Eleven Republican Incumbents Have to Watch Their Backs in House Primaries

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Eleven Republican Incumbents Have to Watch Their Backs in House Primaries
By CQ Staff | 5:01 PM; Oct. 02, 2007


Despite public criticism of Congress as a whole, voters typically re-elect their own representatives year after year. Not many incumbents are defeated in general elections, and even fewer lose primary races against members of their own party.

But primary contests can be the only meaningful outlet for voter discontent in congressional districts that are gerrymandered, as so many are these days, to ensure that one party or the other will always win the general election.

Such lopsided districts dominate the list of 16 across the nation identified by Congressional Quarterly’s CQPolitics.com as featuring contests for 2008 in which U.S. House incumbents are seeking re-election in the face of unusually vigorous primary challenges.

Of the 11 Republican-held districts with serious incumbent primary contests — profiled today by CQpolitics — the party has an overwhelming advantage in eight and is unlikely to be at risk of losing the seat regardless of whether the incumbent or a challenger wins the primary. The only exceptions are California’s 4th District, where ethics controversies surrounding Republican Rep. John T. Doolittle have produced what appears a toss-up race in what is usually a slam-dunk Republican constituency; Ohio’s 2nd District, typically a GOP stronghold, where Republican Rep. Jean Schmidt personally has struggled to attain a firm hold on the seat; and Florida’s 8th District, where Democrats, as in 2006, are engaged in a bid to upset Republican Rep. Ric Keller.

All five of the Democratic-held seats where CQPolitics found significant primary challenges to incumbents are in “Safe Democratic” districts. These districts were profiled by CQPolitics on Monday.

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http://www.cqpolitics.com/2007/10/eleven_republican_incumbents_h.html