http://www.raisingkaine.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=10593What's going on here? I'm not sure exactly, but it's almost certain at this point that these numbers are not a fluke. The fact is, Webb has been consistently trailing Warner in the approval ratings since he took office 9 months ago. About the only conclusion one can reach is that Virginians are happier with John Warner's job performance than they are with Jim Webb's.
Given that Webb's numbers have not been changing significantly, it's hard to blame his relatively poor approval ratings on this vote (FISA) or that one (MoveOn). Back in February, before the FISA or MoveOn controversies, Webb was +5 points (47%-42%). In June, Webb was +3 points (44%-41%). Today, he's +4 points (46%-42%). That's essentially no change in approval for Webb despite all the ups and downs in Congress. The bottom line is that Virginians are fundamentally split on Jim Webb, while they overwhelmingly approve of John Warner's performance in office.
It's important to point out that this isn't a Democratic problem more broadly. Tim Kaine is +20 points, while Mark Warner is viewed favorably by a 3:1 margin (50%-14%) in our state. For whatever reason, this appears to be about Webb specifically, not about the Democratic "brand" more broadly.
The bottom line is that Virginians are still not completely comfortable with Jim Webb as their Senator, almost 11 months after his 9,000-vote victory over George Allen and nearly 9 months since he took office. But no matter what he does, they love John Warner.
What accounts for the difference in approval ratings? Is it the continuing aftermath of the rough campaign against George Allen (could that help explain the intense Republican opposition to Webb)? Is it personality (Webb perceived as a gruff, introverted Marine? Warner seen as a moderate senior statesmen and a good guy?) Is it ideology (not sure what the issue would be here, though...Warner's support for the Iraq war and Webb's opposition would tend to push in the opposite direction)? Is it constituent services (but then why haven't Webb's numbers changed since he took office)? I don't get it, unless it's almost purely personality. I'm stumped, what do you think?
Edit: there are a lot of comments to this post, so you can sift through the different reasons why people think Webb's numbers are where they are.