESOTA
Incumbent: Norm Coleman (R) is running for re-election
Challenger: Sensing blood in the water, a motley crew of DFL Party candidates has risen to challenge Coleman, a Republican senator in a decidedly blue state. Hell, there’s been so many potential Dem. candidates that a couple have already dropped out. The primary will likely come down to lawyer Mike Ciresi and that one guy with the glasses who used to work on SNL. On name recognition alone, Al Franken should pull off the primary.
Outlook: The polls have had Coleman winning by a handful of points for months now – don’t you believe it. While Coleman has been ahead in the polls, his lead has been slowly shrinking. By the time the general election rolls around, Mr. Franken will be ahead by a dozen points. … I’m sorry, did I say “Mr. Franken?” I meant “Sen. Franken.” (SWITCHES TO DEM)

MISSISSIPPI
Incumbent: Thad Cochran (R) is running for re-election
Challenger: There’s a few potential rivals, including Erik Fleming, who lost to Trent Lott in 2006; former Gov. Ronnie Musgrove, who lost to Haley Barbour in 2003; and former attorney general Mike Moore. Moore’s probably the Dem. candidate here.
Outlook: The only way the Dems had a chance in Mississippi would be if Cochran retired and they came out guns blazing with a very strong candidate. Neither of those things has happened. (STAYS GOP)

MONTANA
Incumbent: Max Baucus (D) is running for re-election
Challenger: Baucus will face former House Majority Leader Mike Lange, whose last moment of fame occurred when he ripped into a bizarre, obscenity-laced tired against popular Gov. Brian Schweitzer.
Outlook: Baucus was already pretty safe, but with competition like this, all he has to do is run a commercial featuring Lange’s infamous press conference and the race is over. (STAYS DEM)

NEBRASKA
Incumbent: Chuck Hagel (R) is retiring
Challenger: A slew of candidates have announced on either side, but the likely candidates are former Gov. and current U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Mike Johanns for the GOP and former Sen. Bob Kerrey for the Dems.
Outlook: Kerrey’s days as a politician are behind him, especially in heavily conservative Nebraska. Before he announced his retirement, some polls showed incumbent Hagel losing to a more-conservative candidate in the GOP primary. There’s little room for a Democrat to maneuver here. (STAYS GOP)

NEW HAMPSHIRE
Incumbent: John Sununu (R) is running for re-election
Challenger: Likely challenger is 2002 opponent Jeanne Shaheen.
Outlook: The only reason Sununu is even in office is because of the phone bank scandal. Most New Hampshire voters know this, and they’ll vote accordingly. (SWITCHES TO DEM)

NEW JERSEY
Incumbent: Frank Lautenberg (D) is running for re-election
Challenger: 2006 candidate Tom Kean Jr. is likely to return. In fact, the only potential GOP rival who could beat Kean in the primary is Christine Todd Whitman – her break with the Bush administration way back in 2003 (and subsequent pro-centrist book “It’s My Party Too”) might make her a viable candidate to moderate Republicans fed up with Bush but unwilling to move to the D list.
Outlook: Lautenberg should easily beat Kean, but Whitman could prove a real challenge. Even if Whitman runs, though, Lautenberg is the likely winner. (STAYS DEM)

NEW MEXICO
Incumbent: Pete Domenici (R) is running for re-election
Challenger: Democrats Jim Hannan and Don Wiviott are running. Neither has any political experience to speak of.
Outlook: The US Attorney scandal didn’t hit Domenici as hard as I thought it would, and now that A.G.A.G. is gone, the scandal seems to have gone with him. Unless new developments arise that put Domenici’s role in the firing of David Iglesias back in the headlines, this should be a win for the incumbent. (STAYS GOP)

NORTH CAROLINA
Incumbent: Elizabeth Dole (R) is running for re-election
Challenger: None yet. And with Gov. Mike Easley and Rep. Brad Miller both out, the candidate will probably be a little-known name from the state house or senate.
Outlook: Might have been different with an Easley run, but as it stands, it’s Dole by a mile. (STAYS GOP)

OKLAHOMA
Incumbent: James Inhofe (R) is running for re-election
Challenger: State Senator Andrew Rice
Outlook: Rice doesn’t have a chance. This is Oklahoma, and Inhofe’s bizarre views on global warming will only help him here. (STAYS GOP)

OREGON
Incumbent: Gordon Smith (R) is running for re-election
Challenger: After a primary against activist Steve Novick, Oregon’s speaker of the house, Jeff Merkley, will face Smith.
Outlook: Smith’s approval ratings have been consistently falling, while his disapprovals swing upward. His attempts to grow more and more moderate, even liberal, will not help him. Voters won’t vote for a fake Democrat when they can have the real thing. Gordon Smith is the Lincoln Chafee of this race. (SWITCHES TO DEM)

RHODE ISLAND
Incumbent: Jack Reed (D) is running for re-election
Challenger: None yet.
Outlook: Reed by a mile. (STAYS DEM)

SOUTH CAROLINA
Incumbent: Lindsey Graham (R) is running for re-election
Challenger: None yet.
Outlook: South Carolina is conservative. (How conservative is it?!) It’s so conservative that right-wing tool Lindsey Graham is being challenged in the GOP primary by people running to his right! That joke would be funnier if I wasn’t kidding. And while those yahoos don’t stand a chance, neither does a Dem. challenger. (STAYS GOP)

SOUTH DAKOTA
Incumbent: Tim Johnson (D) is running for re-election
Challenger: State Rep. Joel Dykstra will run against Johnson, assuming governor Mike Rounds stays out of the race (and all indications re that he will).
Outlook: Without a big name like Rounds, the GOP can’t take this seat. Johnson gets the sympathy vote if nothing else, especially now that he has made public appearances and proven that he’s not a permanent vegetable. (STAYS DEM)

TENNESSEE
Incumbent: Lamar Alexander (R) is running for re-election
Challenger: With big-name candidates Harold Ford and Gov. Phil Bredesen sitting this out, the Dem. candidacy will likely go to a smaller fish, possibly Nashville Mayor Bill Purcell.
Outlook: Even if Ford or Bredesen got in, Alexander would probably coast. (STAYS GOP)

TEXAS
Incumbent: John Cornyn (R) is running for re-election
Challenger: Probably state rep. and Afghanistan war vet. Rick Noriega
Outlook: In a June poll, Cornyn had higher disapproval ratings than approval, and Noriega’s war experience could … ah, who am I kidding? This is Texas. (STAYS GOP)

VIRGINIA
Incumbent: John Warner (R) is retiring
Challenger: Popular former Gov. Mark Warner is in, as is GOP Rep. Tom Davis, who may face a primary against former Gov. Jim Gilmore.
Outlook: I don’t care if it’s Davis or Gilmore. Virginia is fed up with the GOP, and the voting base is trending northward, toward the bluer regions of the D.C. suburbs. This one’s a win for the Dems. (SWITCHES TO DEM)

WEST VIRGINIA
Incumbent: Jay Rockefeller (D) is running for re-election
Challenger: None yet.
Outlook: Rockefeller has approval ratings in the high 60s. Nuff said. (STAYS DEM)

WYOMING
Incumbent: Michael Enzi (R) is running for re-election
Challenger: None
Outlook: With the special election happening at the same time, any potential Dem. candidates are likely to look there to unseat a Republican in Wyoming. Thus, Enzi will coast. (STAYS GOP)

WYOMING
Incumbent: John Barrasso, appointed to replace late Sen. Craig Thomas, will run for re-election
Challenger: None yet, but if Gov. Dave Freudenthal runs, this could get close.
Outlook: In heavily red Wyoming, I gotta go with the GOP (STAYS GOP)

So there you have it. A grand total of six (6) pickups for the Dems and one (1) for the GOP, leaving the final tally of the Senate at 56 Dems and 44 GOP – still not filibuster-proof, but with a Dem. president, there’ll be a lot of opportunities to get things done.

[ronnykmarshall]

1. I like the looks of that!

Wish we could get to 60, but I'll take 56!

[Ninja Jordan]

2. great post

[PearliePoo2]

3. Virginia

I thought John Warner was retiring?

[SteppingRazor]

4. Whoa! Thanks! I changed it. I wrote the entry as if he was retiring...

but for some reason, I wrote "running for re-election" under the incumbent bit. Anyway, it's changed. Thanks! :hi:

[PearliePoo2]

7. figured it was a little slip-up

you did some nice work here, thanks for your efforts.
I think you might be a little conservative on the Dem wins but your tally of 56 (D)I believe is a real pretty starting place.
K&R for your hard work and analysis.

[karynnj]

5. As a new Jerseyan, I think you grossly over estimated Whitman

When she first came to office, she had real potential, if the Republicans would have not shifted to the right. She was picked to rebu one of Clinton's SOTU speeches, because she was bright, articulate and an attractive female. As governor, she gained some pretty bad baggage. In a completely deplorable episode, while with the state police, she frisked a young, black man stopped for a crime, who for the governor's protection had already been frisked. This caused an uproar.

As Bush's EPA head, she was the person who said the air quality in Manhattan was safe in teh wake of 911, when it wasn't. A significant number of NJ votes work or visit Manhattan frequently. It used to take only about 10 - 15 minutes by a subway (PATH) to get from Hoboken to the WTC.

In addition, the Republican party in NJ has tended to elect people like Forrester, who are to the right. I don't think she could get elected by the Republicans anymore.

[SteppingRazor]

6. Excellent points. I think Kean's the likely candidate.

But, all good points about Whitman. The EPA bit (and her subsequent cowardly testimony before Congress, in which she said that the EPA meant only that the air was safe for Manhattan workers, not for rescue workers directly at Ground Zero) definitely made me think twice about her. And I've gotta admit, I wasn't sure about the New Jersey GOP's tendency to go far to the right in the primaries.

[karynnj]

8. I think Kean is too - another possibility is Chris Christie

He is a federal prosecutor who has gone after many NJ state officials for corruption, mostly Democrat, but some Republican. Right now, NJ has had another long series of indictments of corrupt officials. Corruption and was part of the reason that McGreevey quit. You know why Lautenberg replaced Toricelli. Corzine has been accused, though there is no proof of at least the appearance of conflict of interest because he gave around a$1 million to a woman he once dated who heads a union that the state negotiates with. There have also been several lower figures indicted.

The Democrats control most of state government - thus most of the corrupt people are ours. Lautenberg has never in his long career been accused of anything. He also was very good last year speaking at a Democratic event. He is really good. Some of these polls that have shown that people thing he is too old are essentially push poll. But, it could play a part.

I know that in 2005 (gov), and 2006 when I did some canvassing and calling - at least in my area, which is one of the most Republican areas, many Democrats and Independents raised this issue spontaneously. That was likely why Kean tried to make it his only issue - even though Menendez was not corrupt.

[Hippo_Tron]

9. I don't agree on Alaska, Maine, and Louisisana, and Nebraska

In Alaska Democrats haven't done so well in the past few elections despite scandals. Plus at the end of the day, remember that Stevens brings home the pork.

As far as Maine goes, Tom Allen is about the best candidate that could be put up against Collins, who isn't nearly as popular as Snow is. This race will get tighter as it gets closer and I think it will be a nail biter.

In Louisiana, Landrieu is vulnerable but I'm still leaning toward her to win re-election. John Kennedy is a lightweight and the fact that Rove had to court him into switching parties because he struck out with getting any better Republicans like Charles Boustany. She's also got two terms of seniority under her belt and sits on appropriations, something that Louisiana won't be so quick to give up after Katrina.

Nebraska, I think will be a tossup if Kerrey runs. He is pretty conservative and he has charisma comparable to Bill Clinton. Also Mike Johanns has been attempting to get cuts in agriculture subsidies while serving as Secretary of Agriculture, a position that I actually agree with. But in Nebraska, a big farm state, Kerrey can hammer him on that.

[oasis]

10. 55-44-1. Many have a hard time embracing Joe Lieberman as a Dem.

:thumbsdown:

[SteppingRazor]

11. Regardless of Lieberman's views, he caucuses with the Dems.

That's the only reason I gave the 56-44 count. Technically, It'd be 54-44-2, counting both Lieberman and Saunders as indies.

[Rainbowreflect]

12. Great info! But I would not rule out Nebraska going Dem.

[SteppingRazor]

13. Like I said in the OP, those primary polls showing Hagel losing to Jon Bruning...

scared me away from the idea that a Dem. stands a chance here. If an incumbent GOP can be beaten in a primary by a a run from the right, it does not bode well for Dems in that state.

Think about the flip side, in which Lieberman was beaten by Ned Lamont in a primary. Could you imagine a Republican winning in Connecticut? (Smart-ass comments about Lieberman being a Republican aside. :P )

[Rainbowreflect]

25. I think the only reason Bruning would be a head of Hagel is

because the far right in Nebraska (there are a lot of them) are mad at Hagel for daring to speak against the bush. But most people in Lincoln and Omaha won't support Bruning.

[AX10]

14. I don't agree about Nebraska and Maine.

We'll see what happens. We could get 58 seats next year.

[SteppingRazor]

15. Hey, if we get Nebraska and Maine while also protecting Louisiana...

and also pick up one other (New Mexico, maybe, if the scandal resurfaces?), we've got our 60!

I don't think it's very likely -- heck, I think even my OP is a fairly rosy picture -- but it's within the realm of possibilities.

[cascadiance]

19. Heck why stop there... I want a constitutional ammendment Senate!

One that we can really start "fixing" things like Roe v. Wade and "corporate personhood"!

We might have to wait until 2013, but hey, maybe if we can get impeachment back ON the table and force some Rethugs into voting for the president and against the will of the people at the time, things might be possible!

[PearliePoo2]

16. Hey.......one more vote needed for "The Greatest"

Come on, let's give this DU'er some recognition for his in-depth work and analysis.

[terrya]

17. This looks good! And seeing Coleman lose...

will be almost as sweet as seeing santorum lose in 2006.

[Froward69]

18. Thank you for the medicine

I feel better.

[jgraz]

20. God, I wish Cleland would run against that POS Chambliss

The guy is a fucking disgrace. It's sad we're going to have to put up with such idiots for another 6 years.

[stevedeshazer]

21. Great piece of work!

I agree almost entirely with your analysis.

I doubt Alaska will elect a Democrat, despite Begich's popularity. If the Ted Stevens scandals continue to mount, though, all bets are off. Crazy Ted has brought home so much bacon to Alaskans that even though they all know he's batshit crazy, they'd reelect him for guaranteed annual oil checks.

I also think Susan Collins in Maine is more vulnerable than you think.

And, being from Oregon, I think Gordon Smith is going to be very hard to knock off despite our blue reputation. But I'll be working for Jeff Merkley after the primary, so I'll have a personal stake in it. I despise Gordon Smith for being a phony moderate and I want him GONE.

Again, great analysis. Good job.

[MasterDarkNinja]

22. Great work, though I disagree on a few of them

Alaska - I just can't see the dems picking it up, I think Ted Stevens would retire if things got so bad that he couldn't win an election, and then we won't stand a chance.

Maine - I think things the polls will start getting a lot closer once the campaign truly begins and they start attacking each other on TV. Susan Collins could lose, though it's not a sure thing.

Nebraska - I don't think primary challenges are the best way to determine "there's no room for a dem here", I mean look at PA, here Arlen Spector almost lost the primaries last time, but won reelection pretty easily after that, but then in 06 we beat Rick Santorum real bad, with like 60% of the vote. Run the right candidates on both sides of the isle and a democrat pickup is quite possible. It will be difficult to pick up Nebraska, even with Bob Kerrey running for us, but it's not outside of the realm of possibility.

Also some of the races won't be as easy as you say, like grabbing Oregon and Minnesota (especially with Al Franken, he does much worse then some of the other dems running in the primaries when you look at the polls). Those may be states leaning blue, but the moderates are tougher to take down then extreme right wingers, still I think things favor the dems narrowly picking up those two seats at the moment.

[Jim Lane]

23. You forgot Delaware

Biden's term is expiring. Assuming that he doesn't get the Presidential nomination, he'll run for re-election to the Senate and be a shoo-in. If he's on the national ticket (in either spot), would Delaware law allow him to run for the Senate as well, as Lieberman did in 2000? If it's allowed, would he do it? I haven't seen any information about what to expect in the Senate race if Biden isn't the candidate, presumably because most analysts think he'll face no conflicting demands on his time.

Thanks for your work assembling this list!

Any political junkies who can't get enough of this sort of thing can find a similar state-by-state rundown here: http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2007/Senate/senate_races.html

[OregonBlue]

24. Lots of ifs but if he does make it onto the ticket and if he can still run for reelection he better.

Edwards was so stupid not to keep his Senate seat. Of course replacing Biden with another dem would be easier than replacing Edwards with one but still, why take the chance.

[SteppingRazor]

26. Oops! Thanks for pointing this out. As for Biden, he can run for both simultaneously...

and will certainly do so. In the very slim chance that he didn't, though, Delaware would probably be a tough battle, as the GOP has a ready-made candidate in Delaware's sole congressman, Mike Castle. The Dems would, I assume, go with Gov. Ruth Ann Minner. Then again, in these days of familial dynasties, I wouldn't be surprised to see a run by state attorney general Beau Biden.

[AZ Criminal JD]

27. Great post and analyzing of the races

Although I am not quite as optimistic as you are in Minnesota and Oregon.

[Jim Lane]

28. Breaking news... New Mexico.... Domenici retirement

According to by 420inTN, Domenici will announce his retirement tomorrow. New Mexico is a swing state so I'd think a Dem would have at least a chance, and maybe more, depending of course on who the candidates are.