Democratic Underground Latest Greatest Lobby Journals Search Options Help Login
Google

Former Clinton strategic consultant cites Edwards as "Strongest Democrat in GE Matchups"

Printer-friendly format Printer-friendly format
Printer-friendly format Email this thread to a friend
Printer-friendly format Bookmark this thread
This topic is archived.
Home » Discuss » Archives » General Discussion: Presidential (Through Nov 2009) Donate to DU
 
Ninga Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-04-07 09:30 AM
Original message
Former Clinton strategic consultant cites Edwards as "Strongest Democrat in GE Matchups"


"Behind the Horse Race Numbers: Edwards Strongest Democrat in General Election Match-ups
A Commentary by Douglas Schoen
Thursday, October 04, 2007

The most recent Rasmussen Reports data show that all of the most likely Democratic nominees lead their strongest prospective opponents. At this point John Edwards appears to be strongest in individual match-ups leading Giuliani by 9%, Thompson by 10%, and Romney by 11%.

Hillary Clinton holds almost as big a lead, but falls just short of Edwards' margin. She leads Giuliani by 5%, Thompson by 8%, and Romney by 9%.

Barack Obama holds a more narrow 5% lead over Giuliani, a 6% lead over Thompson, and a 3% lead over Romney.

How do we explain these findings, in the wake of Edwards' third place showing in Democratic primary trial heats?

First, one naturally points to Edwards' southern roots. Since John F. Kennedy's victory in 1960, the only Democrats to win the Presidency were southern Democrats Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton.

Second, Edwards--despite his current left wing rhetorical appeal--is actually perceived as more conservative than either Clinton or Obama.

Overall, 44% perceive Edwards as liberal in comparison to 51% who percieive Obama as liberal and 57% who see Clinton in this way.

By contrast, 13% characterize Edwards as conservative, compared to 8% who see Clinton and Obama in this way.

Finally, Edwards at this point demonstrates the greatest appeal to Independents beating Guiliani by 13%. Obama wins Independents by 5% and Clinton wins them by 3% against Guiliani.

All of this may well be academic as Clinton leads national trial heats for the Democratic nomination according to the Real Clear Politics average. She also holds double digit leads in New Hampshire, Florida, South Carolina and every early or important primary state. Rasmussen noted earlier this week that a Clinton victory is not inevitable, but she is the clear frontrunner.

The only place Clinton doesn't have a solid lead at the moment is Iowa. Rasmussen noted recently that Iowa has become a must-win state for Obama. Despite his success in general election polling, the same is true for Edwards.

Douglas Schoen is a founding and former partner of Penn Schoen & Berland, and a Fox News Contributor.

Schoen was President Bill Clinton's research and strategic consultant during the 1996 reelection campaign."
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
onehandle Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-04-07 09:36 AM
Response to Original message
1. Coattails----->
I believe that any Democrat has this sewn up, but some Democrats...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=3496258
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
ChiciB1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-04-07 09:43 AM
Response to Original message
2. The Reality Here Is That Hillary IS NOT A Liberal! Nor Was Bill
Clinton all that much. I KNOW he was to the Right of me, even though he was effective in his own way.

But I must say this. As an extremely intelligent man, I NEVER could understand how he could have let THEM catch him in the Monica fiasco! Given how much THEY despised him, he should have been aware that THEY would look for ANYTHING to hang him with! And let's NOT forget, this very STRONG LEADER (so-called) his wife, actually looked the other way because of what I think was to ADVANCE "her agenda" and I can't go along with that! Plus, let's not forget her most recent vote that really torques me to the core!! And just WHO was it who took her on??? None other than JOHN EDWARDS! He CAN pull in the South, I live here... and many, many have a bad taste in their mouth about Hillary! Rednecks or not!

I myself left my husband when I heard about ONE incident (that I knew of) and HE was very devastated. We were apart for about 9 years and I had two young kids. Hillary never would have faced ANYTHING like I had to, and she had the means to promote HERSELF, but chose to "stand by her man" for her own selfish reasons!

Incidentally, we have remarried, but I DID stand my ground and I got through!
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
DemocratSinceBirth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-04-07 10:02 AM
Response to Reply #2
7. He CAN pull in the South, I live here
Former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards has fallen sharply behind New York Sen. Hillary Clinton in his home state, according to a new poll.
Clinton was the favorite of 37 percent of self-identified North Carolina Democrats surveyed, compared to 18 percent for Edwards, according to an Elon University Poll released today. Illinois Sen. Barack Obama was the choice of 18 percent of those polled.

"Hillary Clinton has a striking lead over both John Edwards and Barack Obama among North Carolinians," said Hunter Bacot, director of the poll. "This is noteworthy given that this is Edwards' home state."

http://www.newsobserver.com/politics/story/719795.html


Kerry-Edwards actually did worse in the Tarheel State in 04 than Gore-Lieberman did in 00...
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
ChiciB1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-04-07 10:25 AM
Response to Reply #7
11. May Have YOUR Facts Correct From Then... But Most Of It Was About
the FLIP-FLOPPING crap from SWIFT-BOATERS AND "all things The Southern Idiots" so easily attach themselves too!

You seem NOT to understand that Edwards is no longer TIED to that faction! I won't support Hillary myself, won't campaign for her AND will ONLY vote for her if it's ABSOLUTELY necessary! And unless OR until MSM STOPS this insane Hillary Mania DRUM-BEAT, John Edwards CAN win!!

I happen to live in that very "special" county that was RULED by Katherine "Cruella" Harris and many REPUKES have turned against THEIR own Party! Without the Hillary IS THE ONE, almost every minute of the day, those who have turned almost "hate" Hillary too!

I'm a Dem and am so very against her MYSELF!!
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
karynnj Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-04-07 11:26 AM
Response to Reply #11
13. "That faction"
Edited on Thu Oct-04-07 11:27 AM by karynnj
You mean the Senator who co-authored Kerry/Feingold, leading on Iraq when Edwards was still equivocating, who had a near universal health care proposal in 2004, when Edwards didn't and spent most of the end of February claiming that Kerry, a Senator on the prestegious Finance committee, couldn't pay for, who had a 96% lifetime rating with the League of conservation voters and a 3 decade record as an environmentalist that included being the lead person on the first multi-country cap and trade program for acid rain? That faction? The one that beat Edwards in all the Southern primaries except the Carolinas. That faction that Edwards would likely welcome an endorsement from?

Kerry isn't winning, but does not need to attacked to elevate Edwards.

PS Kerry was NOT a flip flopper - even the example used was bogus. Could Edwards' record lead to him being called a flip flopper? Not to mention that Kerry was the war hero the Navy considered him to be when they gave him those prestigious medals.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
ChiciB1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-04-07 01:15 PM
Response to Reply #13
14. Please DO Forgive Me... You're Attacking The Wrong Person Here...
I may have used John Kerry's name, but my reference was to THE MORANS WHO BOUGHT that crap! I waited for far too many years to see JOHN KERRY run for President. I STILL HOLD HIM IN VERY HIGH REGARD!

What I meant to convey is that so many dumb-ass Rednecks "bought into" what was nothing more than complete FICTION! John Kerry is "my generation" and I'm one of those old time LIBERALS who actually lived the Viet Nam era! I'm an Army brat, who lived and went to school in a place called Killeen TX, or Ft. Hood as some may know. The home of the 1st AND 2nd AD back then. The place where FAR too many were stationed and shipped out from, and far too many were DRAFTED from! I saw FIRST hand my fellow classmates get "drafted" and know friends who died there!

Jane Fonda actually came to Ft. Hood and demonstrated and had MANY MANY soldiers supporting and marching with her in the streets there. A place where the soldiers themselves started their own little uprising by creating a place called The Oleo Strut! And I'm also a person who realizes that soldiers coming back from Viet Nam weren't "spit upon" as folklore would have you think! It was the soldiers who were against the war while they were in Viet Nam, who began to realize that Viet Nam was a CROCK! They began "fragging' their officers and came back wounded, heart sick and denied VA service that was and IS due them today. In my 20's & 30's I "partied" with many who survived and came back with some very disturbing stories and a great deal of anger too. I got married waaaay too early just to keep my husband from getting drafted! We did get divorced but remarried later.

Going back to class reunions is somewhat difficult because we were good friends and still are. But far too many of them are simply "rednecks" and we CAN NOT talk politics! Some have seen the light though!

I live in a very "red" county, but when Kerry came to Tampa, FL I did everything I could to get in the inner circle just so I could shake his hand! I came away thinking that he had very sad eyes, but a very good heart. He was "DUN DIRTY" by some very DIRTY corrupt people! And, BTW... THEY did not lose! I watched the returns here in FL, county by county and as soon as they realized Ohio was becoming a problem, I ACTUALLY saw what I can only call VOTE DUMPING in large amounts, even in Democratic counties! Katherine "Cruella" Harris got one large dump of 40,000 and I KNEW the JIG was up! If you watch TV you would get updates of 1,000 or so, but those vote dumps remain seared in my brain, and I KNOW Kerry won Florida for sure!

Just don't forget who we were and are dealing with, and unfortunately I'm suspicious about Hillary for this reason. My thinking is that they aren't going to go the "fraud" route, they're just going to keep the "push" going so FRAUD won't be suspected. If she's perceived as the WINNER now, who's going to question it later?? The D.C. game is "Power Central" and it has already been said that THEY hate John Edwards because he wants to upset their little Apple Cart! I could go on about my thoughts regarding this, but have ranted enough for now!

We could do with many more like John Kerry, but too many Democrats these days try to play it faaaaar too safe! It really pisses me off too. And Hillary Clinton IS NO Liberal!


Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
OHdem10 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-04-07 09:53 AM
Response to Original message
3. To be fair--when directly asked, Bill Clinton says he is a
Conservative Democrat. He has never pretended to be a Liberal.

We have let the GOP "snooker" us. God, Guns and Gays do not a
Conservative make. Pres. Clinton is pretty much a liberal on these
issues.

Economic Conservatism affects us everyday and every moment of
our lives. This is why Greenspan describes Bill Clinton as
the best Republican President he has seen in a long time.

My impression of Hilary is she has a Conservative Head
and Liberal Heart and a keen sense of fairness. She will
balance head and heart.

I have chosen not to have a dog in this fight. Will vote
for whomever is our Candidate in the Primary.

I think we need to be fair to all candidates.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Ninga Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-04-07 10:08 AM
Response to Reply #3
9. I seriously question if "budget hawkishness" can co-exist with a "liberal heart"
Edited on Thu Oct-04-07 10:09 AM by Ninga

Following is an analysis of how Bill Clinton's budget was a gift to Newt Grinch, and how Hillary might conduct herself in office regarding budget matters.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x1963525


-snip-

Even with the leftward thrust (both genuine and illusory) of Obama and Clinton, important differences remain. The one I'll discuss here is bigger than any single position or set of positions: it's a matter of fundamental ideology. Edwards rejects--transcends--the budget hawkishness that has defined the Democratic Party since for the last fifteen years. Along with the "free" trade regime, which Edwards has also rejected, budget hawkishness defines New Liberalism. Call it Clintonomics, or Rubinomics, or DLCism. I call it wrong and stupid. Bipartisan budget austerity was Clinton's gift to Newt Gingrich. It denies people important programs and the Democrats the benefits of delivering them. It also precludes the kind of economic growth that would reduce deficits in the long term. It's a trap for the Democratic Party, a trap from which Edwards escapes.

Edwards stresses that we can't have it all, that we need to make a choice. His choice is clear: time and again throughout this campaign he has said that public investment and social programs are more important to the country than a balanced budget. After such one instance last winter, Ezra Klein aptly discussed its significance:

That's a genuinely important admission, and one that very, very few Democrats are willing to make. It's the opposite of Clintonomics, which took deficit reduction as the transcendent priority and, as Robert Reich long regretted, forsook most investment spending. It's different than most campaigners, who both promise deficit elimination and heightened spending, and so offer no real clue of how they'll conduct themselves in office. Indeed, it's a relatively rare progressive moment in national politics: A forthright argument for the importance of, and an increase in, public spending, one not shackled by a desire to drive the deficit into nothingness just so the politician can say it's been done.
Edwards isn't fiscally irresponsible; on the contrary, he would offset the costs of his programs by rolling back Bush's tax cuts for the wealthy and raising capital gains taxes for people making at least $250,000 a year. He would also consider taxing the windfall profits of oil companies and further raising marginal rates on the rich, making them higher than they were when Bush came into office. But Edwards is willing to admit that the revenue raised by these moved would not be enough to pay for universal health care, middle class tax relief, poverty reduction, action on climate change, and deficit reduction. In this sense, Edwards is running an unusually honest campaign, the sort that the Russertian smart set always claims to want.

Clinton still subscribes to the economic philosophy named after her husband: she talks longingly of the nineties and frequently says things like "Let's get back to balanced budgets," a nice idea that ignores the hard choices. Obama, by contrast, has shown signs that he's willing to break with new liberalism. I had hope for him last winter when he said, "I don't think that we should be obsessed with having a balanced budget given all of the needs that we have right now. But like Clinton, he supports pay-go and has more than a passing association with the Church of Rubin. And unlike Edwards, Obama hasn't made clear his preference for investment over a balanced budget.

At the same time, Obama and Clinton seem to advocate social spending large enough to make budget hawkishness impossible. (I say "seem" because often the depth and cost of their proposals aren't clear.) In other words, they want to have it both ways. They champion social programs, which impress the Democratic base, as well as balanced budgets, which impress the guardians of conventional opinion.

Some Democrats are unbothered by a candidate who claims to be a budget hawk as long as she or he also supports the kind of programs that the country needs. But there are two major problems with this approach. One, it's dishonest, the "progressive" counterpart to voodoo economics. Two, it won't work: when President Hillary Clinton proposes programs, the GOP would use her own paeans to balanced budgets against her. At that point she would have to make the choice she's refusing to make now, and I see no reason to believe she would make the right one. President Edwards, by contrast, having run a forthright campaign, would have a mandate for his ambitious proposals.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
DemocratSinceBirth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-04-07 10:14 AM
Response to Reply #3
10. I Never Heard Bill Say He's A Conservative Democrat


He was a Third Way leader...He was among a group of world leaders including Tony Blair and Gerhard Schroeder who wanted to move beyond the ideological debate to find pragmatic solutions to their nation's problems that could garner majority support... All three were wildy successful and all three replaced conservative predecessors... Tony Blair's fortunes declined when he followed Bush* into Iraq...
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
SaveElmer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-04-07 09:56 AM
Response to Original message
4. But, but, but...I thought Schoen was a Hillary Shill....
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
babylonsister Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-04-07 10:01 AM
Response to Reply #4
6. It's called deflection. nt
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
RubyDuby in GA Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-04-07 09:58 AM
Response to Original message
5. But...but...but...
Of course he's the strongest, that's why the damn DLC is doing everything they possibly can to neutralize him now. Ms. High and Mighty will be taken to the cleaners if she is the nominee and they know it.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Adelante Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-04-07 10:05 AM
Response to Original message
8. This won't be at all true in the GE
Second, Edwards--despite his current left wing rhetorical appeal--is actually perceived as more conservative than either Clinton or Obama.


I think part of Edwards' problem in holding onto the lead he should have in Iowa is because his present image is so different from his previous image that Iowans, who thought they knew him, are wondering who the hell he really is. Also in the GE, Edwards would be painted far, far more left than he really is, just when he tries to run to the right. Every single statement he's made in this primary race that is not conservative or moderate will be hammered over and over and over. The perception isn't that he's conservative, it's that he's confusing.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
rinsd Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-04-07 11:06 AM
Response to Original message
12. LOL, but but Hillary haters have been swearing this guy can't be trusted to do analysis!
:rofl:
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
DU AdBot (1000+ posts) Click to send private message to this author Click to view 
this author's profile Click to add 
this author to your buddy list Click to add 
this author to your Ignore list Thu Apr 25th 2024, 02:44 AM
Response to Original message
Advertisements [?]
 Top

Home » Discuss » Archives » General Discussion: Presidential (Through Nov 2009) Donate to DU

Powered by DCForum+ Version 1.1 Copyright 1997-2002 DCScripts.com
Software has been extensively modified by the DU administrators


Important Notices: By participating on this discussion board, visitors agree to abide by the rules outlined on our Rules page. Messages posted on the Democratic Underground Discussion Forums are the opinions of the individuals who post them, and do not necessarily represent the opinions of Democratic Underground, LLC.

Home  |  Discussion Forums  |  Journals |  Store  |  Donate

About DU  |  Contact Us  |  Privacy Policy

Got a message for Democratic Underground? Click here to send us a message.

© 2001 - 2011 Democratic Underground, LLC