"Northeast Polling Warning Signs" - Guiliani strong in the northeast

[SaveElmer]

Good diary by Chris Bowers arguing Guiliani will be relatively strong in the northeast...and that Hillary is the candidate that most effectively neutralizes his strength there...

Also, I want to point everyone to a new Rasmussen general election poll in Connecticut:

Rasmussen, September 27th, 500 LVs, no trendlines.
Clinton 46%--40% Giuliani
Clinton 54%--32% Thompson
Clinton 54%--31% Romney

It is nice to see Clinton back ahead in Connecticut, but it is alarming to note that Giuliani performs 16-17% better in a northeast state like Connecticut than other top Republicans. Now, consider Survey USA's latest from Massachusetts

Survey USA, (9.14-9/16, 525 RVs, MoE 4.3):
Clinton 59%--34% Giuliani
Edwards 48%--40% Giuliani
Obama 48%--43% Giuliani

Clinton 61%--32% Thompson
Edwards 56%--31% Thompson
Obama 53%--36% Thompson

Clinton 65%--31% Romney
Edwards 57%--32% Romney
Obama 53%--36% Romney

Like Giuliani among Republicans, Clinton outperforms the rest of the Democratic field in a northeast state like Massachusetts. Now, I point this out, since there were those who mocked my maps yesterday showing Giuliani competitive in Massachusetts. However, I think it should be pretty obvious now that Giuliani will make Massachusetts a lot closer than it has been in recent elections if he is matched up against someone in the general election besides Hillary Clinton. In fact, both Connecticut and New Jersey would become full-blown swing states if Giuliani is the nominee, and they might even lean toward Giuliani if someone other than Clinton is the nominee:

Quinnipiac, 9/18-23, 1,230 RVs, MoE 2.8
Giuliani 45%--44% Clinton
Giuliani 49%--40% Obama
Giuliani 50%--39% Edwards

Obama 49%--34% Thompson
Edwards 48%--34% Thompson
Clinton 49%--36% Thompson

Edwards 51%--30% Romney
Obama 51%--31% Romney
Clinton 52%--33% Romney

Dismissing the northeast as safe Democratic territory, even in the event that Giuliani is the nominee and Clinton is not, is foolish. One can see exactly the same pattern in New York, where everything is a blowout except for two matchups:

Survey USA, 9/14-9/16, 510 RVs, MoE 4.3
Obama 49%--44% Giuliani
Giuliani 46%--45% Edwards

If you want to know why I don't buy the notion that Clinton is less electable than other Democrats, or that Rudy Giuliani isn't a threat in the general election, polling in the northeast is one of the major reasons why. If we find ourselves in a serious fight over New York, New Jersey and Connecticut, and a much closer than expected fight in Massachusetts, then the electoral math becomes extremely complicated. And just imagine Giuliani bombarding those northeast states with ads in the spring and summer while our nominee does not have the ability to fight back and is getting smeared by the Republican Noise Machine. That is a total freaking disaster in a year that is supposed to be so favorable to Democrats. Coming back from that hole will return us to the Gore and Kerry strategy of trying to slip in through a keyhole by running the swing state table.

http://www.openleft.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=1688

[rinsd]

1. New Jersey has been more supportive of Rudy than NY has.